(BLOG) Laying the Lame: Betting against the odds favorites

[sionascaig]

I understand what these columns mean But these odds are totally unrealistic - no one would place a BACK bet at odds of 2 or a LAY bet at odds of 20. My idea is to offer the market a somewhat reasonable price. Isn't that how it works?

You are exactly correct

But what happens is someone with a powerful model picks you off. Prices in your favour don't get matched, but the second its in their profitable range it gets snapped up. You try 3.0, not matched all day. You try 3.2 , boom, it gets snatched up

This is exactly how Archery was so profitable - wait until your bets are in his range for picking off in his favour

Have some fun on some lower liquidity markets. You can spoof the bots up and down the ladder to see what their value range is... If anything it will give you an idea where others expect the value range to be..

[Fugazi]

I understand what these columns mean But these odds are totally unrealistic - no one would place a BACK bet at odds of 2 or a LAY bet at odds of 20. My idea is to offer the market a somewhat reasonable price. Isn't that how it works?

You are exactly correct

But what happens is someone with a powerful model picks you off. Prices in your favour don't get matched, but the second its in their profitable range it gets snapped up. You try 3.0, not matched all day. You try 3.2 , boom, it gets snatched up

This is exactly how Archery was so profitable - wait until your bets are in his range for picking off in his favour

Have some fun on some lower liquidity markets. You can spoof the bots up and down the ladder to see what their value range is... If anything it will give you an idea where others expect the value range to be..

I made a bot that can't be spoofed hah. Will post it tomorrow once I'm certain it's not profitable in its current form

Edit: Sod it, posted it:

viewtopic.php?t=29708

[jimibt]

I understand what these columns mean But these odds are totally unrealistic - no one would place a BACK bet at odds of 2 or a LAY bet at odds of 20. My idea is to offer the market a somewhat reasonable price. Isn't that how it works?

You are exactly correct

But what happens is someone with a powerful model picks you off. Prices in your favour don't get matched, but the second its in their profitable range it gets snapped up. You try 3.0, not matched all day. You try 3.2 , boom, it gets snatched up

This is exactly how Archery was so profitable - wait until your bets are in his range for picking off in his favour

Have some fun on some lower liquidity markets. You can spoof the bots up and down the ladder to see what their value range is... If anything it will give you an idea where others expect the value range to be..

i think the long and short here is that until you synthesize with the market you literally have no idea if the odds on paper are actually viable in those fleeting minutes where the volume arrives. that said, there are a few on here, past and present, that are making decent gains on these markets. however, my understanding is that they are playing the high volume, low returns game. it sounds like you are going counter to that, so could be interesting IF you can get > £50 onto your target markets...

[Dogfather]

Guys, I think there's only one way to find out... Tomorrow, I'll post another 5 predictions. Could someone place a lay bet on these picks at odds of 3.5? The amount doesn't matter, even if it's just £1. Then, in the evening, report back on the forum how many of those bets were accepted. I would be very grateful.

[sionascaig]

Guys, I think there's only one way to find out... Tomorrow, I'll post another 5 predictions. Could someone place a lay bet on these picks at odds of 3.5? The amount doesn't matter, even if it's just £1. Then, in the evening, report back on the forum how many of those bets were accepted. I would be very grateful.

Just look at the BF charts, they will tell you how much was traded at each price?

[Dogfather]

Yesterday's results:

4 wins
1 loss

Today is Kinsley day!

Kinsley

14:36 (R1) Grade: (D3) Distance: 268m Splashdash Ernie
14:54 (R2) Grade: (A5) Distance: 462m Kitmans Hero
15:13 (R3) Grade: (A7) Distance: 462m Ineedabreak
16:28 (R7) Grade: (D4) Distance: 268m Ballymac Riley
18:02 (R12) Grade: (A6) Distance: 462m Curryhills Tiana

[Dogfather]

sionascaig Betfair has blocked my account, I will try to create a new one. In any case, it would be really awesome if someone tried to place a lay bet at odds of 3.5 and then shared whether it worked out. The future of betting science depends on you!

[Archery1969]

I understand what these columns mean But these odds are totally unrealistic - no one would place a BACK bet at odds of 2 or a LAY bet at odds of 20. My idea is to offer the market a somewhat reasonable price. Isn't that how it works?

You are exactly correct

But what happens is someone with a powerful model picks you off. Prices in your favour don't get matched, but the second its in their profitable range it gets snapped up. You try 3.0, not matched all day. You try 3.2 , boom, it gets snatched up

This is exactly how Archery was so profitable - wait until your bets are in his range for picking off in his favour

As I mentioned there were a couple of ingredients I left out of my post a few pages back.

Regarding the odds range for each dog, was one of them. I'm not going to spell it out word for word but..

A few things:

- Each dogs odds change based on matched runner volume as a percentage of the markets matched volume. Less so > 1 hour before, more so as you approach event start time. However, some OR races on Friday or Saturday evenings do get a fair amount matched 1 hour before.

- From the above its really not that difficult to workout upper/lower limits when offering odds to the market for each runner. Obviously you need to cancel and resubmit when volumes pick up.

- Sometimes you do get a bookmaker or mad person who decides to try and put ££££ on a dog in the last 60 seconds which with thin markets can cause odds to jump all over the place. But 9 times out of 10 I was always out well before this type of issue occured. When I say out I mean I always had my back/lay bets offered matched, then the only thing todo at 30 seconds was spread the profit across the market.

- Not part of my model but be very careful if you are straight laying dogs with no or little form, coming from Ireland and put in T3 or T4 at certain race tracks. In the early days me and a few others on this forum followed them and if we had layed them then we would have lost a small fortune over 6 months.

