Fundamental Question about Trading Outright Markets

[ShaunWhite]

BSP is only theoretically accurate over very large samples, that site seems to suggest they picked about 2,400 horses out of 160,000 that ran in those 2 yrs. About 1.5% so hardly 'proof' of anything related to bsp. They also use the old 'points' system which skews results depending on price. It's a trivial sample and a flawed comparison leading to a mathematically incoherent conclusion.

Don't shoot the messenger, gpt4o wrote the bulk of that.

[ruthlessimon]

I can make a profit from a Bet365 account so so easily.

I’m actually 95% certain you don’t need value in outright markets but I want 100% certainty one way or the other.

*commission at 0% because you shouldn't be laying

[Euler]

BSP is a flawed metric, you almost certainly can't get the reported BSP price. Great for back testing, hopeless for actual activity. It simply is not an accurate reflection of the market.

[Fugazi]

I can make a profit from a Bet365 account so so easily.

I’m actually 95% certain you don’t need value in outright markets but I want 100% certainty one way or the other.

*commission at 0% because you shouldn't be laying

Oddsmonkey is great, but you get gubbed in the end

[ruthlessimon]

Oddsmonkey is great, but you get gubbed in the end

Indeed. It's easy for us to bash bookies on here but they are a licence to print money, for a time. Also a great way of learning about markets. I'm jealous of Paul Merson, his Bet365 is probably worth a bl00dy fortune. I'd pay him £5K for it

[Fugazi]

Oddsmonkey is great, but you get gubbed in the end

Indeed. It's easy for us to bash bookies on here but they are a licence to print money, for a time. Also a great way of learning about markets. I'm jealous of Paul Merson, his Bet365 is probably worth a bl00dy fortune. I'd pay him £5K for it

My 365 is over 15k in profit. Managed to keep the account 18 months so far. Just a matter of time. I've come to terms with it hah.

[Lynskey888]

I noticed recently that Bet365 actually have rules which make arbing a breach of their terms and conditions. There are also clauses which entitle them to recover losses incurred through arbing.

How they would prove an account holder was laying off risk on an exchange I do not know.

[jamesedwards]

I noticed recently that Bet365 actually have rules which make arbing a breach of their terms and conditions. There are also clauses which entitle them to recover losses incurred through arbing.

How they would prove an account holder was laying off risk on an exchange I do not know.

Only a matter of time until these fuckers add a clause allowing them to recover losses incurred from players winning too many bets.

[Fugazi]

I noticed recently that Bet365 actually have rules which make arbing a breach of their terms and conditions. There are also clauses which entitle them to recover losses incurred through arbing.

How they would prove an account holder was laying off risk on an exchange I do not know.

Doesn't matter they can afford a good lawyer(s)

I understand the reverse argument that it takes no skill to arb and theyre not going to just give you unlimited free money they'd be under in a week

But then, its ok for other people to lose their home

I guess nobody forces people to use their service

[Lynskey888]

I'd be interested to know if anyone has actually had funds removed from their account due to arbing.

As I said, I don't see how a bookie can ever know that counter bets have been placed. If you 're simply backing for value, getting involved when you see prices wildly out of line with the rest of the industry, you could leave yourself exposed to accusations of arbing.

[ruthlessimon]

I'd be interested to know if anyone has actually had funds removed from their account due to arbing.

The only horror stories I've seen involve multiaccounters. I've been banned mid bet, but never had a confiscation

As I said, I don't see how a bookie can ever know that counter bets have been placed.

I imagine they have statistics on what an average punter's betting behavior looks like, and anyone on the extreme end of the bell curve gets hit with the ban stick.

[henbet22]

And if I’m wrong then either I’ve been incredibly lucky or there are an unfeasibly large number of value selections at the top of the betting in outright markets. In pretty much every sport.

Ok So Leeds are 9k on to win 4k are you backing Leeds?
If so why?

If not why are you backing Sheff Utd and/or Burnley and/or Sunderland?

3 reasons for each. Yay or nay the Yorkshire Real Madrid?

Over to you.