As per title really. I'm putting a ton of effort into giving trading a good go and have been trading every day for long periods (recently finished studying so have plenty of time available). I've been trading the tennis during the morning with decent results as well as football during the evenings. I like the fact I can research the relevant stats beforehand and use my own knowledge of each sport to make decisions in play.
However, it's the afternoons racing that's really starting to get to me, mainly down to the fact my results are getting worse. This has to be the only thing I've ever tried where my performance has decreased as I've become more experienced. I'm trading every UK race during the afternoon just to get myself in as many situations as possible but for the life of me I can't see a pattern emerge. In my head I can see the entry points but as soon as I click it someone throws a big chunk into the market and forces it down. I'd say that happens in around 70% of my trades.
Clearly there's a ton of factors to keep in mind when looking to enter the market and I'm trying to stick to the basic ones i.e. Don't enter at the top of a trend, consider weight of money, check the price range of the other front runners etc. I guess I'm just finding the whole process completely random with no real structure or pattern. Seriously I'd find more of a trend if a child just scribbled a few lines on my screen and asked me to do technical analysis on it!
So, is there a point where it all just falls into place? I was under no illusion that learning to trade was going to be easy but I also expected to see some kind of improvement the more effort I put in. The fact that my results have gone backwards despite putting in a considerable amount of effort has thrown me somewhat.
Please tell me there's a moment it just clicks into place!
I would suggest concentrating on one sport at a time. Racing IMO is the hardest to crack but that's a personal opinion.
I trade full time after taking redundancy from my Human Resources job about 5.5 years ago. I used the money as a buffer until it started to come together. I was fortunate to have a very patient and understanding better half!
Try to master one thing or another, scalping or swing trading for racing, a specific market for football.
Patience and a strong emotional side are key. Have to not let it get you down on bad days as we all have them. When you can master these two and gain experience things will fall into place.
I have some football videos am happy to send to you which may help, some show scalping using Bet Angel. If you can make £££ from scalping you're well on your way as it adds a powerful weapon to the armoury.
All the best.
Feel free to pm me.
I trade full time after taking redundancy from my Human Resources job about 5.5 years ago. I used the money as a buffer until it started to come together. I was fortunate to have a very patient and understanding better half!
Try to master one thing or another, scalping or swing trading for racing, a specific market for football.
Patience and a strong emotional side are key. Have to not let it get you down on bad days as we all have them. When you can master these two and gain experience things will fall into place.
I have some football videos am happy to send to you which may help, some show scalping using Bet Angel. If you can make £££ from scalping you're well on your way as it adds a powerful weapon to the armoury.
All the best.
Feel free to pm me.
The biggest problem for new comers is over comlicating the situation. The more you learn the less profitable you become cos you are looking at to many factors. Markets are organic especially Horse Racing pre - event.
What do I mean by this well it really is a supply and demand market there are no goals or points that skew the odds and make them jump so your approach should be different to the horse markets than football or tennis.
Warning there are two kinds of participants in the pre-horse race markets and they are players & pieces, make sure you are the player.
Follow the patterns, keep it simple and make sure you are quick in your decisons whether that be a scratch trade, or taking a profit/loss and yes in my experience there is a lighbulb moment. However this only comes once you are able to separate the noise from the true markets patterns. Understanding the ebb & flow of the market is key.
What do I mean by this well it really is a supply and demand market there are no goals or points that skew the odds and make them jump so your approach should be different to the horse markets than football or tennis.
Warning there are two kinds of participants in the pre-horse race markets and they are players & pieces, make sure you are the player.
Follow the patterns, keep it simple and make sure you are quick in your decisons whether that be a scratch trade, or taking a profit/loss and yes in my experience there is a lighbulb moment. However this only comes once you are able to separate the noise from the true markets patterns. Understanding the ebb & flow of the market is key.
its good your doing alright on footy and tennis. consider not trading the horses for a few weeks, give yourself a break. it can be a bit of a iffy time trading the horses this time of the year with the wind down from the flat season and the build up of the jumps season, not an ideal time trading horses, the markets seem ( to me at least), to be a bit less predictable in general. leave it for 3 weeks or so, till the jumps bed in so to speak.
if you don’t wish to have a break (or even if you do), really cut your bank down, use very small stakes/liabilities, and try not to concentrate on winning, concentrate on breaking even and accepting losses ( if your doing ok they will be small losses, and you will not get too narked about losing trades. learning to accept losses is real important).
read james 1st thread on this forum, and other similar threads. they will probably help you realise it will take a long time to crack.
also learn about yourself ie, your temperament, how well you think your in control of your mind, and in practice how little you are in control of your mind. as is often said trading is a mind game first and foremost. taking ticks is quite straight forward, controlling you, your own mind is usually the hardest part to crack.
if you don’t wish to have a break (or even if you do), really cut your bank down, use very small stakes/liabilities, and try not to concentrate on winning, concentrate on breaking even and accepting losses ( if your doing ok they will be small losses, and you will not get too narked about losing trades. learning to accept losses is real important).
read james 1st thread on this forum, and other similar threads. they will probably help you realise it will take a long time to crack.
also learn about yourself ie, your temperament, how well you think your in control of your mind, and in practice how little you are in control of your mind. as is often said trading is a mind game first and foremost. taking ticks is quite straight forward, controlling you, your own mind is usually the hardest part to crack.
Thanks for the advice everyone. I think another issue I'm having is not really being able to study and understand race trading in general, I kind of just start trading from the first race of the day. I've watched as much of the free content I can find online and frequent some forums but I guess people want to hold onto their edge so there doesn't seem too much info out there.
