UK General Election July 4th 2024 - Trading ONLY thread

[greenmark]

YouGov poll after the debate has Cons 19% & Reform 17%... Which if you add them together is pretty close to Labs 40%... (maybe even more given margin for error)

https://yougov.co.uk/elections/uk/2024

Will Reform take many votes off Labour. I'd think they'll take a lot off the Tories.

[LeTiss]

Sunak the Liar

All politicians are liars. Both left and right, always have been

[Euler]

You can't claim Sunak genuinely believes each individual will be paying £2000 in extra tax, which is what he is claiming, knowing that some idiots will believe him.

Blair may have knowingly lied, or it could have been a genuine belief. You can't read his mind, but you don't need to with Sunak the Liar, so there is a clear difference between the two.

My guess is that it will almost certainly be more than that on average. I'd be willing to bet on it.

I don't think Labour will be able to show restraint with a large majority and will just head off down the tax and spend route in spectacular style.

Anyhow, let's not let the thread drift off to political debate and lets keep it on a trading footing.

[LeTiss]

You can see why so many are calling for a PR system!

REFORM - 20% or higher of the vote LTP 4.2 Fav
LIB DEMS - 8-9% of the vote LTP 3.05 Fav

REFORM seats 1-2 LTP 2.64 Fav
LIB DEMS 41 seats or more LTP 1.61 Fav

That's a nonsense it really is, and doesn't reflect the public feeling at all

[Emmson]

I don't think Labour will be able to show restraint with a large majority and will just head off down the tax and spend route in spectacular style.

Cognitive Bias from Euler

[greenmark]

I don't think Labour will be able to show restraint with a large majority and will just head off down the tax and spend route in spectacular style.

Cognitive Bias from Euler

Taxation decisions between Labour/Tory are pretty similar. The notion that a Tory govt will reduce tax is nonsense. The tax burden fits the economic environment. And both parties need raise govt funds at the same level.

The tax debate is about where that tax is spent. I guarantee if Labour win the tax burden will be broadly the same.
But anyhow I'm struggling to see any value in this GE. Even Reform's intervention has barely registered, unless you fancy a Grand National type punt.
It's so static.
Just waiting for that colossal gaff to stir the pot.

[Euler]

Cognitive Bias from Euler

Taxation decisions between Labour/Tory are pretty similar. The notion that a Tory govt will reduce tax is nonsense. The tax burden fits the economic environment. And both parties need raise govt funds at the same level.

The tax debate is about where that tax is spent. I guarantee if Labour win the tax burden will be broadly the same.
But anyhow I'm struggling to see any value in this GE. Even Reform's intervention has barely registered, unless you fancy a Grand National type punt.
It's so static.
Just waiting for that colossal gaff to stir the pot.

I agree generally.

Covid, the War in Ukraine and the subsequent inflation has caused a structural deficit.

It's just that the left tend to have tax and spend as an ideology and the right tend not to.

But either will face a high structural debt when the assume office.

[Euler]

Norway has a 1.6 Trillion Sovereign Wealth Fund and after North Sea Oil was discovered we could have had one too.

It's a good model

[LeTiss]

Labour say they going to help 80,000 first time buyers get on the housing ladder over 5 years or the duration of the next parliament.

The ONS said 6.7 million need housing.

So, Labour going to help just over 1% ?

6.7 million need housing

Might have helped if we stopped 6 million turning up in dinghies

[Archery1969]

Latest YouGov poll states Reform UK have pulled to within 2 points of the conservatives.

[jimibt]

just reminding that we're off on the tangent again of ignoring the thread title!!

[Derek27]

Sunak's visiting Bishop Aukland where they have an 8K majority and refusing to speak to anyone, whereas Rachel Reeves is in Aldershot, a seat the Conservatives have held for 100 years and have a 17K majority.

Serious concerns amongst cabinet ministers that Reform UK could go ahead of the Tories.

Screenshot 2024-06-08 193546.gif

[Wade]

Hi folks, I'm curious why the Conservative Majority selection has been trading higher in the Next Government market as opposed to the Overall Majority market. I get that the election result and forming a government are different things, but in what circumstances would a party get a majority result in the election, but then not form a majority government?

Hope this isn't a dumb question. As an Aussie I'm not across the finer details of the UK parliamentary process.

[jamesedwards]

Hi folks, I'm curious why the Conservative Majority selection has been trading higher in the Next Government market as opposed to the Overall Majority market. I get that the election result and forming a government are different things, but in what circumstances would a party get a majority result in the election, but then not form a majority government?

Hope this isn't a dumb question. As an Aussie I'm not across the finer details of the UK parliamentary process.

From the BF rules A Coalition Government is one which has members from at least two parties holding the position of full cabinet minister, those described as 'also attending' or similar will not count.. A minority Government would see all the Cabinet posts filled by one party, but supply and confidence would be enjoyed by that party by one or more other parties in Parliament in order to pass votes and budgets etc.

So it's possible for a party to have a majority and yet technically be in coalition if they choose to appoint a cabinet minister from another party.

If I remember correctly during WW2 the Conservative government had Labour members in the cabinet.

A Labour majority government could choose to appoint an SNP member as Minister of Scotland, or a Conservative majority government could appoint Reform's Farage as a Minister for Immigration. Unlikely, but possible.

[Wade]

Hi folks, I'm curious why the Conservative Majority selection has been trading higher in the Next Government market as opposed to the Overall Majority market. I get that the election result and forming a government are different things, but in what circumstances would a party get a majority result in the election, but then not form a majority government?

Hope this isn't a dumb question. As an Aussie I'm not across the finer details of the UK parliamentary process.

From the BF rules A Coalition Government is one which has members from at least two parties holding the position of full cabinet minister, those described as 'also attending' or similar will not count.. A minority Government would see all the Cabinet posts filled by one party, but supply and confidence would be enjoyed by that party by one or more other parties in Parliament in order to pass votes and budgets etc.

So it's possible for a party to have a majority and yet technically be in coalition if they choose to appoint a cabinet minister from another party.

If I remember correctly during WW2 the Conservative government had Labour members in the cabinet.

A Labour majority government could choose to appoint an SNP member as Minister of Scotland, or a Conservative majority government could appoint Reform's Farage as a Minister for Immigration. Unlikely, but possible.

Got it, thanks James.