Trading Football In Play
Hi Kai,
Thanks for your response. The reason I ask is there’s many have systems successful or not, that are based on all previous history and things like xg, but very few who seem to deal with what’s actually happening in the here and now..
I’ve been trading purely in play, wait until the game unfolds and then trade, but it seems like there’s few like me that I can get feedback from.
Thanks for your response. The reason I ask is there’s many have systems successful or not, that are based on all previous history and things like xg, but very few who seem to deal with what’s actually happening in the here and now..
I’ve been trading purely in play, wait until the game unfolds and then trade, but it seems like there’s few like me that I can get feedback from.
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iambic_pentameter
- Posts: 450
- Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm
Hi OP,
If someone is deploying a successful in play strategy (for any sport), it's unlikely they are going to give anyone all the details.
The first thing I would do, is build a picture of the market participants:
Who are they?
What are they betting on and why?
What advantages do they have over me and what advantages might I have over them?
Then I'd focus on understanding a single market i.e.
Why is the market at the price it is?
What needs to happen for the price to move? And can I exploit anything as a result of that price move?
What kind of volume is in the market?
Collecting as much data as you can or back testing to see if there are any edges.
You could then look at building a model - some people might think "That sounds like hard work" but it comes back to what I mentioned above about market participants.
Do you think the big syndicates, players and experienced players are betting without a model?
Then it all comes down to value.
Best of luck with it.
Iambic
Disclaimer: I don't trade football but picked up the above from listening to people over the years.
If someone is deploying a successful in play strategy (for any sport), it's unlikely they are going to give anyone all the details.
The first thing I would do, is build a picture of the market participants:
Who are they?
What are they betting on and why?
What advantages do they have over me and what advantages might I have over them?
Then I'd focus on understanding a single market i.e.
Why is the market at the price it is?
What needs to happen for the price to move? And can I exploit anything as a result of that price move?
What kind of volume is in the market?
Collecting as much data as you can or back testing to see if there are any edges.
You could then look at building a model - some people might think "That sounds like hard work" but it comes back to what I mentioned above about market participants.
Do you think the big syndicates, players and experienced players are betting without a model?
Then it all comes down to value.
Best of luck with it.
Iambic
Disclaimer: I don't trade football but picked up the above from listening to people over the years.
Iambic has raised some good questions for you, there is more to inplay than placing bets on what you think will happen and praying to RNGesus that it does.
If it helps I can also throw in a few words about the 3 things I feel are important for you here : feedback, value and variance.
Regarding value it's really up to you how you want to grind it out, you can go wide or deep, or rely on speed etc. If you don't like stats/data and don't want to basically carpet bomb all the matches with bets to land some good hits and grind out an edge that way that's fine too, if you prefer to read the match instead and compare your readings to the prices at hand. Although I would add that you don't always have to actively look for value yourself. For example, suddenly seeing big bets flying in may suggest an opportunity has just opened up etc, so I wouldn't completely ignore the ladder side of things.
Lastly, variance feels bad but is it really a bad thing for you? I needed a while to realize this myself, I've been trying to avoid it like the plague. Obviously scalping and stuff can help pay for speculative bets and smooth out the overall variance but I'd suggest to first ask yourself whether you really need to do that.
If it helps I can also throw in a few words about the 3 things I feel are important for you here : feedback, value and variance.
I honestly wouldn't worry about what others are doing and about getting their feedback etc. You still get the relevant "feedback" from everyone whose opinion matters to your bottom line via the market indirectly, about whether your approaches are showing profit or not at the end of the day. If you are roughly breaking even that suggests you need to hone your "game sense" some more, but also that profit is probably not far off.
Regarding value it's really up to you how you want to grind it out, you can go wide or deep, or rely on speed etc. If you don't like stats/data and don't want to basically carpet bomb all the matches with bets to land some good hits and grind out an edge that way that's fine too, if you prefer to read the match instead and compare your readings to the prices at hand. Although I would add that you don't always have to actively look for value yourself. For example, suddenly seeing big bets flying in may suggest an opportunity has just opened up etc, so I wouldn't completely ignore the ladder side of things.
Lastly, variance feels bad but is it really a bad thing for you? I needed a while to realize this myself, I've been trying to avoid it like the plague. Obviously scalping and stuff can help pay for speculative bets and smooth out the overall variance but I'd suggest to first ask yourself whether you really need to do that.
Btw I can see how it may appear like that at first glance, if you only read the titles of all the threads.
But actually, people often bemoan the lack of strategies and such.
Imagine if everyone happily kept posting various strategies for others to use, if anything that would only tell you that nobody on here is making any profit from them whatsoever!
Thanks for the feedback here folks, but none of the comments are of any relevance really.
I’m aware of strategies, data etc etc. For me in play trading purely, as in forget entering pre match, there’s too much value to be had by being patient, wait for something to happen then react. My question was to seek others who may be of a like mind, which I just never seem to see, it appears I’m in the minority.
Those who have their data to work from pre match fair enough, but for me in play regularly rips that up and missed opportunities for value are there if patient. Anyway, I’ll plod on in play
I’m aware of strategies, data etc etc. For me in play trading purely, as in forget entering pre match, there’s too much value to be had by being patient, wait for something to happen then react. My question was to seek others who may be of a like mind, which I just never seem to see, it appears I’m in the minority.
Those who have their data to work from pre match fair enough, but for me in play regularly rips that up and missed opportunities for value are there if patient. Anyway, I’ll plod on in play
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wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3551
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
IMO much of the value is from a straight back or lay if the odds represent a fair bet.
Trading in-play depends if you want a goal or not.
If you want a goal, then the stats or attack/momentum, most of the time, may indicate a likely goal. Backing the overs in that instance with a plan to take a red trade if the chance dissipates. If you get the timing right, then the resulting green will make up for all the small losses (reds)
If you don't want a goal, then back the unders knowing the direction of the trade, but the risk is, despite the stats, a goal might come out of nowhere and you're then caught in a poor trade. (picking up pennies in front of a steamroller)
The game selection is important too.