Hi, I’m researching exacta and trifecta bets using win market to calculate fair value in the exacta and trifecta price. Why when I find the theoretical exacta is under priced and I consistently buy them over time it does not make money. I spend so much on the other cheap bets that don’t come in that I spend the value away. Any ideas please on how to refine this when I see a ton of cheap value combinations? Many thanks
Also is there a way to calculate exacta and trifecta using place market or should it only be win?
Regards
Exotic betting
As Peter says they are not good value.
Many years ago, (last century) the bookmakers use to use a chart in the UK for straight forecasts, so if a 6/4 shot won and a 3/1 shot was second you just looked up the chart on the wall in the bookmakers to find the payout odds. The bookmakers caught a cold on some races so they changed it to Computer Straight Forecast, this basically meant if two outsiders came first and second no way would it pay as much as the old chart forecast. As you would expect the algorithm works in the bookies favour.
The exactor, which is the totes version of the CSF is also not a good payout as the tote has extracted costs from the pool before payout.
I cannot see value in these bets unless you know something.
The exactor markets on the exchange whenever I look has such a huge spread and many empty ladders.
Dog racing is the perfect example, if we look at Tricasts, there is a minimum of six runners in Tricast races, there are (6 x 5 x 4) = 120 possible Tricast results in a six runner race. When do you really ever see a Tricast pay more than £120 for a £1 stake in a six runner greyhound race, someone might of but I have never seen it.
Many years ago, (last century) the bookmakers use to use a chart in the UK for straight forecasts, so if a 6/4 shot won and a 3/1 shot was second you just looked up the chart on the wall in the bookmakers to find the payout odds. The bookmakers caught a cold on some races so they changed it to Computer Straight Forecast, this basically meant if two outsiders came first and second no way would it pay as much as the old chart forecast. As you would expect the algorithm works in the bookies favour.
The exactor, which is the totes version of the CSF is also not a good payout as the tote has extracted costs from the pool before payout.
I cannot see value in these bets unless you know something.
The exactor markets on the exchange whenever I look has such a huge spread and many empty ladders.
Dog racing is the perfect example, if we look at Tricasts, there is a minimum of six runners in Tricast races, there are (6 x 5 x 4) = 120 possible Tricast results in a six runner race. When do you really ever see a Tricast pay more than £120 for a £1 stake in a six runner greyhound race, someone might of but I have never seen it.
It depends on where you are but I do well in exotic bets mostly First Fours, however the only way to do it is if there is a carry forward (not struck race before) as this adds dead money into the pool. So you need to bet into a Totalisator Pools.
Back in the day Jackpots (select last 6 winners on the card) was a good way to go as well, wait for the pool to exceed 100K, got a couple of $25k plus payouts
Back in the day Jackpots (select last 6 winners on the card) was a good way to go as well, wait for the pool to exceed 100K, got a couple of $25k plus payouts
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Borisbulldog18
- Posts: 8
- Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:55 pm
Thanks for the replies. I’m betting into pools very late. I would have thought a way to overlay or optimise it but seems not. Can you calculate trifecta and exacta from place market in any way?
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Borisbulldog18
- Posts: 8
- Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:55 pm
Sorry one more question, does anyone know how merged pools work. How can I work out how they split win, exacta, trifecta? Is it equally split? How can I work out my bet on the pool? Many thx in advance
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Borisbulldog18
- Posts: 8
- Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:55 pm
Can anyone show me the maths of how are merged pool works pls. How trifecta feeds into win and place etc? Any help appreciated - wondering if any value still there in merged pool? Thanks
In Australia the pools are all independent.Borisbulldog18 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 26, 2024 11:53 pmCan anyone show me the maths of how are merged pool works pls. How trifecta feeds into win and place etc? Any help appreciated - wondering if any value still there in merged pool? Thanks