the shape of things to come

[tico]

Hi all,
I would say that within 8 to 12 months trading on betfair will be 99% AI drones and 1% real folk.
The rapid way AI is progressing in the sports world is both scary and fascinating
What do other people think...will BA be redundant 12 months down the line
Kind regards
Tico

[Safeway]

Hi all,
I would say that within 8 to 12 months trading on betfair will be 99% AI drones and 1% real folk.
The rapid way AI is progressing in the sports world is both scary and fascinating
What do other people think...will BA be redundant 12 months down the line
Kind regards
Tico

Nope....you're getting carried away

[tico]

Hi Safeway,
I wish I was getting carried away ,but I think we will witness a similar thing on BF as we have witnessed with Online poker ,where you at first had human players ,then Bots and now AI drones .It wont lead to the demise of theses poker sites because they live off the commission ,just like BF .So the quicker BA implements AI the better.
Kind Regards
Tico

[Euler]

Hi Safeway,
I wish I was getting carried away ,but I think we will witness a similar thing on BF as we have witnessed with Online poker ,where you at first had human players ,then Bots and now AI drones .It wont lead to the demise of theses poker sites because they live off the commission ,just like BF .So the quicker BA implements AI the better.
Kind Regards
Tico

Somebody said the same to me 10 years ago, so I bet him I'd still be going strong a year later. Never heard from him again.

AI is pretty overhyped in it's current form, especially for this sort of stuff.

[napshnap]

Hi all,
I would say that within 8 to 12 months trading on betfair will be 99% AI drones and 1% real folk.
The rapid way AI is progressing in the sports world is both scary and fascinating
What do other people think...will BA be redundant 12 months down the line
Kind regards
Tico

viewtopic.php?p=369253#p369253

[jamesedwards]

What the hell is an AI drone?

These days people seem to be putting AI in front of everything.

There is zero risk of (proper) AI betting profitably this decade IMO.

[tico]

The difference between a Bot and a drone is that a Bot works on strict rules ,a drone is an AI bot which initially works on a series of principles but then modifies them in order to make the bot better ,so a drone is a bot betterer ,so it drones on and on and on and on ..till it gets it right...or makes a complete mess of things.

[Michael5482]

Hi all,
I would say that within 8 to 12 months trading on betfair will be 99% AI drones and 1% real folk.
The rapid way AI is progressing in the sports world is both scary and fascinating
What do other people think...will BA be redundant 12 months down the line
Kind regards
Tico

I'll be the in 1% "real folk" picking off the 99% "AI Drones"

[Fugazi]

To compare it to poker - Facebook created AI called Pluribus that beat all the top pros, but they refused to release it to the public. I expect it will take a few years yet for AI to fully trash online poker as the current AI is detectable.

Betfair differs to poker in one critical way however. Poker can be solved. By that, there is the optimal way to play every single imaginable position. AI can play in a way that cannot be exploited (lets not get into the game theory optimal debate)

Betfair markets are not solvable due to chaos theory - To take this to the extreme, an example of this would be the Sutton united goalkeeper that ate a pie during the match, which was available as a bet. On a smaller level, AI doesn't know which trainer ran their greyhound ragged that morning and fed it a load of mars bars. Betfair markets will become insanely tougher with AI, but always exploitable by humans. What could happen though is this increase difficulty, and bad media around AI and Betfair might dry up the remaining volume.

[Safeway]

Tico - you're describing a sci-fi scenario where life isn't worth living any more. We need to play and do something for ourselves and I guess/hope we always will need that.

[ShaunWhite]

Unless these 'AI drones' become sentient I'll remain 100% real folk running them, so if you're worried you can't beat them, join them. Whatever they are?

Live AI modelling would need quantum computing because it's so slow right now. If that becomes a common thing then you've got more to worry about than betting.

[Fugazi]

Unless these 'AI drones' become sentient I'll remain 100% real folk running them, so if you're worried you can't beat them, join them. Whatever they are?

Live AI modelling would need quantum computing because it's so slow right now. If that becomes a common thing then you've got more to worry about than betting.

Well, there was a time we used to load PC games off floppy disks.....

[ShaunWhite]

Well, there was a time we used to load PC games off floppy disks.....

Mine were on cassettes.

Just make hay while the sun shines, we can't predict the future although ironically that's the day job.

[eightbo]

...
Just make hay while the sun shines, we can't predict the future although ironically that's the day job.

Real. Can't help but feel I'm only tapped into like <10% of what I could be tapped into by the end of next year.
Feels like so much opportunity around. Even if things were to die out, or you get random ban or something, just stockpile all the cash you can now and you can definitely do something else with it in a post-betfair world instead in the event if needed

Surely you can just use neural nets to analyse recent stats to find value bets?
Thought hundreds and hundreds of people would be doing that by now for GH/HR.

If more players (automation) reach the same conclusion about a fair price, you would just get different market characteristics, but they should remain tradeable, just with a different style relevant to present market activity. Should just be ever-evolving so if you evolve along with it (pull old, create new), you should continuously make money. Anything new and useful should last a little bit before having to replace it because it's a slow evolution over time

[ShaunWhite]

Agree 8bo, there's already 100s of people doing crazy analytics, what people fear about tomorrow already happened last week. Tbh it's what quants do, we don't just stare out of the window for 40hrs a week or play with Excel pivot tables.

But if tech was the simple answer then nobody with TPD would lose. AI in the hands of a fool produces foolish output so fingers crossed for a golden age of accessibility and a swarm of shitbots.