UK General Election July 4th 2024 - Trading ONLY thread

[LeTiss]

This could turn out to be one of the strangest GE's ever

I see the polls this morning are predicting:
35% Labour
24% Reform
15% bar

That's a very low % for Labour, considering a 'potential' landslide

[Euler]

All the polls seem a little shot. I'm not sure I really trust them anyhow. They may give a general feel, but are short on specifics.

[Emmson]

NO WAY is Labour only receiving 3 more % points of vote share than under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019

in 2017 Labour again under Corbyn received 40% of vote share

[jimibt]

to put it another way:

In the echo of the booth, whispers untold, numbers dance, stories unfold.
Polls sway like reeds in a fickle breeze, but truth hides behind their statistical tease.

[sionascaig]

Polls seem to be all over the shop... I am seeing some with Reform 0 MP's another with 5. The market certainly seems to think there will be a few with Farage 1.2 last time I looked.

The Telegraph (Savanta poll) has Cons < 60 MPs (with Reform 0) & suggests Liberals could become official opposition. Suspect they have picked the extreme ends of the poll.

It does look like a very large number of seats are just too close to call and you can come up with a big variation on seat outcomes just by having slightly different views on how the seats will fall.

[greenmark]

to put it another way:

In the echo of the booth, whispers untold, numbers dance, stories unfold.
Polls sway like reeds in a fickle breeze, but truth hides behind their statistical tease.

Crikey jimibt it took me a while to uravel that one. Very poetic. The political truth is polling day, we will have to live with that for another parliament lets hope it's better than x number of years.

[Derek27]

I'm still struggling to understand what's wrong with placing a bet on a summer election when you know it's going to happen. Do they expect him to bet on Autumn?

[Archery1969]

Sir John Curtis is saying that the poll indicators are showing The conservatives are on course to have less seats than they did in 1906. But the polls don’t agree on how much conservative support is dropping in seats they already hold. And that could be the key to who actually wins. The conservatives only need to hold 70% of their vote and can afford to lose 30% to Labour and Reform UK.

Does the above make any sense to anyone as I not sure I understand what he is saying ?

[Derek27]

Didn't realise Question Time today was another leadership battle. I just can't believe Sunak's luck to have yet another scandel just before he goes on air. If I were him I'd just throw in the towel before it gets any worse.

[Derek27]

Sunak admits he hasn't decided yet what the punishment will be for refusing national service but admits withdrawal of finance, credit, driving licences are under consideration.

[Archery1969]

I think Sir Kier needs to stop mentioning Corbyn. Undecided voters won’t want to hear that person mentioned.

[LeTiss]

Sunak admits he hasn't decided yet what the punishment will be for refusing national service but admits withdrawal of finance, credit, driving licences are under consideration.

He doesn't need to think of a punishment when he knows he'll be out of the job in 2 weeks

[LeTiss]

I think Sir Kier needs to stop mentioning Corbyn. Undecided voters won’t want to hear that person mentioned.

Agreed. Corbyn is a vote loser

[greenmark]

C4 correspondent just described the election campaign overall as "unedifying". Say's it all. Everyone of us should weigh the issues and vote with the benefit of hindsight and a judgement about which of the scoundrels before us can do better than the last lot.

[Derek27]

Sunak says any Conservative member that's bet on when the GE will take place will face the full force of the law!

Since when has it been illegal for party members to place political bets?