UK General Election July 4th 2024 - Trading ONLY thread

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
Post Reply
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 26234
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

Emmson wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 12:34 pm
I have decided where to cast my vote and it's a fringe candidate. Social Democratic Party who are not crackpots or extremists, having just perused their manifesto, they believe in what I believe in.
Ultimately people should vote for a local candidate that serves there needs. This is where party politics messes things up. But I accept, that I'm a complete idealist in this respect and it isn't going to change.
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

Euler wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 2:02 pm
Emmson wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 12:34 pm
I have decided where to cast my vote and it's a fringe candidate. Social Democratic Party who are not crackpots or extremists, having just perused their manifesto, they believe in what I believe in.
Ultimately people should vote for a local candidate that serves there needs. This is where party politics messes things up. But I accept, that I'm a complete idealist in this respect and it isn't going to change.
The UK needs PR.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 26234
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

PR doesn't represent local needs, though. Maybe smaller constituencies?

I'll be honest, I've no idea what the answer is. I know it just isn't party politics as that makes candidates vote with the party regardless of the issue.
greenmark
Posts: 6265
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

Archery1969 wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 2:11 pm
Euler wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 2:02 pm
Emmson wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 12:34 pm
I have decided where to cast my vote and it's a fringe candidate. Social Democratic Party who are not crackpots or extremists, having just perused their manifesto, they believe in what I believe in.
Ultimately people should vote for a local candidate that serves there needs. This is where party politics messes things up. But I accept, that I'm a complete idealist in this respect and it isn't going to change.
The UK needs PR.
How would you feel about Reform having 20% power?
He won't have 20% power via constituencies voting for him.
Our system is to vote for who you want to represent you in Parliament. Too many of us seem to have forgotten that important connection.
Reform is unlikely to win a single constituency. Why? They're racist, and have no coherent costed policies. And the odds would appear to show 80% of the population agree.
Emmson
Posts: 3576
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

Reform will win some seats and Farage is almost certain to win Clacton.
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

greenmark wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 2:47 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 2:11 pm
Euler wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 2:02 pm


Ultimately people should vote for a local candidate that serves there needs. This is where party politics messes things up. But I accept, that I'm a complete idealist in this respect and it isn't going to change.
The UK needs PR.
How would you feel about Reform having 20% power?
He won't have 20% power via constituencies voting for him.
Our system is to vote for who you want to represent you in Parliament. Too many of us seem to have forgotten that important connection.
Reform is unlikely to win a single constituency. Why? They're racist, and have no coherent costed policies. And the odds would appear to show 80% of the population agree.
Because that means 20% of the population agree with Farage and Reform. If you start ignoring part of a population to be unheard or represented then they become disenfranchised from society, more likely to commit crimes, angry at others taking their perceived jobs and housing. Much of that is playing out along the south coast of England. With first past the post, only 1 of 2 parties can ever be elected with the winner securing less than 50% of the vote share. So, Labour or Tory wins but half never voted for the eventual winner. At least with PR every persons vote is likely to mean they are represented in the House of Commons and can raise questions on their behalf. Makes more people feel more engaged with the process overall.

Labour are about to win an overwhelming majority, Kier already said if/when that happens that he going to upset allot of people who didn’t vote for him and have no one to argue on their behalf where it matters.

And remember, all it needs is one or more person to feel left out and you get extremes, like one or more MP being abused or god forbid murdered.

If Farage or Reform get 8 million votes then that’s a large party of the population who you could call racist or bigots etc. But what you going to do with them, you can’t silence them or lock them up as the UK can’t even lock up 82,000 satisfactorily.

And no, i didn’t vote for Farage via my postal vote, just pointing out that you need to make the system more fairer.

Don’t forget, the turnout is expected to be ver low, why is that ?, because people feel excluded, all MPs are liars and nothing will really change and they can’t be bothered. That’s not a good way to run and govern in a democracy, is it ?

