Found a profitable system, but need some advice

[B-Rex]

Hi all.

I used to use BA a long time ago but took many years off. But recently I've been collecting data and am fairly confident I've found a profitable system at BSP.

I have a few questions before I resume my BA membership:

1) Is there a way to see how much is staked on a horse at BSP? Ie. if i dumped £50 on each of my selections at BSP early in the morning, is this going to stand out somehow?

2) I've been testing my selections by taking a few quid on them in the morning and then a few quid at BSP to log the odds data, and the average odds of BSP is about 20% higher. Is there any way to take advantage of this somehow? I'm guessing not easily as Laying the morning price and greening up later would be more expensive when odds come in, than profitable when they drift out?

3) Does BA have ability to green up at BSP (I assume not) and if not, what is the next best way to do it - just 10 seconds before start time?

Thanks for any advice or opinions

[Fugazi]

See the post I made about greyhounds at BSP.

[Anbell]

Hi all.

I used to use BA a long time ago but took many years off. But recently I've been collecting data and am fairly confident I've found a profitable system at BSP.

I have a few questions before I resume my BA membership:

1) Is there a way to see how much is staked on a horse at BSP? Ie. if i dumped £50 on each of my selections at BSP early in the morning, is this going to stand out somehow?

2) I've been testing my selections by taking a few quid on them in the morning and then a few quid at BSP to log the odds data, and the average odds of BSP is about 20% higher. Is there any way to take advantage of this somehow? I'm guessing not easily as Laying the morning price and greening up later would be more expensive when odds come in, than profitable when they drift out?

3) Does BA have ability to green up at BSP (I assume not) and if not, what is the next best way to do it - just 10 seconds before start time?

Thanks for any advice or opinions

1) viewtopic.php?t=29270
2) I think you are probably just describing the spread narrowing as the race gets closer, so no.
3) either a few seconds before start time, or you can try to green up into BSP but the BSP is not known prior to the race, so you have to guess the price. Therefore this approach is approximate.

[Fugazi]

viewtopic.php?p=356546#p356546

And this thread is something to consider as well, factor in BSP is true odds, on average, long term. It does however deviate.

[B-Rex]

Thanks for the info! That's me sorted

[B-Rex]

viewtopic.php?p=356546#p356546

And this thread is something to consider as well, factor in BSP is true odds, on average, long term. It does however deviate.

This is interesting, why would everything all be so unprofitable - is it to do with the liquidity on greyhounds, so BSP prices end up scooping up terrible odds to get matched?

[Anbell]

viewtopic.php?p=356546#p356546

And this thread is something to consider as well, factor in BSP is true odds, on average, long term. It does however deviate.

This is interesting, why would everything all be so unprofitable - is it to do with the liquidity on greyhounds, so BSP prices end up scooping up terrible odds to get matched?

It just shows that markets are mostly efficient. If there was free money lying around, someone else would probably have already picked it up before you.

[Fugazi]

viewtopic.php?p=356546#p356546

And this thread is something to consider as well, factor in BSP is true odds, on average, long term. It does however deviate.

This is interesting, why would everything all be so unprofitable - is it to do with the liquidity on greyhounds, so BSP prices end up scooping up terrible odds to get matched?

Comission.

Without comission, give or take for variance the profit / loss would be 0. This is because the market is efficient as Anbell said. The more races that are run, the closer we get to 0. The more times you flip a coin, the closer it gets to landing exactly 50% heads 50% tails. Because of comission at 2% , youre at a loss of 2% over 900,000 bets. So at £1 stakes you would expect to be at a loss of 2% of £900,000. The reason the loss is not exactly £18,000 is variance. If we had a back test of 1 billion races, you would be incredibly close to exactly a 2% loss.

[B-Rex]

Oh Ok i didn't notice 900,000 bets, that explains it then. I just saw £1 bets and 5 figure losses

Busy saturday...!

Thanks. Case closed