Would Betfair hire me? Generated 2M turnover, 24k commission

[DefInvestor]

I’ve made some winnings this year during my "sabbatical" (which has now lasted for two years). Everything was fine, but unfortunately, I need to return to Germany for family reasons. In Germany, bookmakers are taxed 5% on turnover, and therefore, Betfair is very strict about not offering the Exchange to users with German residency.

My idea is to approach Betfair for a kind of "data scientist" position, where I would essentially do the same thing (betting) but for a fixed salary (not profiting directly from winnings, to avoid being classified as "betting" by German authorities), working remotely und unsupervised from Germany. This could involve using "virtual" Betfair money — virtual for me but real for Betfair.

I understand my salary would be significantly lower than my current winnings due to taxes, both those paid by Betfair on its profits and the taxes I’d owe in Germany. Still, this option seems better to me than a typical 9-to-5 office (or even home-office) job. I’m a software developer with strong recommendations, which makes the "data scientist" role a good fit and something justifiable in Betfair internally.

Now, I wonder how "valuable" I am to Betfair. I estimate I could increase my turnover to 3-4 million per year, with commissions of around 150-200k (normally 5%, though I’ve paid around 2.5%; on the other end, it varies by country and could be 6-7% afaik). But can I consider the 150k commission as "generated" solely by me? Since there is someone on the other end, it might at least be divided by 2. Moreover, part of my turnover might have happened without my participation. On the other hand, I mostly bet on pre-match tennis, also challengers, ITFs and doubles, which aren’t fully liquid markets, so I see myself as a sort of market-maker, attracting other bettors to Betfair's pre-match tennis markets. Viewed in an extremely positive light, no of this turnover would happen without me, and I could consider the entire 150K commission as "mine"'. I think the real factor is somewhere between 0.5 and 0.8.

Does anyone know if Betfair hires traders under such models? And how would they calculate salary based on turnover? It would also be useful to understand how much tax Betfair pays on its commission revenues.
Thanks in advance!

[sionascaig]

If you replaced the word "Betfair" with "Syndicate" and "Salary" with "Share of Profit" may generate some interest if you have P&L records going back a couple of years.

[Anbell]

Betfair doesnt hire traders, but your skills might be useful to others.

[DefInvestor]

Betfair doesnt hire traders

If the figures make sense (profit-wise), it could happen for the first time.

but your skills might be useful to others.

To whom, for example?

[jamesedwards]

If you have links to the UK, have you thought about conjuring up a UK address and using a VPS?

[DefInvestor]

If you replaced the word "Betfair" with "Syndicate" and "Salary" with "Share of Profit" may generate some interest if you have P&L records going back a couple of years.

Syndicate – that sounds a bit shady. I was thinking more along the lines of something that appears like a regular job to the outside world. This way, the bank would give me a mortgage, and it could also be a solid addition to my IT resume.

[weemac]

Much depends on what negative value BF place on the unknown amount of lost commission from now-defunct users whom your trading chases away in perpetuity.

[DefInvestor]

If you have links to the UK, have you thought about conjuring up a UK address and using a VPS?

I think a UK address would definitely help to get/keep a Betfair account. However, if I establish a residence in Germany, the authorities there might consider all my betting turnover taxable and could claim 5% of my turnover from Betfair. If they don't, it could be an interesting option, but still complicated, double residency is always complicated from tax point of view.
My idea is to turn my expertise into a "dream IT job" - one without boring meetings, on-call rotations on weekends, and with flexible working hours. Since I do algo-betting, there is a significant IT component in my activities. (It typically takes me 4-6 hours per day if I’m looking for improvements, or much less if I just let it run and monitor it from time to time.). An official job shouldn't be underestimated; it's an official source of income not only for tax authorities and banks, but also for health insurance (which is mandatory in Germany and depends on earnings). It also opens the door to getting a mortgage.

[DefInvestor]

Much depends on what negative value BF place on the unknown amount of lost commission from now-defunct users whom your trading chases away in perpetuity.

It's an interesting point. Actually, I thought it could never be bad for Betfair when liquidity is added to markets. Sometimes I notice that my unmatched bet results in the best odd Betfair offers across all bookmakers... and nobody takes it for hours.

