TPD Services

[tico]

Hi,
So what some of you are saying here is that 'In Running' can be automated on BA . I also assume that if you are paying out 100 smackers a month then it must be paying (geegees in running) . Just looking at it with my logic I have done a fair bit of In running Trading but I depend entirely on my ability to anticipate the outcome of a race through form study ,jockey tactics etc. I have met with a reasonable amount of success but it is very time consuming because form study is slow so I can only play in about two or three races a day . So if I fork out a ton a month do you think this will cut time down .
I suppose what I am really getting at is this , If you have TPD does form analysis hinder or help ?
Kind Regards
Tico

[jamesedwards]

Hi,
So what some of you are saying here is that 'In Running' can be automated on BA . I also assume that if you are paying out 100 smackers a month then it must be paying (geegees in running) . Just looking at it with my logic I have done a fair bit of In running Trading but I depend entirely on my ability to anticipate the outcome of a race through form study ,jockey tactics etc. I have met with a reasonable amount of success but it is very time consuming because form study is slow so I can only play in about two or three races a day . So if I fork out a ton a month do you think this will cut time down .
I suppose what I am really getting at is this , If you have TPD does form analysis hinder or help ?
Kind Regards
Tico

I do in-running trading full time. I use TPD for automated bet placement and to augment my manual trading. I have never looked at a single line of form. But everyone needs an edge and these can come from very different approaches.

[tico]

I see what you mean , before I can explore things I may stick to my slower more conventional approach until I get the hang of things .On the form study approach I can say I have lost track of the time I have made a successful trade based on Jockey styles .You get to know their riding styles and it's surprising the number of jocks who fly off the bridle far too late on a steed that needs gentle coaxing . .
Do you use any of the servants on here .I have watched a lot of Peters videos ,the man has a natural intelligence and is a superb communicator but he keeps losing a simpleton like me
Kind Regards
Tico
PS Did you used to trade in running before you used TDP ?

[jamesedwards]

Yes and yes. The best thing to do is spend some quality time in Practice Mode just trying things out. So much opportunity, with or without TPD.

[millthuska]

Hi,
So what some of you are saying here is that 'In Running' can be automated on BA . I also assume that if you are paying out 100 smackers a month then it must be paying (geegees in running) . Just looking at it with my logic I have done a fair bit of In running Trading but I depend entirely on my ability to anticipate the outcome of a race through form study ,jockey tactics etc. I have met with a reasonable amount of success but it is very time consuming because form study is slow so I can only play in about two or three races a day . So if I fork out a ton a month do you think this will cut time down .
I suppose what I am really getting at is this , If you have TPD does form analysis hinder or help ?
Kind Regards
Tico

I do in-running trading full time. I use TPD for automated bet placement and to augment my manual trading. I have never looked at a single line of form. But everyone needs an edge and these can come from very different approaches.

Have you ever thought about trading different markets other than sports/betfair?

[jamesedwards]

Hi,
So what some of you are saying here is that 'In Running' can be automated on BA . I also assume that if you are paying out 100 smackers a month then it must be paying (geegees in running) . Just looking at it with my logic I have done a fair bit of In running Trading but I depend entirely on my ability to anticipate the outcome of a race through form study ,jockey tactics etc. I have met with a reasonable amount of success but it is very time consuming because form study is slow so I can only play in about two or three races a day . So if I fork out a ton a month do you think this will cut time down .
I suppose what I am really getting at is this , If you have TPD does form analysis hinder or help ?
Kind Regards
Tico

I do in-running trading full time. I use TPD for automated bet placement and to augment my manual trading. I have never looked at a single line of form. But everyone needs an edge and these can come from very different approaches.

Have you ever thought about trading different markets other than sports/betfair?

Not really. Such as what?

[csewell1987]

Do you trade in play or bet in play James? So are you opening up positions and closing them out or letting them run? The reason I ask is surely the trading aspect is fraught with danger. Obviously stakes will need to be higher to lock in any sort of worthwhile profit and anything can happen in running. Let's say you open a trade at 5 hoping it will come down to 4 but the runner falls then you have probably lost a fair chunk trying to get in and get out. Seems like actually betting would allow better liability control and bring with it better reward?