I'm trying to swat up on horse racing in general and will view the upcoming races for the day to try and distinguish what type of market I may face. However, I'm still yet to find any meaningful correlation between the class of race and volatility even though I've been advised on what to look for. I've started using Camtasia as well to record a few trades just to see if I can pick out some glaring errors. This definitely helped when trying to improve my poker game allowing me to slow the whole process down.
Would it be fair in saying that the trends observed during the ten minutes prior to the off are considerably disconnected from the long term trend observed in the Betfair graph? For example I find a horse slowly drifting over time only for the price to completely fluctuate within those final ten minutes and become pretty random (to my eye at least). I understand several factors can influence the price on a horse shortly before the off so should I even consider the possible long term trend?
I'm trying to swat up on horse racing in general and will view the upcoming races for the day to try and distinguish what type of market I may face. However, I'm still yet to find any meaningful correlation between the class of race and volatility even though I've been advised on what to look for. I've started using Camtasia as well to record a few trades just to see if I can pick out some glaring errors. This definitely helped when trying to improve my poker game allowing me to slow the whole process down.
Would it be fair in saying that the trends observed during the ten minutes prior to the off are considerably disconnected from the long term trend observed in the Betfair graph? For example I find a horse slowly drifting over time only for the price to completely fluctuate within those final ten minutes and become pretty random (to my eye at least). I understand several factors can influence the price on a horse shortly before the off so should I even consider the possible long term trend?
betfecks graphs are highly compressed. watch peters video on ba tv, all will be clearly explained http://www.youtube.com/user/betangeltv# ... iImv8QkYwM
You don't need to know anything about horses or racing to succeed in this game. It's people, not horses, who you're competing against!Consty1 wrote: I'm trying to swat up on horse racing in general and will view the upcoming races for the day to try and distinguish what type of market I may face.
The aim of trading is merely to exploit market inefficiencies caused by things like fear and greed and people's tendancy do copy what everyone else is doing. For example, a horse might be drifting like crazy - not because there's anything wrong with the horse, but because everyone assumes, lemming-like, that everyone else knows something, and the trend self-perpetuates.
Jeff
So are there things I can actually study prior to trading the days races or is it just a matter of approaching each race ten minutes prior to the off and working with the market conditions in front of me?
Is there nothing I can do to improve other than actually trading the races?
Is there nothing I can do to improve other than actually trading the races?
You can study the markets, and look for patterns, and think about what's happening and why.Consty1 wrote:Is there nothing I can do to improve other than actually trading the races?
I'd recommend you run this spreadsheet (perhaps in practice mode): viewtopic.php?f=31&t=2085.
See if you can work out in what situations the spreadsheet makes a profit from trading at random, and when it doesn't. Peter Webb argues that all you need to cross the tiny line between unprofitable and profitable trading is to eliminate obvious errors. Perhaps this exercise will help to illuminate some of those errors.
Jeff
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Groovyelms
- Posts: 277
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 7:42 am
Eventually 
Something that I have found helps is to video your trading and review it later. I think there was a thread on here on video and software previously.
luck to all,
Groovy
Something that I have found helps is to video your trading and review it later. I think there was a thread on here on video and software previously.
luck to all,
Groovy
Am I right in thinking that the spreadsheet can only lay or back as entry points and not both on several horses? For example if I select the two favourites to trade on the spreadsheet won't back the first horse and lay the second, it can only do one or the other.Ferru123 wrote: I'd recommend you run this spreadsheet (perhaps in practice mode): viewtopic.php?f=31&t=2085.
Jeff
I can see that it's an option under the spreadsheet user settings to either back or lay but just wanted to be sure.
It all makes perfect sence
expressed in dollars and cents
pounds shillings and pence
oh cant you see it all makes perfect sence,,,,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTOeE_Zn05A
some times we have to smell the roses..
expressed in dollars and cents
pounds shillings and pence
oh cant you see it all makes perfect sence,,,,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTOeE_Zn05A
some times we have to smell the roses..
Last edited by convoysur on Mon Oct 10, 2011 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Hi Marc
I'm afraid your video has been blocked on copyright grounds...
Jeff
I'm afraid your video has been blocked on copyright grounds...
Jeff
convoysur wrote: http://www.youtube.com/user/flaxfields# ... 6MgiDtcXGA
have betfair shares in you tube ??? lol...
there ya go....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTOeE_Zn05A
marc
there ya go....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTOeE_Zn05A
marc
To kick things off, here are a few obvious errors I've thought of:
A. Taking rather than offering money.
B. Entering the market when there is little liquidity on either side of the book (my thinking is that the market could rapidly move several ticks against me before I have the chance to close my trade).
C. Not closing my trade when the market moves significantly against me and/or momentum appears to be flagging.
D. Going against the trend (except where there's evidence of an imminent reversal).
E. In trending markets, closing trades when the market hasn't run its course.
F. In ranging markets, closing trades for a loss when the market is still inside the range.
G. Entering highly unstable markets.
Do you guys agree that those are errors, and can you think of any others?
Jeff
A. Taking rather than offering money.
B. Entering the market when there is little liquidity on either side of the book (my thinking is that the market could rapidly move several ticks against me before I have the chance to close my trade).
C. Not closing my trade when the market moves significantly against me and/or momentum appears to be flagging.
D. Going against the trend (except where there's evidence of an imminent reversal).
E. In trending markets, closing trades when the market hasn't run its course.
F. In ranging markets, closing trades for a loss when the market is still inside the range.
G. Entering highly unstable markets.
Do you guys agree that those are errors, and can you think of any others?
Jeff
Ferru123 wrote:Perhaps this exercise will help to illuminate some of those errors.