US Presidential Election 2024

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Euler
Posts: 26315
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

Emmson wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2024 5:48 am
If large numbers of people are too ashamed/embarrassed to tell pollsters they are voting Trump I suppose that could make a nonsense of the polls.
"The trouble with market research is that people don't think what they feel, they don't say what they think, and they don't do what they say."
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jamesedwards
Posts: 4012
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

jamesedwards wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2024 5:59 pm
Kamala 6/4
13/8
greenmark
Posts: 6266
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

Much as I dislike Trump it'd be a brave person to bet against him now.
1.62 v 2.6
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jamesedwards
Posts: 4012
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

greenmark wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2024 3:59 pm
Much as I dislike Trump it'd be a brave person to bet against him now.
1.62 v 2.6
Archery1969 must be filling his boots! :mrgreen:
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jimibt
Posts: 4195
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm

jamesedwards wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:00 pm
greenmark wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2024 3:59 pm
Much as I dislike Trump it'd be a brave person to bet against him now.
1.62 v 2.6
Archery1969 must be filling his boots! :mrgreen:
i'd be filling my pants!! :roll:
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Derek27
Posts: 25159
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

greenmark wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2024 3:59 pm
Much as I dislike Trump it'd be a brave person to bet against him now.
1.62 v 2.6
Not really, it's reflected in the price. :)
greenmark
Posts: 6266
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:25 pm
greenmark wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2024 3:59 pm
Much as I dislike Trump it'd be a brave person to bet against him now.
1.62 v 2.6
Not really, it's reflected in the price. :)
Don't be obscure.
The market say's Trump will win. Perhaps you are trading as the market changes. Fair enough. If however you are looking at the final outcome Trump is going to win.
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

I still think the odds are way out.

PA is the main critical state because of electoral college votes. The female registration vote has increased by 2 to 1 compared to new male vote registration.

Like I said, I think they coming out to vote on abortion rights. Which favours Harris.
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wearthefoxhat
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Quick, Hurry....last chance...

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Dallas
Posts: 23510
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Keep an eye on Iowa, thats been won by Trump easily in 2016 and 2020 and has been considered a easy win again this year - until a few days ago a poll put Harris 3pts ahead for the first time ever - If that flips it will send some shocks through republican camp
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jimibt
Posts: 4195
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm

this feels like the brexit feeling in 2016 - i.e. a lot of uncertainty mixed with some very SURE expectations. wouldn't want to call this one, tho for sure, Trump will know if/when the writing is on the wall and will no doubt declare at that point that he has in fact won, thus ensuring his supporters will see red should the result mysteriously TURN the other way.
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Derek27
Posts: 25159
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greenmark wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:40 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:25 pm
greenmark wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2024 3:59 pm
Much as I dislike Trump it'd be a brave person to bet against him now.
1.62 v 2.6
Not really, it's reflected in the price. :)
Don't be obscure.
The market say's Trump will win. Perhaps you are trading as the market changes. Fair enough. If however you are looking at the final outcome Trump is going to win.
Don't you understand betting? A 62% chance doesn't mean he's going to win!!
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jimibt
Posts: 4195
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2024 5:21 pm
greenmark wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:40 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:25 pm


Not really, it's reflected in the price. :)
Don't be obscure.
The market say's Trump will win. Perhaps you are trading as the market changes. Fair enough. If however you are looking at the final outcome Trump is going to win.
Don't you understand betting? A 62% chance doesn't mean he's going to win!!
dazza - have some k00l aid man!! :lol:

in other news -dog walking time
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

In other news, gun shops in the USA are recording record sales of firearms and ammunition with large queues outside their shops.

Not really surprising as the above happens every election cycle. Normally Republican voters think if the Democrats win then they will attempt restrictions.

But like I said many times, presidents can change, if their party doesn’t win the senate then whoever sits in the White House really doesn’t have that much power.

It’s going to be fun watching this. Really hope Orange Man doesn’t win as he very likely to screw Labour in the UK, Mexico and Canada, plus Europe, Ukraine etc.
greenmark
Posts: 6266
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2024 5:21 pm
greenmark wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:40 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:25 pm


Not really, it's reflected in the price. :)
Don't be obscure.
The market say's Trump will win. Perhaps you are trading as the market changes. Fair enough. If however you are looking at the final outcome Trump is going to win.
Don't you understand betting? A 62% chance doesn't mean he's going to win!!
But more likely than 2.6?
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