Hi,
How is the breakeven price calculated after a partial close? For example, if I place a back bet £50 @ 1.98 then a lay bet £25 @ 1.89, the b/e moves from 1.98 to 2.06. Similarly, if I place a lay bet £50 @ 1.92 then a back bet £25 @ 1.98, b/e moves from 1.92 to 1.86.
I'm trying to understand how this is calculated so I can play around with different values.
Thanks
Breakeven calculation
I think you are definitely wrong with your calculations,mlc! In first case(back and then lay) BREAK EVEN ODDS should be calculated as -mlc wrote: ↑Sat Oct 26, 2024 4:09 pmHi,
How is the breakeven price calculated after a partial close? For example, if I place a back bet £50 @ 1.98 then a lay bet £25 @ 1.89, the b/e moves from 1.98 to 2.06. Similarly, if I place a lay bet £50 @ 1.92 then a back bet £25 @ 1.98, b/e moves from 1.92 to 1.86.
I'm trying to understand how this is calculated so I can play around with different values.
Thanks
(BACK STAKE*BACK ODDS - LAY STAKE*LAY ODDS)/(BACK STAKE*(BACK ODDS-1) - LAY STAKE*(LAY ODDS - 1)) and if you calculate BREAK EVEN ODDS in your case it's = (50*1.98 - 25*1.89)/(50*0.98 - 25*0.89) ~ 1.934579.... and not 2.06
In 2nd case (lay then back) BREAK EVEN ODDS = (LAY STAKE*LAY ODDS - BACK STAKE*BACK ODDS)/(LAY STAKE - BACK STAKE) and it's = (50*1.92 - 25*1.98)/(50 - 25) = 1.86
P.S. All caclculations are done without commission.
P.P.S. Only one explanation for Back then Lay Odds. These odds that I've calculated are odds by which have to multiply profit to break even ,but odds on that selection which you have Backed and Layed could be then = 1/(1 - 1/1.93457...) = 2.07 as in your calculations.
Last edited by jtrader on Sun Oct 27, 2024 12:03 am, edited 2 times in total.
So, if I place a lay bet of £60 at odds of 1.95 and then a back bet of £30 at odds of 2.05, how does the breakeven price adjust?jtrader wrote: ↑Sat Oct 26, 2024 6:09 pm
I think you are definitely wrong with your calculations,mlc! In first case(back and then lay) BREAK EVEN ODDS should be calculated as -
(BACK STAKE*BACK ODDS - LAY STAKE*LAY ODDS)/(BACK STAKE*(BACK ODDS-1) - LAY STAKE*(LAY ODDS - 1)) and if you calculate BREAK EVEN ODDS in your case it's = (50*1.98 - 25*1.89)/(50*0.98 - 25*0.89) ~ 1.934579....google baseball and not 2.06
In 2nd case (lay then back) BREAK EVEN ODDS = (LAY STAKE*LAY ODDS - BACK STAKE*BACK ODDS)/(LAY STAKE - BACK STAKE) and it's = (50*1.92 - 25*1.98)/(50 - 25) = 1.86
P.S. All caclculations are done without commission.
P.P.S. Only one explanation for Back then Lay Odds. These odds that I've calculated are odds by which have to multiply profit to break even ,but odds on that selection which you have Backed and Layed could be then = 1/(1 - 1/1.93457...) = 2.07 as in your calculations.
I would appreciate you answer!