(BLOG) Laying the Lame: Betting against the odds favorites

[Fugazi]

I understand OP selects odds under 4, so the dogs must be extremely good value to profit without being more specific

OP if you at least post the odds you are matched at before the off then it can be determined what profit/loss was made over time

[Dogfather]

I understand OP selects odds under 4, so the dogs must be extremely good value to profit without being more specific

OP if you at least post the odds you are matched at before the off then it can be determined what profit/loss was made over time

Not exactly - I recommend making bets up to an odds of 3.5. To make sure such an odds was available at all, you can check, for example, the odds history on https://www.oddschecker.com/. Generally, I always try to pick dogs with the best timeform (five-star dogs), with a high numerical rating (not sure what to call it properly). Such dogs are recommended for betting by tipster sites, so AS A RULE, BUT NOT ALWAYS, from the moment bets open, there's a chance to bet at odds of 3.5 or less. Please take a look at the screenshot.

[Fugazi]

Without the odds you have layed them at, we cannot decipher your profit / loss. What is on odds checker is unlikely the price you were able to lay at on an exchange.

You have to be open to providing this information. You're wasting your time otherwise if you're wanting someone to start placing the bets on your behalf

[jimibt]

Without the odds you have layed them at, we cannot decipher your profit / loss. What is on odds checker is unlikely the price you were able to lay at on an exchange.

You have to be open to providing this information. You're wasting your time otherwise if you're wanting someone to start placing the bets on your behalf

i think that's a fair point. if these results are based on a combo of observed odds on oddschecker and on BF, then it's really down to the ACTUAL price that you could get placed at, rather than the selection fulfilling it's outcome. i've sadly had many an intellectual theory busted by the reality of bet placement.

not trying to burst bubbles, but unless you have been trailing on BF with small stakes (which in truth is all you can really place on the dogs), then this is a theoretical discussion. i'd also comment that 5-6 races a day is not going to be enough to share the riches with anyone.

[Dogfather]

Fugazi, jimibt

I can't place bets on Betfair myself because they don't accept players from my country. This is actually the main reason why I need a partner. Right now, I'm just monitoring the odds on Betfair and Oddschecker, and also collecting win/loss statistics. Yes, it's not the same as actually placing bets, but I don't have other options. Honestly, I don't think there should be a big difference compared to real betting (unless of course, you're trying to bet something like £1,000), if I'm wrong, please correct me.

[Fugazi]

Fugazi, jimibt

I can't place bets on Betfair myself because they don't accept players from my country. This is actually the main reason why I need a partner. Right now, I'm just monitoring the odds on Betfair and Oddschecker, and also collecting win/loss statistics. Yes, it's not the same as actually placing bets, but I don't have other options. Honestly, I don't think there should be a big difference compared to real betting (unless of course, you're trying to bet something like £1,000), if I'm wrong, please correct me.

Was meant to edit my post


Using odds checker as your lay prices is a big error. Most of us would be rich laying at their prices

As you can't use betfair I would recommend accessing their BSP and recording that as your pretend lay price and then see if you are profitable, remembering 2% comission

[Dogfather]

Fugazi, jimibt

I can't place bets on Betfair myself because they don't accept players from my country. This is actually the main reason why I need a partner. Right now, I'm just monitoring the odds on Betfair and Oddschecker, and also collecting win/loss statistics. Yes, it's not the same as actually placing bets, but I don't have other options. Honestly, I don't think there should be a big difference compared to real betting (unless of course, you're trying to bet something like £1,000), if I'm wrong, please correct me.

Was meant to edit my post


Using odds checker as your lay prices is a big error. Most of us would be rich laying at their prices

As you can't use betfair I would recommend accessing their BSP and recording that as your pretend lay price and then see if you are profitable, remembering 2% comission

In my case, I won't be able to use BSP as a source for lay odds. My strategy is based on the assumption that the market, at least in the initial stage, misjudges the favorite. Therefore, if I were to place a bet, I would look at the BACK odds (for example, if they are in the range of 2.5-3), and I would place an order at 3.3-3.5. It seems to me that there would be people who would accept such an offer, doesn't it look like a good deal?

[jimibt]

Fugazi, jimibt

I can't place bets on Betfair myself because they don't accept players from my country. This is actually the main reason why I need a partner. Right now, I'm just monitoring the odds on Betfair and Oddschecker, and also collecting win/loss statistics. Yes, it's not the same as actually placing bets, but I don't have other options. Honestly, I don't think there should be a big difference compared to real betting (unless of course, you're trying to bet something like £1,000), if I'm wrong, please correct me.

Was meant to edit my post


Using odds checker as your lay prices is a big error. Most of us would be rich laying at their prices

As you can't use betfair I would recommend accessing their BSP and recording that as your pretend lay price and then see if you are profitable, remembering 2% comission

In my case, I won't be able to use BSP as a source for lay odds. My strategy is based on the assumption that the market, at least in the initial stage, misjudges the favorite. Therefore, if I were to place a bet, I would look at the BACK odds (for example, if they are in the range of 2.5-3), and I would place an order at 3.3-3.5. It seems to me that there would be people who would accept such an offer, doesn't it look like a good deal?

what size of stake have you observed to be possible from the available liquidity at the perceived time of entry (especially as this is at the initial stage)??

[Dogfather]

I assume up to 200 pounds should be okay. It doesn't necessarily have to be the very initial stage. I would say up to 10 minutes before the start of the race.

[jimibt]

I assume up to 200 pounds should be okay. It doesn't necessarily have to be the very initial stage. I would say up to 10 minutes before the start of the race.

not sure how far in advance you'd place your bets. but here is the Newcastle market with 5 minutes to go:

Screenshot 2024-09-11 151947.png

all i'm saying is, the lack of liquidity is a big known, so just curious on the stake size, especially if early on the market.

[edit] - Hove from 10 minutes out:

Screenshot 2024-09-11 152815.png

[Euler]

Laying at OddsChecker odds doesn't work as the odds have big overrounds priced into them. As was mentioned above, we could all make immense amounts of money if we could do that. This is why the price you are laying at, is so important.

[Fugazi]

Dog,


I've worked out the mistake

You are assuming that blue column is the price someone will accept a lay at. It is not. The pink column Jim has posted is the price you will get a lay accepted at

[jimibt]

Dog,

I've worked out the mistake

You are assuming that blue column is the price someone will accept a lay at. It is not. The pink column Jim has posted is the price you will get a lay accepted at

yeah, the blue column contains the amount available at the reverse price, but doesn't represent the odds you'll be matched at.

[Dogfather]

I understand what these columns mean But these odds are totally unrealistic - no one would place a BACK bet at odds of 2 or a LAY bet at odds of 20. My idea is to offer the market a somewhat reasonable price. Isn't that how it works?

[Fugazi]

I understand what these columns mean But these odds are totally unrealistic - no one would place a BACK bet at odds of 2 or a LAY bet at odds of 20. My idea is to offer the market a somewhat reasonable price. Isn't that how it works?

You are exactly correct

But what happens is someone with a powerful model picks you off. Prices in your favour don't get matched, but the second its in their profitable range it gets snapped up. You try 3.0, not matched all day. You try 3.2 , boom, it gets snatched up

This is exactly how Archery was so profitable - wait until your bets are in his range for picking off in his favour