In play - laying a horse way out in front

[Fugazi]

Over a small sample I'm doing really well just watching the favourite closely for subtle signs of effort - i.e jockey uses the whip halfway through a chase, or is having to keep tugging the reins to hold it back etc.

There have been races where I've just not been able to get involved as the favourite can be miles ahead and I just can't seem to gauge if its going to tire or make it to the end. Is this where you need in depth knowledge of what pace the horse is capable of running the course?

[JuiceyJones]

Historical splits for track, distance and going + rating and weight data? If i can remember right BA can run something like that in-play via TPD so you can see if a front runner is way ahead or behind. No idea how accurate it is though. I just use the ladders for in-play these days.

Personally never been brave enough to lay a front runner in play (generally). I think they type of race would be very important too. Strong fav, comp, open. Ladders move very differently for different types of races early and late. Also (just my opinion) i think there are a couple of easier ways to trade in-play than laying front runners.

Good luck though.

[Fugazi]

Historical splits for track, distance and going + rating and weight data? If i can remember right BA can run something like that in-play via TPD so you can see if a front runner is way ahead or behind. No idea how accurate it is though. I just use the ladders for in-play these days.

Personally never been brave enough to lay a front runner in play (generally). I think they type of race would be very important too. Strong fav, comp, open. Ladders move very differently for different types of races early and late. Also (just my opinion) i think there are a couple of easier ways to trade in-play than laying front runners.

Good luck though.

Yep much agree, probably not worth it as so fsr I've been successful in-play laying a favourite further back thats showing signs of trouble.

That said, did place a small amount on a horse at 1.1 today that still had a few to jump. As I thought it had gone out too quick!

[JuiceyJones]

In-play corelation toy-thingey might be helpful for races with 2 strong favs with one well in front? But I guess you can see all of that on the ladders.

[MrJoeBlack]

Look for cadence error (relative to the field) changes at key parts of the race.
If a horse is out in front having had a soft lead then this is obviously quite different to a horse pulling itself to the front and exhausting energy in doing so.
However much like a runner who goes out too hard at the start of the race, you will not see the impact of this until the stride begins to shorten. It's why a horse can go from travelling 33mph to pretty much going up and down on the spot... it's like the fuel hasn't been used economically enough in the car and they have bottomed it out with half a lap to go.
This can be a very profitable strategy with favourites because of course the market has overreacted to the optics.
There's a few freebies in there - hopefully you find it helpful.

[Dublin_Flyer]

I'd be very cautious but for more direct reasons than MrJoeBlacks reasons - in NH racing, even with a big lead, they still have obstacles to jump or hurdle so there's always the chance of a fuck up there.

In flat or AW of course that risk isn't there but there's been a good few cases in recent years of somebody getting a huge lead, then the field can't reel them in and they win by a country mile. I'd hazard a guess that it's a bad judgement of pace and distance combined with inexperience, so App Hcaps and other all apprentice races could be avoided or at least looked at very closely.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/sport/horse- ... n-33988141 That's an example of definitely Squeaky bum time for laying the way out leader

[ForFolksSake]

Historical splits for track, distance and going + rating and weight data? If i can remember right BA can run something like that in-play via TPD so you can see if a front runner is way ahead or behind. No idea how accurate it is though. I just use the ladders for in-play these days.

Personally never been brave enough to lay a front runner in play (generally). I think they type of race would be very important too. Strong fav, comp, open. Ladders move very differently for different types of races early and late. Also (just my opinion) i think there are a couple of easier ways to trade in-play than laying front runners.

Good luck though.

Yep much agree, probably not worth it as so fsr I've been successful in-play laying a favourite further back thats showing signs of trouble.

That said, did place a small amount on a horse at 1.1 today that still had a few to jump. As I thought it had gone out too quick!

Newbury 12:40
Roysse - 25 lengths ahead when fell last

[Fugazi]

Historical splits for track, distance and going + rating and weight data? If i can remember right BA can run something like that in-play via TPD so you can see if a front runner is way ahead or behind. No idea how accurate it is though. I just use the ladders for in-play these days.

Personally never been brave enough to lay a front runner in play (generally). I think they type of race would be very important too. Strong fav, comp, open. Ladders move very differently for different types of races early and late. Also (just my opinion) i think there are a couple of easier ways to trade in-play than laying front runners.

Good luck though.

Yep much agree, probably not worth it as so fsr I've been successful in-play laying a favourite further back thats showing signs of trouble.

That said, did place a small amount on a horse at 1.1 today that still had a few to jump. As I thought it had gone out too quick!

Newbury 12:40
Roysse - 25 lengths ahead when fell last

I'll have to find statistics for likelihood of falling a few fences / hurdles out. Of course multi factoral but even just ballpark figures be handy

[tiyoun]

Historical splits for track, distance and going + rating and weight data? If i can remember right BA can run something like that in-play via TPD so you can see if a front runner is way ahead or behind. No idea how accurate it is though. I just use the ladders for in-play these days.

Personally never been brave enough to lay a front runner in play (generally). I think they type of race would be very important too. Strong fav, comp, open. Ladders move very differently for different types of races early and late. Also (just my opinion) i think there are a couple of easier ways to trade in-play than laying front runners.

Good luck though.

Yep much agree, probably not worth it as so fsr I've been successful in-play laying a favourite further back thats showing signs of trouble.

That said, did place a small amount on a horse at 1.1 today that still had a few to jump. As I thought it had gone out too quick!

Newbury 12:40
Roysse - 25 lengths ahead when fell last

Also clattered the last and blew the race last time out, so plenty of opportunity at 1.01 for those that did their homework.