TPD Services

[csewell1987]

Hi James,
Aha!!! negative and positive expectation IMHO , is just like value betting...subjectivity dressed up as quasi science.
Kind Regards
Tico

I'm sure your insurance company will be interested to know they've calculated the EV on your premiums using 'quasi' science. They'd argue its objective and I'd argue my +EV bets are objective too

I agree with that in terms of pre-off as you can gather data on the subject, just like the insurance company can. However in play is a little different surely having to make split second decisions as things are constantly moving? Maybe I have that wrong and you would view it that if the data backs it there and then, then place the bet/trade, like you would in the market outside of in play volatility?

[Fugazi]

Ideally from an overall profitability perspective you should only ever place a trade when it has a positive expected value (+EV). Of course this includes opening trades, but should also include closing trades. Otherwise you are handing back some of your profit every time you trade out with a -EV trade.

Understandably many people feel safer trading out winning and/or losing positions to lock in profit positions. But in the long term you are effectively paying for a more consistent P&L by handing back some of your profit.

I have been thinking a lot about this lately and thinking about my own results over the years. And this video of Peters gave me much pause for thought.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvu7wO90Fwo

The very act of greening up is whats making that strategy profitable. Even if Peter is taking -EV prices in running due to the volatility of the market. It's messed with my head a bit

In-play you can see big gaps between back and lay prices. When you green up , instead of taking something in the middle it has to accept either side of the gap.

If you entered the market super +EV, you will lose a slice of it but still profit.

Most likely, you enter a little +EV, but the chunk taken when greening then drags you into -EV

[Fugazi]

Hi James,
Aha!!! negative and positive expectation IMHO , is just like value betting...subjectivity dressed up as quasi science.
Kind Regards
Tico

I'm sure your insurance company will be interested to know they've calculated the EV on your premiums using 'quasi' science. They'd argue its objective and I'd argue my +EV bets are objective too

I agree with that in terms of pre-off as you can gather data on the subject, just like the insurance company can. However in play is a little different surely having to make split second decisions as things are constantly moving? Maybe I have that wrong and you would view it that if the data backs it there and then, then place the bet/trade, like you would in the market outside of in play volatility?

With TPD, you could have collected information about what pace a horse runs at and figure out if it has gone out too fast. Then, you calculate what the approximate odds should be.

As the horse has gone out too fast, it likely appears to be doing well and will get over backed. You then enter for a profit

Its just like Pre race. The difference is you probably need a program to calculate all this at lightening speed. Or have memorised lots and lots of rough ballpark figures with experience.

Its a much higher bar to entry, but therefore much more lucrative than pre race once youve cracked it

[Safeway]

I started using TPD at the beginning of this year and have used it on and off, having made a few errors. I was amazed at how quickly I could rack up profit but could lose it all very quickly.

Hold up horses are a problem whether you're backing or laying and it is they which have caused most of my losses.

The other problem have been those horses which lead from the off and then have the cheek to actually win Too fast at the off? No energy left in the final furlongs? Bollocks
Its not just sprints where this has caused me to lose. I remember a 2 mile NHF race where the unfancied leader at the start led the field, stayed the leader and won much to the displeasure of my bank Yes.....I know NHF races are quirky but......well!

Yes - most of what I do is laying but I have started backing now and then and yes OK

I'm now getting serious and frustrated its Christmas 'coz I want to be doing today what I did on the last two days we had TPD-covered races. Basically I had a good couple of days doing it different!

Very happy to discuss. I don't have a magic formula to keep secret