6f and 7f lay markets query

[Archery1969]

Didn’t someone once provide some detailed stats on laying below 1.05 at certain all weather tracks which made huge returns over a 12 month period ?

Read what I said, certain tracks, not blindly all of them.

[Fugazi]

Thanks. I will put my system back on hold until October.

Honestly worth learning how to backtest with python, could save you 3 years of laying the outsiders

Thanks

backtest with python..you've completely lost me ?

Let me get back to you on this I'll simplify the process it doesnt take much know how at all now gpt can do so much

[kenfrost]

Honestly worth learning how to backtest with python, could save you 3 years of laying the outsiders

Thanks

backtest with python..you've completely lost me ?

Let me get back to you on this I'll simplify the process it doesnt take much know how at all now gpt can do so much

Thanks, I would be very grateful!

[kenfrost]

Didn’t someone once provide some detailed stats on laying below 1.05 at certain all weather tracks which made huge returns over a 12 month period ?

Read what I said, certain tracks, not blindly all of them.

I seem to recall that too..the trouble is I have no idea where in this forum. I will try google to see if I can find the link.

[Atho55]

This is for GB only and takes the BSP as a =FLOOR(xx,0.1) value v the Month over the years, runners and race distance criteria. It does a Sum on the Win/Lose and shows the value as a % of the yearly total of each odd.

If you want to give an odd range that you bet in I can lift that bit out.

Win% by BSP Floor.png

[kenfrost]

This is for GB only and takes the BSP as a =FLOOR(xx,0.1) value v the Month over the years, runners and race distance criteria. It does a Sum on the Win/Lose and shows the value as a % of the yearly total of each odd.

If you want to give an odd range that you bet in I can lift that bit out.

Win% by BSP Floor.png

Thanks, so to check I am reading it right it is saying eg for May 18.52% of those at bsp of 1.1 won?

[Atho55]

Yes but you need to put the values into perspective. These are the underlying numbers that I get.

Numerical Win% by BSP Floor.png

[jamesedwards]

This is for GB only and takes the BSP as a =FLOOR(xx,0.1) value v the Month over the years, runners and race distance criteria. It does a Sum on the Win/Lose and shows the value as a % of the yearly total of each odd.

If you want to give an odd range that you bet in I can lift that bit out.

Win% by BSP Floor.png

Thanks, so to check I am reading it right it is saying eg for May 18.52% of those at bsp of 1.1 won?

I don't think so. Looks to me like it's saying that for 1.1, 18.52% of the total year were in May. What the 1.1 is a measure of is not clear. Perhaps could be number of winners with that BSP?

[Atho55]

It`s looking at many years as per the Slicer box. All those years add up to a monthly total. Those monthly totals add up to a row total. Monthly Total/Row Total.

Doing a sum on the win lose only sums the 1`s which I thought the OP was looking for that. He is Laying so looking for any increase in win rates in May v other months.

[jamesedwards]

It`s looking at many years as per the Slicer box. All those years add up to a monthly total. Those monthly totals add up to a row total. Monthly Total/Row Total.

Doing a sum on the win lose only sums the 1`s which I thought the OP was looking for that. He is Laying so looking for any increase in win rates in May v other months.

It would be interesting to see the win% by BSP ranges by month. This might show whether prices of winners grow during this time of year.

The OP is trading in-running though so might be less interested in BSP data, and more in lowest traded prices.

[kenfrost]

It`s looking at many years as per the Slicer box. All those years add up to a monthly total. Those monthly totals add up to a row total. Monthly Total/Row Total.

Doing a sum on the win lose only sums the 1`s which I thought the OP was looking for that. He is Laying so looking for any increase in win rates in May v other months.

Thanks for your help on this.

I am now a bit confused, taking eg May at 1.1 raw data shows 5 out of a total of 27 (which gives your original 18% figure). That bit I understand, but what I don't understand (and apologies for being thick) is how is the 5 for May calculated please?

eg is it the win ratio over the lose ratio (ie at those odds in May 5 times the number of horses won than lost?).

Thanks and apologies for my slowness to grasp this.

[elofan0]

There are some stats here but what works one day dont work next day
https://www.adrianmassey.com/web1/index.php

[Atho55]

I applied your criteria of race type and No of runners to all of the database to try and get to some meaningful values. So at that specific BSP odd over the range of years there have been 8 instances that met your criteria, 5 of which won. Doing a Sum on the Win/Lose = 5, Doing a Count would be 8. The idea was to show how many wins in May v how many wins in the other months over all the years.

These are the underlying records

5 comes from Sum of Win Lose highlighted Yellow.png

[kenfrost]

I applied your criteria of race type and No of runners to all of the database to try and get to some meaningful values. So at that specific BSP odd over the range of years there have been 8 instances that met your criteria, 5 of which won. Doing a Sum on the Win/Lose = 5, Doing a Count would be 8. The idea was to show how many wins in May v how many wins in the other months over all the years.

These are the underlying records


5 comes from Sum of Win Lose highlighted Yellow.png

Thanks, got it

is there a way of drilling down eg just using 1.1 as an example - how many races in total were there where the bsp was 1.1?

I don't want to waste your time, as I am sure you have better things to do, so please ignore if you are busy.

Thanks

[Atho55]

This is count of Win/Lose so includes both winners and losers

This is Count of Win Lose and = 34.png