Fundamental Question about Trading Outright Markets

[Blue2018]

I suspect many will think this is a hoax however I’m deadly serious and so determined am I to get the definitive answer to this question that I’m now writing to a large number of maths departments to ask what they make of it and am willing to fund a comprehensive study of outright markets if need be.
(Not just to answer this question mind)

I’ve been betting on outright markets for a quarter of a century and have made a living from doing so for 20 years.
And yet I just can’t see that my bets can possibly be value!
And have come to the conclusion that somehow in long term markets you don’t need wrong prices.
Yet I just can’t find that information anywhere else so on that basis I guess I must be wrong ?
And if I’m wrong then either I’ve been incredibly lucky or there are an unfeasibly large number of value selections at the top of the betting in outright markets. In pretty much every sport.
And I’ve now reached the point where I absolutely wish to know which it is. Especially as I now have to use shops and other peoples accounts.
Effectively I trade the outright markets. With bookmakers to be clear.
So I guess the question is Do you need value to profitably trade outright markets?
And if you don’t why is this important information not easier to find?
I’ve placed a huge volume of bets over the last 20 years especially so I really am using a large sample you understand.

If you guys insist it’s impossible to win even from outrights without value that’s fine and I totally understand.
But a comprehensive study will follow.
Cheers

[jamesedwards]

More info would be useful. Do you mean just favs? What sort of sports? Are you backing with bookmakers or exchanges? How do you choose when to get involved? What criteria do you use?

[Euler]

I asked ChatGPT for a summary

Here’s a clearer and more structured version of your text with bullet points for better readability:

---

I suspect many will think this is a hoax, but I assure you, I’m deadly serious. My determination to get a definitive answer to this question has led me to take the following steps:

- I’m writing to a large number of mathematics departments to ask for their perspective on this matter.
- I’m willing to fund a comprehensive study of outright markets if necessary (not just to answer this specific question, but to deepen understanding overall).

### My Background and Question:
- **Experience**:
- I’ve been betting on outright markets for 25 years.
- For 20 years, I’ve successfully made a living from it.

- **The Paradox**:
- Despite my success, I struggle to see how my bets can consistently hold value.
- I’ve come to the conclusion that, in long-term outright markets, **you may not actually need wrong prices to succeed**.
- However, I cannot find any information or studies supporting this idea, which makes me question if I’m mistaken.

- **The Dilemma**:
- If I am wrong, two possibilities arise:
1. I’ve been incredibly lucky over the years.
2. There is an unexpectedly large number of value opportunities at the top of the betting in outright markets across virtually all sports.

- **My Goal**:
- I’m now at a point where I absolutely need to know which of these scenarios is true.
- This has become even more pressing as I now rely on shops and other people’s accounts to continue my betting activities.

### Key Question:
- **Do you need value to profitably trade outright markets?**
- If not, why isn’t this crucial information easier to find?

### Supporting Information:
- My betting strategy involves trading outright markets, specifically with bookmakers.
- Over the last 20 years, I’ve placed a **huge volume of bets**, giving me a large sample size to draw conclusions from.

### Conclusion:
- If your position is that it’s impossible to win from outright markets without value, I understand and accept that.
- However, to settle this once and for all, I am prepared to fund a **comprehensive study** into this area.

[Euler]

If you are using bookmaker in win markets, you've been incredibly lucky. Also begs the question of why you don't use an exchange?

I hope you are not planning to offer a 'service'.

[sionascaig]

There is no need for an academic study. The maths is quite simple.

There are "academic" studies on whether bookmakers always get it right and tend to focus on specific scenarios, e.g. after the fall of the 1st wicket in a T20 cricket match ==> which found, at least when the study was carried out, the bookie can get it wrong & value can be found if prepared to shop around...

==> but approach not viable as accounts would be shut down very quickly and / or restricted so ultimately effort required to maintain approach outweighed any value.

[Fugazi]

Just post a link to your service already or send me it in DM so you can be banned

[ShaunWhite]

The average odds you get need to be better than the average odds of the events happening. Think coin toss. Same when you're having multiple bets (trading), the point at which red turns to green is the net price you've worked up, and a greened position is the clearest example of +ev there is.

[henbet22]

The prices are wrong. Therefore its value. Chelsea at 5/2 in a two horse race in 2004/5 vs Arsenal after 9 games. Arsenal 28-1 at Xmas 97 Leicester were 11-1 at Xmas but 5-2 coming down the stretch vs Spurs. Odds info read = value

[Kai]

So I guess the question is Do you need value to profitably trade outright markets?

