Identifying the false fav at any stage of the process, either pre-race/in-play can be a very profitable strategy.sionascaig wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2024 10:15 amIdentifying a possible false fav early still may still be worthwhile.. Either the market picks up on it & you don't get a match or it doesn't & game on...
Either way, BA can post your selections (at value price) and if you get matched all good..
of course, in the dogs, it all has to end before the off, so that advantage is slightly eroded..ForFolksSake wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2024 2:18 pmIdentifying the false fav at any stage of the process, either pre-race/in-play can be a very profitable strategy.sionascaig wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2024 10:15 amIdentifying a possible false fav early still may still be worthwhile.. Either the market picks up on it & you don't get a match or it doesn't & game on...
Either way, BA can post your selections (at value price) and if you get matched all good..
of course, but I'm talking about both laying/backing the false-fav/fav for the duration of the process which could be all pre-race from when the market opens and all of in-play from when the race starts.jimibt wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2024 2:36 pmof course, in the dogs, it all has to end before the off, so that advantage is slightly eroded..ForFolksSake wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2024 2:18 pmIdentifying the false fav at any stage of the process, either pre-race/in-play can be a very profitable strategy.sionascaig wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2024 10:15 amIdentifying a possible false fav early still may still be worthwhile.. Either the market picks up on it & you don't get a match or it doesn't & game on...
Either way, BA can post your selections (at value price) and if you get matched all good..
I really want to return to the forum, despite the fact that I am new here, I was received very well. I am very pleased that even such masters as Archery have written in my topic. But I also understand that everyone needs proof of the profitability of my strategy, and the main proof is BSP. Now I'm focused on horse racing (it seems that people there don't understand anything about odds at all, thinking exclusively as traders, and not about real chances) Now I'm just collecting statistics, if you're interested in the first results here (green is a win, red is a loss) https://docs.google.com/document/d/16s- ... sp=sharing When I collect more statistics, I will come back to you friends.GaryCook wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 11:17 amMost of us that have been here awhile have spreadsheets with back testing that works really well on paper. However there is a lot to considering with real trading. Such as overfitting and the psychological stress one can go through while actually executing the trades.
Yesterday I had a 36-1 win by accident as I had a trade on but didn't get out before the dogs started running. Then I had an 8-1 that came in that I meant to back but that was another system I had running at the same time.
Then another 8-1 but I lost my confidence for some ransom reason and didn't back it and that one came in too but I wasn't on it like I should have been.
IE, there is a lot to it that a spreadsheet can't model well.
Don't give up however. You will probably stumble on something when you're least expecting.
You are way way off the mark there.....
+1sionascaig wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2024 9:58 amYou are way way off the mark there.....
You are maybe confusing traders that are more interested in volatility (closed positions), those looking for value (mainly open position). All types are on this forum and many use both approaches.
Most of the comments you have received have emphasised the importance of "price" (which in turn is an implied probability) as you were talking about a value system.
The main issue with the approach you described (lay fav if price < x) is the fact that it actually ignores "real chances" in specific races... i.e. you will get excellent fill rates when you have a -ve EV...
Anyhow, looking forward to your progress reports and hoping the penny will drop soon )
It has already dropped that's why he's moved away from a super profitable greyhound strategy to horses.sionascaig wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2024 9:58 amYou are way way off the mark there.....
You are maybe confusing traders that are more interested in volatility (closed positions), those looking for value (mainly open position). All types are on this forum and many use both approaches.
Most of the comments you have received have emphasised the importance of "price" (which in turn is an implied probability) as you were talking about a value system.
The main issue with the approach you described (lay fav if price < x) is the fact that it actually ignores "real chances" in specific races... i.e. you will get excellent fill rates when you have a -ve EV...
Anyhow, looking forward to your progress reports and hoping the penny will drop soon )
Fugazi, what can I say, re-read, for example, my previous post. If I believe there's value in the bet (based on statistical data, not just my opinion), I'll place the bet. That's what I call value betting, and I believe there's a positive expected value in such an approach. You think I'm talking nonsense, well, okay, time will tell who was right.Fugazi wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2024 1:19 pmThis forum has some of the most experienced greyhound traders out there. Do you really think they don't understand what you are saying? Do you not think it is more likely that it is you that is wrong? Your cognitive dissonance is letting you believe you are smarter than 99.99% of the market, from a strategy that was one of the first ideas that came into your mind.
They understand that you are trying to do something that is not "trading". But you are not listening to them. They are trying to stop you wasting time on something that doesn't work, and progress your journey to start learning new approaches.
I always look to emulate people that are successful. And this thread is full of them.
