Financial market techniques applied to pre-live

[Oliveira05]

information that could contribute to an analysis of the pre-live horse market and I was curious, would anyone know how to answer whether graphical analysis of the financial market could help?

[oferns]

So watch the financial markets and use it to trade the horses?

[SteamedHams]

There have been quite a few theses/dissertations on using financial modelling and related concepts to try build a profitable horse racing model. To the best of my knowledge none have been successful, although admittedly if you uncovered a massive edge you'd probably write a thesis about a different subject or say screw the degree altogether

I'm aware of at least 1 model that produced a small theoretical profit but required conditions that could not be replicated in the real world.

There's absolutely some crossover but it's an area that has been extensively explored by a bunch of really smart people so I'd be surprised if there was much fruit left on that tree. I'm often wrong though so don't let me dissuade you from giving it a crack!

[Euler]

My experience of people doing this is that they are looking at the wrong models and markets. They are interlinked but not in a way that you would expect.

In financials all prices can rise and fall together on some news or sentiment. That's not possible in sports, as all prices are related.

Sports are more similar to options, than stocks.

I've done lost of work on the mathematics of the markets, but I'm in no rush to publish them as I can't see any advantage in doing so, and some academic will probably write a paper to refute it. I'd rather just get on with using my knowledge.

[ruthlessimon]

No harm in checking for momentum and/or mean-reversion

[eightbo]

In my first few years, I consumed a bunch of material relating to financial markets/trading, and found most fundamental concepts highly relevant.

If you want anything to do with sports, though check out the Bet Angel YouTube channel if you haven't already, it's the best general information resource out there hands down.

A good approach would be to nail the fundamentals (bankroll management, +EV, your personal risk tolerance levels etc.) while experimenting on small stakes, tweak each variable one at a time and aggressively look for places of value in the markets and scale up your operation only when you can create consistent results.  If you struggle to execute your trading plan, look at reducing risk and/or improving your edge to ease the psychological impact.  You'll be less worried about the outcome when you win 2/3 trades consistently, but even winning 2/3 trades if you take positions for large %'s of your trading capital then you'll still feel like you "need" a certain outcome.  Additionally, risking too much per trade even with a profitable edge simply doesn't work, e.g. here's a simulation of 30% risk:

◘.png

...and here's 70% risk, even with a good start, you'll still zero out later:

○.png

If you're naturally aggressive, apply prudency.  If you're naturally fearful, take more chances.

Here's a YT playlist thats a fusion of jokes and excellent information to get you started:

And here's a good YT channel for shorter videos (<10min)

[oferns]

The techniques I use trading the financial markets, I also use while trading sports. Markets are more similar than they are not. Everyone wants value and greed & fear exist in both.

You are the one who has to see if techniques which work there are transferable here, nobody can see it for you or allow the chance for trust in those techniques to be built but you.

That being said, product knowledge with an understanding of market dynamics can be a very powerful combination.

You can possibly get momentum going with what you already possess on the journey to becoming well rounded.

[Kai]

I think the presence (or lack of) financial trading jargon basically indicates how similar (or different) they are.

In other words the terminology that overlaps will probably be the similarity you're looking for? Purely logically speaking there.

But ye, "something similar to options" has been my go-to reply to any outside subquestions from knowers, on wtf I trade.

Very much looking forward to exploring the financial side more though. The basic reasoning being if you're experienced here on betting exchanges you should know exactly what you're looking for, so then it should mostly be a question of where you're going to find that out there.

[newallin]

In my opinion the best financial market thing can be applied in horse racing markets it is so call scalping order flow like fm traders doing on DOM using Jigsaw or SC. Not any TA nonsense in so short term time scale like 5min before race starts. But it is only my opinion and many don't have ro agree with me.

[Fugazi]

In my first few years, I consumed a bunch of material relating to financial markets/trading, and found most fundamental concepts highly relevant.

If you want anything to do with sports, though check out the Bet Angel YouTube channel if you haven't already, it's the best general information resource out there hands down.

A good approach would be to nail the fundamentals (bankroll management, +EV, your personal risk tolerance levels etc.) while experimenting on small stakes, tweak each variable one at a time and aggressively look for places of value in the markets and scale up your operation only when you can create consistent results.  If you struggle to execute your trading plan, look at reducing risk and/or improving your edge to ease the psychological impact.  You'll be less worried about the outcome when you win 2/3 trades consistently, but even winning 2/3 trades if you take positions for large %'s of your trading capital then you'll still feel like you "need" a certain outcome.  Additionally, risking too much per trade even with a profitable edge simply doesn't work, e.g. here's a simulation of 30% risk:
◘.png


...and here's 70% risk, even with a good start, you'll still zero out later:
○.png

If you're naturally aggressive, apply prudency.  If you're naturally fearful, take more chances.

Here's a YT playlist thats a fusion of jokes and excellent information to get you started:

And here's a good YT channel for shorter videos (<10min)

Been enjoying that first playlist. More so for entertainment than education hah.