Peace. 🤠
greenmark
Posts: 6265
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

Archery1969 wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 3:15 pm
greenmark wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 2:47 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 2:11 pm


The UK needs PR.
How would you feel about Reform having 20% power?
He won't have 20% power via constituencies voting for him.
Our system is to vote for who you want to represent you in Parliament. Too many of us seem to have forgotten that important connection.
Reform is unlikely to win a single constituency. Why? They're racist, and have no coherent costed policies. And the odds would appear to show 80% of the population agree.
Because that means 20% of the population agree with Farage and Reform. If you start ignoring part of a population to be unheard or represented then they become disenfranchised from society, more likely to commit crimes, angry at others taking their perceived jobs and housing. Much of that is playing out along the south coast of England. With first past the post, only 1 of 2 parties can ever be elected with the winner securing less than 50% of the vote share. So, Labour or Tory wins but half never voted for the eventual winner. At least with PR every persons vote is likely to mean they are represented in the House of Commons and can raise questions on their behalf. Makes more people feel more engaged with the process overall.

Labour are about to win an overwhelming majority, Kier already said if/when that happens that he going to upset allot of people who didn’t vote for him and have no one to argue on their behalf where it matters.

And remember, all it needs is one or more person to feel left out and you get extremes, like one or more MP being abused or god forbid murdered.

If Farage or Reform get 8 million votes then that’s a large party of the population who you could call racist or bigots etc. But what you going to do with them, you can’t silence them or lock them up as the UK can’t even lock up 82,000 satisfactorily.

And no, i didn’t vote for Farage via my postal vote, just pointing out that you need to make the system more fairer.

Don’t forget, the turnout is expected to be ver low, why is that ?, because people feel excluded, all MPs are liars and nothing will really change and they can’t be bothered. That’s not a good way to run and govern in a democracy, is it ?

Peace. 🤠
IMO Reforn have gained traction because of the way the country has been run. Some of us are grumpy and heading right (not me) because heading left is almost unthinkable. Even if Labour win it will be a right of centre govt. It'll just be left of looney Liz et al.
Let's see what happens. Feel free to post stuff of your new life in Canada. A grizzly or racoon or great lake or forest wilderness......do I feel envy? Yes I do! :-)
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

greenmark wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 5:30 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 3:15 pm
greenmark wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 2:47 pm

How would you feel about Reform having 20% power?
He won't have 20% power via constituencies voting for him.
Our system is to vote for who you want to represent you in Parliament. Too many of us seem to have forgotten that important connection.
Reform is unlikely to win a single constituency. Why? They're racist, and have no coherent costed policies. And the odds would appear to show 80% of the population agree.
Because that means 20% of the population agree with Farage and Reform. If you start ignoring part of a population to be unheard or represented then they become disenfranchised from society, more likely to commit crimes, angry at others taking their perceived jobs and housing. Much of that is playing out along the south coast of England. With first past the post, only 1 of 2 parties can ever be elected with the winner securing less than 50% of the vote share. So, Labour or Tory wins but half never voted for the eventual winner. At least with PR every persons vote is likely to mean they are represented in the House of Commons and can raise questions on their behalf. Makes more people feel more engaged with the process overall.

Labour are about to win an overwhelming majority, Kier already said if/when that happens that he going to upset allot of people who didn’t vote for him and have no one to argue on their behalf where it matters.

And remember, all it needs is one or more person to feel left out and you get extremes, like one or more MP being abused or god forbid murdered.

If Farage or Reform get 8 million votes then that’s a large party of the population who you could call racist or bigots etc. But what you going to do with them, you can’t silence them or lock them up as the UK can’t even lock up 82,000 satisfactorily.

And no, i didn’t vote for Farage via my postal vote, just pointing out that you need to make the system more fairer.

Don’t forget, the turnout is expected to be ver low, why is that ?, because people feel excluded, all MPs are liars and nothing will really change and they can’t be bothered. That’s not a good way to run and govern in a democracy, is it ?

Peace. 🤠
IMO Reforn have gained traction because of the way the country has been run. Some of us are grumpy and heading right (not me) because heading left is almost unthinkable. Even if Labour win it will be a right of centre govt. It'll just be left of looney Liz et al.
Let's see what happens. Feel free to post stuff of your new life in Canada. A grizzly or racoon or great lake or forest wilderness......do I feel envy? Yes I do! :-)
Sunday morning was interesting and jaw dropping. Was outside my log cabin having breakfast. 3 cubs wondered to the front, rolling around and having fun. Didn’t have a camera to hand and didn’t want to get up to get one as didn’t want to spook them. I also knew that mum wouldn’t be far behind. I kinda froze as didn’t have my firearm with me either, not that one would while having breakfast. Obviously would not harm them unless mum got too close for comfort etc. Just sat there watching them for 20 mins or so. Then, out of the woods/thick bush along comes a Grizzly, yep, mum!!! She looks over at me, looks at her cubs and decides to sit. Cubs jumping all over her. One the one hand I felt very privileged but on the other thinking I hope they don’t want my breakfast. After another 10 mins, she gets up, I will admit, started shaking but they all walked off. Annoyed I didn’t have a camera but just content that I saw something that most people will never get to see, even in Canada. Makes you think about what’s important and what’s not.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 25157
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