[sionascaig]

Yesterday's results:

4 wins
1 loss

Today is Kinsley day!

Kinsley

14:36 (R1) Grade: (D3) Distance: 268m Splashdash Ernie
14:54 (R2) Grade: (A5) Distance: 462m Kitmans Hero
15:13 (R3) Grade: (A7) Distance: 462m Ineedabreak
16:28 (R7) Grade: (D4) Distance: 268m Ballymac Riley
18:02 (R12) Grade: (A6) Distance: 462m Curryhills Tiana

Screenshot 2024-09-12 145747.png

Screenshot 2024-09-12 143650.png

The 1st two races traded vol around 3.5... Wont be doing rest as busy..

edit - and the last one...

[Fugazi]

I understand what these columns mean But these odds are totally unrealistic - no one would place a BACK bet at odds of 2 or a LAY bet at odds of 20. My idea is to offer the market a somewhat reasonable price. Isn't that how it works?

You are exactly correct

But what happens is someone with a powerful model picks you off. Prices in your favour don't get matched, but the second its in their profitable range it gets snapped up. You try 3.0, not matched all day. You try 3.2 , boom, it gets snatched up

This is exactly how Archery was so profitable - wait until your bets are in his range for picking off in his favour

As I mentioned there were a couple of ingredients I left out of my post a few pages back.

Regarding the odds range for each dog, was one of them. I'm not going to spell it out word for word but..

A few things:

- Each dogs odds change based on matched runner volume as a percentage of the markets matched volume. Less so > 1 hour before, more so as you approach event start time. However, some OR races on Friday or Saturday evenings do get a fair amount matched 1 hour before.

- From the above its really not that difficult to workout upper/lower limits when offering odds to the market for each runner. Obviously you need to cancel and resubmit when volumes pick up.

- Sometimes you do get a bookmaker or mad person who decides to try and put ££££ on a dog in the last 60 seconds which with thin markets can cause odds to jump all over the place. But 9 times out of 10 I was always out well before this type of issue occured. When I say out I mean I always had my back/lay bets offered matched, then the only thing todo at 30 seconds was spread the profit across the market.

- Not part of my model but be very careful if you are straight laying dogs with no or little form, coming from Ireland and put in T3 or T4 at certain race tracks. In the early days me and a few others on this forum followed them and if we had layed them then we would have lost a small fortune over 6 months.

Noted

[ForFolksSake]

sionascaig The future of betting science depends on you!

What's that mean ? - your AVG(Liability/Profit) should be <= 3.3

[Dogfather]

sionascaig a huge thank you for your participation! It's now proven that bets at odds of 3.5 are getting matched, which is especially great since it's been tested at Kinsley, where favorites typically have higher odds than at other venues (because the win percentage of the favorite is lower).

ForFolksSake

What's that mean ? - your AVG(Liability/Profit) should be <= 3.3

How did you calculate that? I calculated for a win rate of 75% (although I think I might predict a couple of percentage points higher). So, for a 75% win rate, you can bet up to an odds of 4. But for safety, I recommend up to 3.5.

[Dogfather]

Yesterday's results:

4 wins
1 loss

Today I picked out some super cool bets. What's cool about them (besides a win rate around 80%?)? I assume that one could bet on these dogs with odds of 3 to 3.3. But even taking the standard odds of 3.5 should still be very profitable:

Kinsley

14:48 (R2) Grade: (A5) Distance: 462m A Bad Winter
15:44 (R5) Grade: (A6) Distance: 462m Vancouver Doug
16:03 (R6) Grade: (D5) Distance: 268m Apple Jam
16:22 (R7) Grade: (A7) Distance: 462m Say Grace

Harlow

11:21 (R4) Grade: (D4) Distance: 238m Lagile Canvas

P.S.: I'm thinking about testing my strategy on horse racing to see if I can maintain a win rate of around 80%. However, I don't know much about betting on horse races. Can you tell me if the strategies for horse racing are similar to those for greyhound racing, or is it a completely different game?

[Anbell]

Yesterday's results:

4 wins
1 loss

Today I picked out some super cool bets. What's cool about them (besides a win rate around 80%?)? I assume that one could bet on these dogs with odds of 3 to 3.3. But even taking the standard odds of 3.5 should still be very profitable:

Kinsley

14:48 (R2) Grade: (A5) Distance: 462m A Bad Winter
15:44 (R5) Grade: (A6) Distance: 462m Vancouver Doug
16:03 (R6) Grade: (D5) Distance: 268m Apple Jam
16:22 (R7) Grade: (A7) Distance: 462m Say Grace

Harlow

11:21 (R4) Grade: (D4) Distance: 238m Lagile Canvas

P.S.: I'm thinking about testing my strategy on horse racing to see if I can maintain a win rate of around 80%. However, I don't know much about betting on horse races. Can you tell me if the strategies for horse racing are similar to those for greyhound racing, or is it a completely different game?

You can get the relevant traded range every day here to test for profitability
https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices

[sionascaig]

P.S.: I'm thinking about testing my strategy on horse racing to see if I can maintain a win rate of around 80%. However, I don't know much about betting on horse races. Can you tell me if the strategies for horse racing are similar to those for greyhound racing, or is it a completely different game?

What you are attempting to do is called value betting. And yes that can be used on horses either backing of laying..

As others have pointed out the bit you seem to be missing is a value range for your selections. A "if less than 3.5 or whatever" is too generic, e.g. laying at 3.5 when the selection hits a min of 2 is a lot of potential value thrown away.

In the round the market gets the price right so even if you identify a weak fav then still need to know at what price that represents a value lay in that market.