Football Musings

[wearthefoxhat]

Man City edged 2nd half, and took their opportunity.

ManCvArseFT.png

[wearthefoxhat]

Just looked at the Australian game Central Coast v Western Sydney, both teams in the top 3 and it was a real ripper.

Of course no offical Xg stats, but that's not a problem...

CCMvWSW.png

[wearthefoxhat]

Half-Time score looks about right.

FACUPBvL.png

[wearthefoxhat]

Yep, could see that goal coming...Fair result.

FTBvLiv.png

[wearthefoxhat]

Good old fashioned Cup game. Unlucky Wrexham.

WrexvSutd.png

[stueytrader]

Hi Fox, interesting work you've posted here, been interesting reading.

Just wondered, do you have any specific thoughts about the kind of second leg dead(ish) rubbers like this one in the cup tonight (Man U Nottingham F) home side already 3-0 lead?

I'm currently reasoning a comfortable win for home here, but are there other angles I wonder?

[Michael5482]

Hi Fox, interesting work you've posted here, been interesting reading.

Just wondered, do you have any specific thoughts about the kind of second leg dead(ish) rubbers like this one in the cup tonight (Man U Nottingham F) home side already 3-0 lead?

I'm currently reasoning a comfortable win for home here, but are there other angles I wonder?

Man Utd have a quite a few games coming up Saturday/Wednesday for the next month including Barcelona so they could rest 1 or 2 players tonight. Look out for the team news to see there intensions.

[stueytrader]

Hi Fox, interesting work you've posted here, been interesting reading.

Just wondered, do you have any specific thoughts about the kind of second leg dead(ish) rubbers like this one in the cup tonight (Man U Nottingham F) home side already 3-0 lead?

I'm currently reasoning a comfortable win for home here, but are there other angles I wonder?

Man Utd have a quite a few games coming up Saturday/Wednesday for the next month including Barcelona so they could rest 1 or 2 players tonight. Look out for the team news to see there intensions.

Cheers Michael - that's a fair point. Though Forrest are also missing quite a few due to injury/illness, so that might balance out somewhat.

[wearthefoxhat]

Hi Fox, interesting work you've posted here, been interesting reading.

Just wondered, do you have any specific thoughts about the kind of second leg dead(ish) rubbers like this one in the cup tonight (Man U Nottingham F) home side already 3-0 lead?

I'm currently reasoning a comfortable win for home here, but are there other angles I wonder?

To me it's not really a betting proposition. Games like this with an easy 1st leg lead, big teams use it as a training exercise and practice defending for a clean sheet. If they score a couple of goals without picking up injuries along the way, then that's a bonus.

If Man Utd are 2-0 up at HT, then it'll likely be 4 or 5. If it's 0-0 at HT, it'll likely be 1-0 or 2-0.

[wearthefoxhat]

Good effort from Everton first half, should be ahead. A lot will depend on their energy levels second half and concentration levels.

EvevArse.png

[wearthefoxhat]

Result about right on balance. Could see that goal coming.

EvArsFT.png

[wearthefoxhat]

As the footy season kicks off for the next 9 months or so, thought I'd revisit an old thread.

Using Chat GPT (who doesn't nowadays) I'm reviewing Paul Steele's power ratings adjusted and combining it with my own Xg. (FoXg). The Paul Steels ratings adjusted are essentially an ELO rating so will reflect the teams form accordingly.

Specialisation is the key, so I'll focus mainly on Premier and Championship leagues.

[wearthefoxhat]

One initial thought is,

Should I start the new season with the same points for each team and adjust as each game is played? (Paul Steel power ratings)

or, use the club elo numbers at the start of the new season?

http://clubelo.com/ENG

(Suppose I could run both alongside each other as see how it looks)

[Kai]

Good stuff Mr Fox but isn't saying "Xg" instead of the standardized term "xG" a big faux pas for the analytically minded?

I'm amazed it has never bothered you one bit

[wearthefoxhat]

Good stuff Mr Fox but isn't saying "Xg" instead of the standardized term "xG" a big faux pas for the analytically minded?

I'm amazed it has never bothered you one bit

Fallen at the first hurdle....

FoxG would be better the FoXg that's fir sure.