I spoke to a neighbour who said he was going to vote Labour. I informed him he can't because he doesn't have any photo ID.

It doesn't matter in this case because I don't believe this flipping lazy git could ever be arsed to go to the polling station - sounds like a pipe dream, but I do wonder how many votes Labour have lost due to these rules.
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 6:15 pm
I spoke to a neighbour who said he was going to vote Labour. I informed him he can't because he doesn't have any photo ID.

It doesn't matter in this case because I don't believe this flipping lazy git could ever be arsed to go to the polling station - sounds like a pipe dream, but I do wonder how many votes Labour have lost due to these rules.
No passport, driving license, bus pass or any of the other forms of ID ?

Probably doesn’t just apply to Labour voters.

My sister in the UK emailed me and said the person in the voting office asked for ID but didn’t even look at it and her husband pointed out that my sister had her driving license upside down anyway. 🤣
Emmson
Posts: 3576
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

In the end I could not go through with the frivolity and self-indulgence of voting for an ultra- fringe party even though I believe in their manifesto having perused it.

Labour Voter Here!
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

My postal vote went to conservatives. Reason, Rishi while chancellor got me through a difficult time, mentally with 80% of my salary. For that, I was prepared to forgive the partying, lies and broken promises. Mr Blair while interviewed said he would not of agreed to the same but left it upto HMRC to decide on household required incomes. Appreciate Kier may have done differently but for me he is hiding something which unfortunately for the UK will raise its head soon. 👍
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 25157
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

Archery1969 wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 6:25 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 6:15 pm
I spoke to a neighbour who said he was going to vote Labour. I informed him he can't because he doesn't have any photo ID.

It doesn't matter in this case because I don't believe this flipping lazy git could ever be arsed to go to the polling station - sounds like a pipe dream, but I do wonder how many votes Labour have lost due to these rules.
No passport, driving license, bus pass or any of the other forms of ID ?

Probably doesn’t just apply to Labour voters.

My sister in the UK emailed me and said the person in the voting office asked for ID but didn’t even look at it and her husband pointed out that my sister had her driving license upside down anyway. 🤣
There is a hell of a lot of homeless in the UK. I would imagine many of them may have lost or not have any ID, and wouldn't need it, and I doubt many of them would be voting for Suella Braverman & Co.
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:15 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 6:25 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 6:15 pm
I spoke to a neighbour who said he was going to vote Labour. I informed him he can't because he doesn't have any photo ID.

It doesn't matter in this case because I don't believe this flipping lazy git could ever be arsed to go to the polling station - sounds like a pipe dream, but I do wonder how many votes Labour have lost due to these rules.
No passport, driving license, bus pass or any of the other forms of ID ?

Probably doesn’t just apply to Labour voters.

My sister in the UK emailed me and said the person in the voting office asked for ID but didn’t even look at it and her husband pointed out that my sister had her driving license upside down anyway. 🤣
There is a hell of a lot of homeless in the UK. I would imagine many of them may have lost or not have any ID, and wouldn't need it, and I doubt many of them would be voting for Suella Braverman & Co.
What’s your definition of homelessness Derek. People living on the streets or living in a hotel or sheltered accommodation. I realise they are combined in statistics but for me there is a difference, one has a roof and the other does not etc.

Did Labour when last in power fix the homeless problem in England, did Labour fix the homeless problem in Wales and did the SNP fix the homeless problem in Scotland ? Not arguing, just a question ?

I seem to remember someone selling £340 Billion gold reserves, promised to pay it back, didn’t and yet still didn’t fix homelessness. Makes you wonder, all liars or just prioritise until the next election.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 26234
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

Markets pointing to a high turnout. Not sure who that favours.
Post Reply

Return to “Political betting & arguing”