Today's Football

[Michael5482]

Man City are shot to bits, no intensity, passion, no heart, no anything really, started off brightly and just faded away. Everton never change you know what your getting with them plenty of spirit, lack of quality and technically inept.

When you play sport at a high level confidence is everything and Man City are very short of it at the moment. Ultimately that's the managers job.

Pep's body language tells a story in itself, looks like he's had enough. 2nd half will be interesting as Everton aren't exactly going to go for it, they'll try to hold on for dear life for a point or hoping just to get that one golden chance. Ideal chance for City to have a go this half but don't know if they can match Everton's desire.

[Dublin_Flyer]

The Joy of Se.....greening!

[ShaunWhite]

Man City are shot to bits, no intensity, passion, no heart, no anything really.

When you play sport at a high level confidence is everything

Pep's body language tells a story in itself

It's like they already know the consequences of the 115 charges, and have done for a while.

[greenmark]

When you play sport at a high level confidence is everything

Pep's body language tells a story in itself

It's like they already know the consequences of the 115 charges, and have done for a while.

The murmer is Pep thinks he needs to rebuild his team. i dunno but might that mean those high paid stars have got the hump. Whichever way it is I have never seen a top team disintegrate like City since their defeat by Spurs at the end of October. 9 losses 2 draws 1 win. From a team that rarely drew and hardly ever lost. Quite staggering.
More than form or injuries, surely?

[megarain]

DIdnt know where to post this.

Sorry this failed - I did think Rory was gifted, thou never invested any money.

Its not easy.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... icate.html

[andy28]

Pep's body language tells a story in itself

It's like they already know the consequences of the 115 charges, and have done for a while.

The murmer is Pep thinks he needs to rebuild his team. i dunno but might that mean those high paid stars have got the hump. Whichever way it is I have never seen a top team disintegrate like City since their defeat by Spurs at the end of October. 9 losses 2 draws 1 win. From a team that rarely drew and hardly ever lost. Quite staggering.
More than form or injuries, surely?

Fatigue, I think Pep said at the start of the season there are too many games, I counted up how many games Haaland has played this year and its a round 30. Liverpool look like the only team that can play with a short turn around of the big 6. The rest are struggling in all fairness. You just have to look to see Forest in 2nd place, also teams like Fulham , Bouremouth are up the top of the table. You could argue 1 could do it but all 3?

I think Cities downfall is down to the 115 charges, fatigue, and also major personal changes have been on the cards for a while so that add more pressure. Overall looking at how other teams have performed I do think they are playing too many games and that is shown by teams like Forest near to top of the table. jmo

[greenmark]

It's like they already know the consequences of the 115 charges, and have done for a while.

The murmer is Pep thinks he needs to rebuild his team. i dunno but might that mean those high paid stars have got the hump. Whichever way it is I have never seen a top team disintegrate like City since their defeat by Spurs at the end of October. 9 losses 2 draws 1 win. From a team that rarely drew and hardly ever lost. Quite staggering.
More than form or injuries, surely?

Fatigue, I think Pep said at the start of the season there are too many games, I counted up how many games Haaland has played this year and its a round 30. Liverpool look like the only team that can play with a short turn around of the big 6. The rest are struggling in all fairness. You just have to look to see Forest in 2nd place, also teams like Fulham , Bouremouth are up the top of the table. You could argue 1 could do it but all 3?

I think Cities downfall is down to the 115 charges, fatigue, and also major personal changes have been on the cards for a while so that add more pressure. Overall looking at how other teams have performed I do think they are playing too many games and that is shown by teams like Forest near to top of the table. jmo

Perhaps the 115 is relevant. No decision till March, but why would you break your neck to have glory taken away from you in a trice.
I confess I'm indirectly biased towards Nun. A mate is a Wolves fan and was bereft when Nuno left. There's no doubt now he's a very good manager in the right environment. And I think it's because his players like him - on top of all the other stuff you need to herd a pack of cats.

[wearthefoxhat]

DIdnt know where to post this.

Sorry this failed - I did think Rory was gifted, thou never invested any money.

Its not easy.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... icate.html

Could well be another example of the "Black Market" bookies not paying out on the winners. "Unregulated" and the "Wild West" describe high risk investments in crypto, this also applies to the Asian underground bookies that know they can walk away and not pay.

Did the syndicate deposit the whole amount in one go? Likely a large % was, minus management commission. The winnings were likely kept in the account too and when it came time to withdraw any profit, or an amount to repay investors, that's when reality kicked in.

The betting model does sound a good one to create an edge. It's a similar way Starlizard (Tony Bloom) goes about things.

Edge.png

Wouldn't be too hard to put something together using the sofa-score data.

[ShaunWhite]

Wouldn't be too hard to put something together using the sofa-score data.

You just need to work out what the 'and factors' are.

[wearthefoxhat]

Wouldn't be too hard to put something together using the sofa-score data.

You just need to work out what the 'and factors' are.

Can imagine any model that's used will have certain factors that are weighted in favour of others.

A starting point could be the team strength(s)/weakness(es) and which formations impact the opposition the most. The coaching staff can only work with what they have, so player ratings, combined with formations and other players that gel which each other is important. Head to Head Manager v Manager is a good metric as they can often out-think the other if they know how they may set the team up.

Spurs Team.png

How a team passes the ball, when in possession, is often overlooked. A key player out with an injury will impact this and needs to be factored into the overall ratings model.

