Is it worth starting?

[azzadeath]

Having been actively trading horses myself for the last decade i have been unprofitable for the last 2 years, Breaking even to be honest but when i did have an edge it was amazing, I did the research , automation did the rest, and you wouldn't believe how simple it was, But that (simplicity) was the issue and so that was the end of that, Currently i just record markets and occasionally dip in and out with minimum stakes, So in my case having stared at ladders for the last decade and back at square one I'm not an example of experience wins the day, However I'm pretty sure plenty come in , some with lots of programming experience and become successful very quicky, I'm not ready to give up though and success is closer than you think.

[Kai]

So in my case having stared at ladders for the last decade and back at square one I'm not an example of experience wins the day

Tbh it's a matter of perspective on what constitutes a win in the first place. For some that would be not spending the best decades of their life watching prices go down all day (or sometimes up).

Not like you're going to get a retirement plaque or anything, or any real credit for your work or doing well. If anything others will likely try and discredit you, since people usually love hating on others for all the wrong reasons. Even when technically winning on the market you could easily be losing out on life, I think that's where most of the FOMO comes from for traders, there are always pros and cons with everything.

So if it's not something one particularly enjoys doing then surely there are easier ways to try and make a few quid out there.

We must not allow our egos to blindly lead us into the sunk-cost fallacy bias.

[Fugazi]

Having been actively trading horses myself for the last decade i have been unprofitable for the last 2 years, Breaking even to be honest but when i did have an edge it was amazing, I did the research , automation did the rest, and you wouldn't believe how simple it was, But that (simplicity) was the issue and so that was the end of that, Currently i just record markets and occasionally dip in and out with minimum stakes, So in my case having stared at ladders for the last decade and back at square one I'm not an example of experience wins the day, However I'm pretty sure plenty come in , some with lots of programming experience and become successful very quicky, I'm not ready to give up though and success is closer than you think.

Damn thats quite something the amount of time dedicated. I think you've hit the nail on the head though. Markets have changed but you haven't - 10 years could have been spent getting that coding experience.

Quite honestly though, I feel the most successful are those that have all day every day to commit. Having learned bits of python myself its bloody difficult when youre working fulltime and have lots of hobbies when youre not at work.

[azzadeath]

For me its a case of "I've come this far, i don't want to throw in the towel just yet" Also having been previously profitable its incredibly satisfying and rewarding when you refresh your p+l screen at the end of the day/week/month and watch your account grow, Knowing what's possible keeps me plodding on otherwise i most certainly would not be still trying at this point,
Having said that i do enjoy the ride of trying to connect the dots and solve one of the most difficult puzzles there is

[senti]

Profit is just a sum of the strategies you employ. If that sum is made up by a main strategy it's a problem if it stops working. Specialization to a certain point yes, but at that point I would go for numerous of ways to approach the market.

A thick playbook will consist of -EV and +EV strategies, it will give you a better overview and perhaps not give you the same feeling of "I'm not profitable anymore" even though you might be as a sum.

The key is to make distinctions and not let the aggregated view dictate. If a -EV strategy can be broken down into 10 and 3 of them shows +EV, then the happy days aren't over just yet!

[Kai]

Ye, just have to avoid that initial mind-field

The cognitive bias one, those same situations where you used to regularly take losses can for sure become your newfound edge

[Big Bad Barney]

imo it boils down to if you enjoy it. Don't think you're gonna get rich doing this. Ironically, the peeps that seem to make the money are those that don't do it for money.

'Worth starting'. Is that a purely financial question? Break it down into two parts I guess...

The market for anything over time trends to an equilibrium, right? The time for high risk and big profits is always at the start.

The other thing to consider is that people DO enjoy trading. Therefore people are willing to do it for less money.

The reason accountants get paid well is not because it's hard, its because its boring as bat shit, so less people want to do it.

Also rainman enjoys trading...

[Fugazi]

imo it boils down to if you enjoy it. Don't think you're gonna get rich doing this. Ironically, the peeps that seem to make the money are those that don't do it for money.

'Worth starting'. Is that a purely financial question? Break it down into two parts I guess...

The market for anything over time trends to an equilibrium, right? The time for high risk and big profits is always at the start.

The other thing to consider is that people DO enjoy trading. Therefore people are willing to do it for less money.

The reason accountants get paid well is not because it's hard, its because its boring as bat shit, so less people want to do it.

Also rainman enjoys trading...

I don't think any of us started this purely just for fun

[Big Bad Barney]

I don't think any of us started this purely just for fun

Surely somebody did! Is reward seeking behaviour the same thing as fun? or is that a thrill? Are they the same thing? I'm not sure. Would you do anything at all if you had no dopamine?