[tico]

Hi
You make a good point there . Personally I will just do a little trading on the horses (in Play) when I am almost certain that the race will pan out in a certain way . I don't think I could do a great deal more with trading because I view it akin to the old chestnut Stop at a winner .With the stop at a winner system you can go along fine till the tide turns against you then its a case of chasing losers. Now a lot of the clever bods on here say that if you lose a lot on a trade don't go chasing losses ,but surely the next trades you make are attempt at swinging back into profit(another way of saying chasing losses)
Another point is when do you get out of a trade ? With swing trade we let prices really go against us in the hope they will go the other way ,but if they don't...huge losses!!!
But judging by what a lot of traders say on here and other places ,they have ways of controlling all of this ,and there are constantly successful traders so there must be an approach that is successful somewhere.

[jamesedwards]

Ideally from an overall profitability perspective you should only ever place a trade when it has a positive expected value (+EV). Of course this includes opening trades, but should also include closing trades. Otherwise you are handing back some of your profit every time you trade out with a -EV trade.

Understandably many people feel safer trading out winning and/or losing positions to lock in profit positions. But in the long term you are effectively paying for a more consistent P&L by handing back some of your profit.

[csewell1987]

Yeah tico I presume that stop losses will be put in to prevent incurring huge losses but the worry is these will be skipped due to how volatile the in play markets are. James, I would be interested to know how you measure value in play? Obviously from a pre-off point of view you have the BSP as a guide to whether you are taking value or not. I am guessing your P/L tells you how good a judge you are for in play. Always been keen to get into in play seeing as its actually going off the event, unlike pre-off which is just market noise, but always felt like I was just outright gambling.

[ShaunWhite]

Start with small stakes and focus on getting one good value in-running bet in first. When you're profitable doing that then you could try and do 2 bets. That's the only difference between betting and trading, 'betting' is trying to find a value bet, 'trading' is being a smart arse and finding pairs of value bets.

Stake so it's your choice to either close a position based on the market or choose to let it run, if not you'll often be forced into taking lousy prices (snatched gains or panic stop losses) and the -EV on those individual bets will blow any +EV you've gained elsewhere.

[tico]

Hi James,
Aha!!! negative and positive expectation IMHO , is just like value betting...subjectivity dressed up as quasi science.
Kind Regards
Tico

[ShaunWhite]

I would be interested to know how you measure value in play?

Compare your prices with those available a few secs later (10?). It's not exact but EMH should mean the +10s prices are about 0EV on avg so a fair benchmark. But like BSP, it might be 'correct' on large samples but individual prices aren't so use a decent sample size.

A gain at 10s after a bet sounds like a 'trade' opportunity but you're highly unlikely to get those theoretically available prices so be wary of that. It validates your previous decision but shouldn't justify your next one. 10s later that closing bet might be shown to have been poor EV.

[ShaunWhite]

Hi James,
Aha!!! negative and positive expectation IMHO , is just like value betting...subjectivity dressed up as quasi science.
Kind Regards
Tico

I'm sure your insurance company will be interested to know they've calculated the EV on your premiums using 'quasi' science. They'd argue its objective and I'd argue my +EV bets are objective too

[millthuska]

Ideally from an overall profitability perspective you should only ever place a trade when it has a positive expected value (+EV). Of course this includes opening trades, but should also include closing trades. Otherwise you are handing back some of your profit every time you trade out with a -EV trade.

Understandably many people feel safer trading out winning and/or losing positions to lock in profit positions. But in the long term you are effectively paying for a more consistent P&L by handing back some of your profit.

I have been thinking a lot about this lately and thinking about my own results over the years. And this video of Peters gave me much pause for thought.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvu7wO90Fwo

The very act of greening up is whats making that strategy profitable. Even if Peter is taking -EV prices in running due to the volatility of the market. It's messed with my head a bit