Laying the overs

[thepressure]

I saw a video on laying o2.5 at the start of the match and cashing out after 10 mins, pretty basic, but got me thinking.

Say you want to lay goals at the start of the match and make 10% of your risk back, so if a goal goes in on o2.5 and it costs you a tenner, youre looking to make £1.

Now why would you do this on the o1.5 or o2.5 markets, are you not loads better off on the o5.5 and o6.5, because all things being equal, you have to be in the market the same time to make your same % return I think from what i know and what ive seen, but if you choose to hang on in there, the price will rebound back in your favour quicker, as most games dont go over say 5.5.

Am i missing something or are the only issues a) you have to have more in account to lay for the same £ profit cos the odds are higher and b) liquidity could be an issue, especially on smaller games?


Would love to hear from people, have i completed missed something here?


Edit - Im also looking to get out asap, like 1-3mins if possible, I think you can make about 10% of your risk doing this.

[jamesedwards]

... but if you choose to hang on in there, the price will rebound back in your favour quicker, as most games dont go over say 5.5.

The price only rebounds quicker if there's no more goals. Sure, you'll lose less often, but when you do lose you will lose a lot more.

To win in the long run you need an edge when entering and/or exiting a market. Without an edge you will just get beaten by the spread and commission no matter how you play it.

[thepressure]

no forget that for a moment, im talking about risk vs pay off, as in, the decay is quicker at higher odds, so why would you ever say lay 2.5 for ten mins when laying 5.5 for 10 mins will give you more profit.

or to phrase it how i did at the start, say you lay o2.5 and have £10 liability, if a goal goes in, youll lose say £3, so to make 30p profit (10%) it takes 5 mins.
now say you lay o5.5 with £50 liability, but youll also only maybe lose £3 if a goal goes in, youll make that 30p quicker as the decay is quicker, does that make sense?

[Kai]

A lot of ideas will sound way better in your head

But you can always post the question directly to the market

[weemac]

the decay is quicker at higher odds, so why would you ever say lay 2.5 for ten mins when laying 5.5 for 10 mins will give you more profit.

Because after a goal the loss on U5.5 is far bigger. Fast decay = bigger potential loss.

[thepressure]

the decay is quicker at higher odds, so why would you ever say lay 2.5 for ten mins when laying 5.5 for 10 mins will give you more profit.

Because after a goal the loss on U5.5 is far bigger. Fast decay = bigger potential loss.

Thats wrong, it will bounce back quicker as 1 goal doesnt affect o5.5 as it would o2.5, but thats not my point. I guess its a liquidity issues is all im having between the various markets.

[thepressure]

A lot of ideas will sound way better in your head

But you can always post the question directly to the market

Im trying, im only encountering liquidity problems right now, which I presume is the main issue.