Any open 'problem gamblers' participating in today's markets?

[ruthlessimon]

What could the price and sp/win data tell us about what they were trying to do? Genuinely interested

It tells us how good they are & how we need to react. Very general rule of thumb: Consistently unfilled or dragged, shrewd - front run it. Consistently filled or pulled, dumb - fill it (maybe).

It will require a huge amount of data over a long period to test. Personally I'd expect such brazen activity to be rare & efficient over time. Again though, let the data lead & have an open mind.

Also timing has a huge impact. A "big" stake matched early is very different to a big stake matched late. For whatever reason early market layers (who get matched) tend to be dumb

[Archery1969]

What could the price and sp/win data tell us about what they were trying to do? Genuinely interested

It tells us how good they are & how we need to react. Very general rule of thumb: Consistently unfilled or dragged, shrewd - front run it. Consistently filled or pulled, dumb - fill it (maybe).

It will require a huge amount of data over a long period to test. Personally I'd expect such brazen activity to be rare & efficient over time. Again though, let the data lead & have an open mind.

Also timing has a huge impact. A "big" stake matched early is very different to a big stake matched late. For whatever reason early market layers (who get matched) tend to be dumb

+ 1

[Fugazi]

What could the price and sp/win data tell us about what they were trying to do? Genuinely interested

It tells us how good they are & how we need to react. Very general rule of thumb: Consistently unfilled or dragged, shrewd - front run it. Consistently filled or pulled, dumb - fill it (maybe).

It will require a huge amount of data over a long period to test. Personally I'd expect such brazen activity to be rare & efficient over time. Again though, let the data lead & have an open mind.

Also timing has a huge impact. A "big" stake matched early is very different to a big stake matched late. For whatever reason early market layers (who get matched) tend to be dumb

+ 1

+2.

I've been the idiot who set an automation wrong and offered 10-1 on a 2-1 dog early doors. Made that mistake more than once lol Thankfully I never put too much in the account when messing with automations

[Kai]

My mindset with that is I find what I think is the smallest profitable margin and go to hit it hard with stakes that aren't suitable. A point in question were two football matches this evening, Gillingham/Grimsby & Northampton/Bolton. Both I forecast to have <=1 goal in first half. My approach was to back after a goal had been scored in first half and then reduce 20% of liability for each SOT and to double up on my stake after a goal. Hedging was to take place at 70 minutes. This was back-tested on a handful of games (About 2000).

Fear set in for me immediately when Bolton scored their second yet my rules were to re-enter the market, I overstaked on it, that set in turn fear with the other market. Panic set in when my Bolton one lost that then influenced my mind on Gillingham.

The liquidity on the markets was poor, my execution was poor, but more importantly my mindset was f**ked.

Yeah, the variance on footy especially can be brutal.

Although your strategy doesn't matter, if you can gauge the price correctly.

Same when speculating on any preoff market, the strategy won't really matter as long as you can read some parts of the order flow, key parts ideally, and only trade around those. Failure and indiscipline to do that obviously invites more unnecessary variance. Since nobody can read the whole market, on a consistent basis, which is great.

But yeah, what I wanted to say, aimed at any "problem gamblers" lurking and such, is that a trader can have all the IP data and tools but when variance hits anyone can have a temporary dip in confidence (same as football players after a string of losses) and/or start chasing losses a bit, so I'd say mental fortitude is an absolute must for any approach that has a lot of variance. So one has to know and re-evaluate themselves, same as they would an open position after key moments in the match or when enough time has passed.

Sometimes the best trading decision you can make is to simply call it a day, if you feel your mindset has been compromised.