No, it's entirely possible to consistently profit from micro-inefficiencies in the market rather than relying on outright value (e.g. HFT)

And if you don’t why is this important information not easier to find?

Idk, hard to quantify maybe? But it shouldn't take 20 years, people on here can probably do it in 20mins if you provide them with more info

[ShaunWhite]

No, it's entirely possible to consistently profit from micro-inefficiencies in the market rather than relying on outright value (e.g. HFT)

At the end of the day we all just have a whole heap of bets that each settle individually. Market sub-totals are for periodic commission. If you make money you're getting +EV whether you like it or not .

[Kai]

No, it's entirely possible to consistently profit from micro-inefficiencies in the market rather than relying on outright value (e.g. HFT)

At the end of the day we all just have a whole heap of bets that each settle individually. Market sub-totals are for periodic commission. If you make money you're getting +EV whether you like it or not .

That's always the long-standing debate that seems to crop up on an annual basis:

Short-term vs long-term

Intrinsic value vs leveraging volatility

Find value/oppo vs create your own

At the end of the day you're not far from a manual scalper/MM, you're just hedging your risk across all markets and automating the execution at the expense of hitrate

[Anbell]

I suspect many will think this is a hoax however I’m deadly serious and so determined am I to get the definitive answer to this question that I’m now writing to a large number of maths departments to ask what they make of it and am willing to fund a comprehensive study of outright markets if need be.
(Not just to answer this question mind)

I’ve been betting on outright markets for a quarter of a century and have made a living from doing so for 20 years.
And yet I just can’t see that my bets can possibly be value!
And have come to the conclusion that somehow in long term markets you don’t need wrong prices.
Yet I just can’t find that information anywhere else so on that basis I guess I must be wrong ?
And if I’m wrong then either I’ve been incredibly lucky or there are an unfeasibly large number of value selections at the top of the betting in outright markets. In pretty much every sport.
And I’ve now reached the point where I absolutely wish to know which it is. Especially as I now have to use shops and other peoples accounts.
Effectively I trade the outright markets. With bookmakers to be clear.
So I guess the question is Do you need value to profitably trade outright markets?
And if you don’t why is this important information not easier to find?
I’ve placed a huge volume of bets over the last 20 years especially so I really am using a large sample you understand.

If you guys insist it’s impossible to win even from outrights without value that’s fine and I totally understand.
But a comprehensive study will follow.
Cheers

I have three questions:
1) Do you have other sources of income?
2) Do you have records?
C) Why are you asking these questions now?

[ANGELS15]

I suspect many will think this is a hoax however I’m deadly serious and so determined am I to get the definitive answer to this question that I’m now writing to a large number of maths departments to ask what they make of it and am willing to fund a comprehensive study of outright markets if need be.
(Not just to answer this question mind)

I’ve been betting on outright markets for a quarter of a century and have made a living from doing so for 20 years.
And yet I just can’t see that my bets can possibly be value!
And have come to the conclusion that somehow in long term markets you don’t need wrong prices.
Yet I just can’t find that information anywhere else so on that basis I guess I must be wrong ?
And if I’m wrong then either I’ve been incredibly lucky or there are an unfeasibly large number of value selections at the top of the betting in outright markets. In pretty much every sport.
And I’ve now reached the point where I absolutely wish to know which it is. Especially as I now have to use shops and other peoples accounts.
Effectively I trade the outright markets. With bookmakers to be clear.
So I guess the question is Do you need value to profitably trade outright markets?
And if you don’t why is this important information not easier to find?
I’ve placed a huge volume of bets over the last 20 years especially so I really am using a large sample you understand.

If you guys insist it’s impossible to win even from outrights without value that’s fine and I totally understand.
But a comprehensive study will follow.
Cheers

You say you've been doing this for 20 years even having to use other people's accounts to get on. This would indicate that you're very successful. Yet you don't know the answers to these questions? You must surely have a successful set of guidelines that you work to to cover the various contingencies etc?

[ShaunWhite]

How are you 'trading' with bookmakers?

Not sure you need to contact maths departments. If you ask gpt if you can profit from betting long term without +EV it's a definative 'No'.

Why +EV is Essential for Long-Term Profit:

1. Mathematical Certainty: If your bets have negative expected value (-EV), then over a large sample size, losses will compound due to the house edge or market efficiency.

[Fugazi]

You're all wasting your time responding