Any vocational endeavour is only partially a financial decision unless you are a robot. Robots look for the greatest return for the least amount of effort and have no dopamine in their brain. Now, would a robot go look on Betfair, or would they go work for the government and form the guise of a histrionic gumby in human skin? (that's a rhetorical question)

Or maybe challenge is fun, I dunno. I think for one to be in a state of flow, the difficulty of the activity you are performing has to be at the boundary of your capabilities, elsewise it is boring (or frustrating).

Why do people play sudoku? Would they play sudoku all day if they could get financial return?

The other question is, at what point do you move on? Crapload of peeps have come and gone over the past 25 years or whatever...why do they move on? There has to be a reason.

[senti]

Some of us did it for the fun or the challenge. Trading is then viewed as a game and not a job.

The hours that were once absorbed by other types of games are now substituted by the trading game. The quest for self-actualization is always there by playing the game better and better. But setting an income expectation from a game isn't realistic in the first place.

[iambic_pentameter]

Although I'm not where I want to be / should be with my trading, since being involved in with the markets there have been other benefits:

I've learnt how to think about things in a more balanced manner.
I've gained more confidence, which has helped me with my day job and explore other opportunities.
I've interacted with some genuinely lovely, helpful and decent people.

Hopefully any newcomer who reads this, will see that learning to trade is a worthwhile endeavour, regardless of the financial outcome.

Iambic

[Fugazi]

I don't think any of us started this purely just for fun

Surely somebody did! Is reward seeking behaviour the same thing as fun? or is that a thrill? Are they the same thing? I'm not sure. Would you do anything at all if you had no dopamine?

Any vocational endeavour is only partially a financial decision unless you are a robot. Robots look for the greatest return for the least amount of effort and have no dopamine in their brain. Now, would a robot go look on Betfair, or would they go work for the government and form the guise of a histrionic gumby in human skin? (that's a rhetorical question)

Or maybe challenge is fun, I dunno. I think for one to be in a state of flow, the difficulty of the activity you are performing has to be at the boundary of your capabilities, elsewise it is boring (or frustrating).

Why do people play sudoku? Would they play sudoku all day if they could get financial return?

The other question is, at what point do you move on? Crapload of peeps have come and gone over the past 25 years or whatever...why do they move on? There has to be a reason.

I think people start this thinking it might be easy money and that it will be fun because they will make money. Nobody sees Bet Angel and thinks ''ah this will lose me money, but it will be fun" On some level they believe eventually they will make money and that is the real driving force.

They then tell themselves it is just for fun / a hobby as a coping mechanism to stick with it until they are profitable. Eventually some hit a point where they say "you know what, this isn't worth the sacrifices anymore". Some hit that moment in 2 weeks. Some take 15 years.

Do we REALLY think watching ladders in a room for hours is more fun than going to the races, having a punt and some beers with friends?

It is about money.

[Big Bad Barney]

I think people start this thinking it might be easy money and that it will be fun because they will make money. Nobody sees Bet Angel and thinks ''ah this will lose me money, but it will be fun" On some level they believe eventually they will make money and that is the real driving force.

They then tell themselves it is just for fun / a hobby as a coping mechanism to stick with it until they are profitable. Eventually some hit a point where they say "you know what, this isn't worth the sacrifices anymore". Some hit that moment in 2 weeks. Some take 15 years.

You could be right.

Do we REALLY think watching ladders in a room for hours is more fun than going to the races, having a punt and some beers with friends?

It is about money.

I'd rather be looking at ladders than punting or having beers. I only like to gamble/punt if I know or believe the edge is in my favour. It's the search for the illusion of control...I don''t think anyone would gamble if they didn't believe the edge was in their favour.

Money is just one component of what motivates people and beyond a certain point it becomes purely a game. Plenty of super rich people out there that continue to 'work'....

But then....life is just a big game with people playing out scripts....if you read that Games People Play book by Eric Berne...good book..

[Big Bad Barney]

I've learnt how to think about things in a more balanced manner.
I've gained more confidence, which has helped me with my day job and explore other opportunities.
I've interacted with some genuinely lovely, helpful and decent people.

Hopefully any newcomer who reads this, will see that learning to trade is a worthwhile endeavour, regardless of the financial outcome.

I reckon that's good advice!

[azzadeath]

For the most part I've set the bar pretty low and id be happy if i could make enough currently to pay the BA subscription as that would mean i have a positive edge regardless of whether its scalable or not.
If i had spent the hours i have spent on trading pushing trolleys around Sainsburys car park at this point id have considerable assets but then again id have learned nothing apart from how to manage trolleys and burn a few calories on the way.
For me on a more personal basis being autistic has been the main issue as i believe i focus far too much on the less obvious aspects, I genuinely cant see the wood for the trees sometimes and although you would think this is an advantage as some on here have alluded to previously, its not really in my case
I have tried picking the bones out of terabytes of screen recordings but i always get led down the garden path,