Passes.png

My own view is it's important to see how resiliant the defence is and whom is playing alongside whom. The main leagues, for the most part, score goals for fun. If the match-ups are evened out then the model can be adjusted accordingly. Parking the bus can only work for so long, if the data also shows a flair with passing and accuracy, then a counter attack can be effective.

Defending.png

There are the normal shots on/off target, corners, Xg stuff that can be used too, more as confirmation/consistency of the team.

[Dublin_Flyer]

You can't account for the pure psychological randomness of a player having just a bad or unlucky day, players losing form or faith in the manager or complete bizarreness like Cucurella wearing the wrong boots and directly being at fault for 2 goals a few weeks ago.

I was the first lad on my team as a young fella to get Cica Blades which were I think the first boots available here with blades and not studs. Only problem was all the blades were horizontal, so it was fine running forward or backwards, but if you had to move sideways on a wet pitch it was like wearing a pair of skis

[Michael5482]

Wouldn't be too hard to put something together using the sofa-score data.

You just need to work out what the 'and factors' are.

Can imagine any model that's used will have certain factors that are weighted in favour of others.

A starting point could be the team strength(s)/weakness(es) and which formations impact the opposition the most. The coaching staff can only work with what they have, so player ratings, combined with formations and other players that gel which each other is important. Head to Head Manager v Manager is a good metric as they can often out-think the other if they know how they may set the team up.


Spurs Team.png


How a team passes the ball, when in possession, is often overlooked. A key player out with an injury will impact this and needs to be factored into the overall ratings model.



Passes.png


My own view is it's important to see how resiliant the defence is and whom is playing alongside whom. The main leagues, for the most part, score goals for fun. If the match-ups are evened out then the model can be adjusted accordingly. Parking the bus can only work for so long, if the data also shows a flair with passing and accuracy, then a counter attack can be effective.


Defending.png


There are the normal shots on/off target, corners, Xg stuff that can be used too, more as confirmation/consistency of the team.

There seems to be a general obsession with finding goals everywhere you look these days, personally I find it easier not finding goals. The Premier League averaging about 3 goals per game, a goal every 30 mins (more if you include injury time) these average 30 odd mins in-between offer more value to me.

Although I model games I don't think there is any substitute trading a game while watching it.

[greenmark]

You just need to work out what the 'and factors' are.

Can imagine any model that's used will have certain factors that are weighted in favour of others.

A starting point could be the team strength(s)/weakness(es) and which formations impact the opposition the most. The coaching staff can only work with what they have, so player ratings, combined with formations and other players that gel which each other is important. Head to Head Manager v Manager is a good metric as they can often out-think the other if they know how they may set the team up.


Spurs Team.png


How a team passes the ball, when in possession, is often overlooked. A key player out with an injury will impact this and needs to be factored into the overall ratings model.



Passes.png


My own view is it's important to see how resiliant the defence is and whom is playing alongside whom. The main leagues, for the most part, score goals for fun. If the match-ups are evened out then the model can be adjusted accordingly. Parking the bus can only work for so long, if the data also shows a flair with passing and accuracy, then a counter attack can be effective.


Defending.png


There are the normal shots on/off target, corners, Xg stuff that can be used too, more as confirmation/consistency of the team.

There seems to be a general obsession with finding goals everywhere you look these days, personally I find it easier not finding goals. The Premier League averaging about 3 goals per game, a goal every 30 mins (more if you include injury time) these average 30 odd mins in-between offer more value to me.

Although I model games I don't think there is any substitute trading a game while watching it.

I agree although I only look at personnel/bench and the atmos around the club eg Plymouth - from early in Rooney's tenure it became clear they weren't going to play for him. So you watch with a fundamental "fact" influencing what you do. This works for me providing I put the work in.

[greenmark]

It's like they already know the consequences of the 115 charges, and have done for a while.

The murmer is Pep thinks he needs to rebuild his team. i dunno but might that mean those high paid stars have got the hump. Whichever way it is I have never seen a top team disintegrate like City since their defeat by Spurs at the end of October. 9 losses 2 draws 1 win. From a team that rarely drew and hardly ever lost. Quite staggering.
More than form or injuries, surely?

Fatigue, I think Pep said at the start of the season there are too many games, I counted up how many games Haaland has played this year and its a round 30. Liverpool look like the only team that can play with a short turn around of the big 6. The rest are struggling in all fairness. You just have to look to see Forest in 2nd place, also teams like Fulham , Bouremouth are up the top of the table. You could argue 1 could do it but all 3?

I think Cities downfall is down to the 115 charges, fatigue, and also major personal changes have been on the cards for a while so that add more pressure. Overall looking at how other teams have performed I do think they are playing too many games and that is shown by teams like Forest near to top of the table. jmo

Not sure about too many games - except for mentally. Physically at any level a game every 3 days is easy. Most sporty people would do far more than that (probably to the detriment of their overall fitness). But mentally it must be gradually draining (especially being subjected to the full force of Pep's obsessive energy every day).
City for me has now become a top watch when available. And it does have to be live, highlights are no use at all for predicting the next game.

[Michael5482]

A knighthood for Gareth Southgate, good grief talk about rewarding mediocrity. No question he's an honest genuine individual but so are millions of other people, you can't give out one of the country's highest honours for winning absolutely nothing. It's akin to awarding a Victoria Cross for rescuing a cat out of a tree while off-duty.

I suppose this is where we are as a society with all the DEI nonsense where meritocracy is completely out the window.