[jamesedwards]

Much depends on what negative value BF place on the unknown amount of lost commission from now-defunct users whom your trading chases away in perpetuity.

It's an interesting point. Actually, I thought it could never be bad for Betfair when liquidity is added to markets. Sometimes I notice that my unmatched bet results in the best odd Betfair offers across all bookmakers... and nobody takes it for hours.

Betfair don't like long term winners. This is because Betfair make more commission the longer they can keep the same money moving around, and winners take money out. This is why Premium Charge was introduced, to make up for commission lost from winners stripping money from the ecosystem.

[BFDon]

BF aren't going to employ you. I would have thought your options are
A) Package your system and sell it on an ongoing basis to someone to action your bets (even if you were running it behind the scenes)
B) Find a company with a BF Business account to employ you in a software role with you running the system

[CloseBets]

Don't want to rain on your parade but I'd be very surprised if Betfair would even consider you on those figures. A turnover of £4M is quite small in the overall scheme of things and £24K comms won't excite them. As for the fact you no longer being there means lost money for them , it never really works that way. People always step in the fill the gaps or punters move to different markets. Many of us bot the markets and the amounts of bets we have matched are in those figures each month.

If Betfair had considered you to be an essential market maker they'd probably have approached you by now. They're well aware of people's value to the markets and approached many during lockdown to encourage people to increase dwindling liquidity. I'd think your best bet would be, like others have said, to tout your expertise elsewhere especially as Betfair are quite mercenary and will happily drop you when they feel you're no longer useful.

[DefInvestor]

A turnover of £4M is quite small in the overall scheme of things and £24K comms won't excite them.

What I mean is that if I scale the turnover to £4M, the commission would scale to £48K. However, that’s based on my 2.5% commission rate. The normal commission paid on the other side with 5% would be around £70K-80K (not exactly £96K because, of course, they would win less than me). I believe a portion of my current turnover wouldn't have happened without my involvement. It’s hard to quantify exactly, but in the best-case scenario, I acted as a market maker, attracting other punters from different platforms by offering the best odds on Betfair. And even if that’s not entirely the case, and my turnover would have mostly occurred without me, then there are still my winnings, which would ultimately belong to BF.

Many of us bot the markets and the amounts of bets we have matched are in those figures each month.

Well, many are trading on Betfair, while I am betting. Which means I generate more commission per turnover and pay virtually no PC. Once it must have happened, maybe I have had one very good week. In my Premium Charges I see:

Gross profit & loss 90K
Commission 23K
Other charges 0
Premium Charges ~1K
Total charges 24K

If Betfair had considered you to be an essential market maker they'd probably have approached you by now

Maybe I shouldn't overestimate it, but I was once invited to lunch by my VIP Key Account manager when I happened to be in London. And that was just in the 3rd month of my BF career ) It was quite motivational, which might be why I even have the idea of working for Betfair.
Of course, I could be too insignificant for Betfair to establish new processes around my role. If that’s the case, I’ll simply retire from betting. It looks like a lose-lose situation, but fine. The entire betting landscape seems to be a phased-out model anyway. If I think back to how bad Pinnacle’s tennis odds were ten years ago and how easy it was to win back then... the trend is clear. The time will come soon when all these platforms are filled with AI-powered bots, leaving no +EV in the odds...

[DefInvestor]

Betfair don't like long term winners. This is because Betfair make more commission the longer they can keep the same money moving around, and winners take money out..

I'm not sure if this description is completely accurate. Normally, people are addicted to betting. If they lose, they just deposit new money, which is good for BF.

This is why Premium Charge was introduced, to make up for commission lost from winners stripping money from the ecosystem.

Well, then the "winners problem" is solved anyway.

[Fugazi]

Betfair don't like long term winners. This is because Betfair make more commission the longer they can keep the same money moving around, and winners take money out..

I'm not sure if this description is completely accurate. Normally, people are addicted to betting. If they lose, they just deposit new money, which is good for BF.

This is why Premium Charge was introduced, to make up for commission lost from winners stripping money from the ecosystem.

Well, then the "winners problem" is solved anyway.

The problem is when losers lose too fast. They exit the eco system and liquidity starts to die.

By having only losers on the platform, it takes longer for comission to eat them .