Front Runners - How Important?

[Blondie]

I noticed a few times an outsider getting backed hard. couldn't understand why. remembered front runners do this.

1. How important do people think it is to be aware of potential front runners when pre off trading?

2. Whats the quickest way to check these without doing tons of research like those traders do? Is there a website where all the pacey runners are listed for each day?

[Euler]

In-play style is irrelevant for pre-off trading.

But it can be important for in-play. Look at the pace section on ATR

https://www.attheraces.com/racecards/

[Blondie]

In-play style is irrelevant for pre-off trading.

I am not looking at trading them. It seems to affect a pre off trade if one of them is a front runner and gets backed a lot by people who trade them.

https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/

page not found but found the cards thanks. they show which horse has most pace in each race but i was asking if theres somewhere the best picks for the whole day are listed? Would be nice to find a cheat sheet or twitter profile who list them for other in play traders so i can know before they ruin a nice trade by all piling in!

thanks for responding

[Euler]

Missed the 's' of 'racecards'

Be careful looking for front runner lists. A lot of people offer, this runner traded x% lower, type lists. These are not the ways to look for front runners. You should be referring to likely pace charts.

[ShaunWhite]

When Peter says it's irrelevant, and then you say "It seems to affect a pre off trade". Don't you stop to think who's right?

As a beginner if Peter said jump, all I thought was how high.

[tiyoun]

When Peter says it's irrelevant, and then you say "It seems to affect a pre off trade". Don't you stop to think who's right?

As a beginner if Peter said jump, all I thought was how high.

OP isn’t wrong though is he? Front runners affect pre off trades almost daily over the sticks when they line up prominently and steam on the ladders in the final 30 seconds. I’d be interested to know if Peter would actively take up a lay position if he saw this unfolding, if not I’d assume it’s not irrelevant.

[ShaunWhite]

OP isn’t wrong though is he? Front runners affect pre off trades almost daily over the sticks when they line up prominently and steam on the ladders in the final 30 seconds. I’d be interested to know if Peter would actively take up a lay position if he saw this unfolding, if not I’d assume it’s not irrelevant.

You get the dobbers who get excited if something lines up prominently but you've got about 10s to get in and out, and for a total beginner I'd think there's more important things to do than start trawling through pace notes. If you ask for advice then it'll come in lots of forms, I was just more curious about questioning someone who's has such a strong track record when it comes to training, aka PW.

Irrelevant in general? I'd agree with you. But irrelevant in context, I think so.

Common story though @tiyoun, we all start with ideas and after 6 months your spirits are so crushed you'll just do what you're told

[wearthefoxhat]

When Peter says it's irrelevant, and then you say "It seems to affect a pre off trade". Don't you stop to think who's right?

As a beginner if Peter said jump, all I thought was how high.

OP isn’t wrong though is he? Front runners affect pre off trades almost daily over the sticks when they line up prominently and steam on the ladders in the final 30 seconds. I’d be interested to know if Peter would actively take up a lay position if he saw this unfolding, if not I’d assume it’s not irrelevant.

Usually, 30 seconds before the off is when the experienced traders are exiting their trades.

The DOB or FR information, with practice, can be identified overnight using pace maps (free) on ATR as Peter said.

https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Wol ... -2025/2030

8.30 Wolv 5f.png

The pace forecast (arrowed) , in this race could be weak, so it's possible, the likely pace setter (Next Second @22/1) might lead, but something else may adopt different tactics before/during the race and become the front runner.

The unknown, is, what are connections intentions in the race? I've seen hold up types with no FR history, try new tactics from the front and jockeys given the nod to hold up a normal front runner in behind a wall of horses, maybe on purpose.

I'd say it's worthwhile producing your own list(s) based on what you've seen and use the pace maps for confirmation. Over time, you'll look at a race and be able to visualise how the race will develop. If in-play, something different starts to happen, you can trade accordingly.

[Blondie]

When Peter says it's irrelevant, and then you say "It seems to affect a pre off trade". Don't you stop to think who's right?

As a beginner if Peter said jump, all I thought was how high.

Are you for real?

1. It may help if 'Peter's' post was SIGNED by 'Peter'.
2. He replied "In-play style is irrelevant for pre-off trading." - The word 'style' made me think I didnt word my question right and maybe was mixing pre off and in play. I just clarified the question politely and he didn't seem to take any offence
3. After i replied 'Peter' replied saying "These are not the ways to look for front runners. You should be referring to likely pace charts.". Seems he got what i meant second time and told me where to look. Exactly what I was after. Thank you PETER.
4. Peter is the Grand Master of pre off trading as far as I am concerned. But he doesn't seem the kind of arrogant guy who would be offended by someone clarifying a question when they think they might have given wrong impression. If he was offended I would apologise. FWIW He doesnt strike me as someone who craves having his ego stroked just for the sake of it either.

I saw with my own eyes two markets where an outsider got megamoney piling on and i wasnt watching that ladder. It spoiled an otherwise nice move i was on. i checked and it was a strong front runner so i thought if i had a few of these strong ones noted down I could watch out next time if something doesht make sense because that might explain things for me better. I think thats totally reasonable.

[Blondie]

When Peter says it's irrelevant, and then you say "It seems to affect a pre off trade". Don't you stop to think who's right?

As a beginner if Peter said jump, all I thought was how high.

OP isn’t wrong though is he? Front runners affect pre off trades almost daily over the sticks when they line up prominently and steam on the ladders in the final 30 seconds. I’d be interested to know if Peter would actively take up a lay position if he saw this unfolding, if not I’d assume it’s not irrelevant.

Usually, 30 seconds before the off is when the experienced traders are exiting their trades.

The DOB or FR information, with practice, can be identified overnight using pace maps (free) on ATR as Peter said.

https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Wol ... -2025/2030



8.30 Wolv 5f.png


The pace forecast (arrowed) , in this race could be weak, so it's possible, the likely pace setter (Next Second @22/1) might lead, but something else may adopt different tactics before/during the race and become the front runner.

The unknown, is, what are connections intentions in the race? I've seen hold up types with no FR history, try new tactics from the front and jockeys given the nod to hold up a normal front runner in behind a wall of horses, maybe on purpose.

I'd say it's worthwhile producing your own list(s) based on what you've seen and use the pace maps for confirmation. Over time, you'll look at a race and be able to visualise how the race will develop. If in-play, something different starts to happen, you can trade accordingly.

Very useful that thanks.
when you said "Usually, 30 seconds before the off is when the experienced traders are exiting their trades." - i take it you mean pre off traders?

[Euler]

Very useful that thanks.
when you said "Usually, 30 seconds before the off is when the experienced traders are exiting their trades." - i take it you mean pre off traders?

Pre-off traders should be out well before the start, especially on NH racing. So where the position of the front runner is, is an irrelevance.

I've actually studied the start of races and while people like to nip a few quid on the front runner at the start of the race. On a NH race this is soon lost in the noise of the race itself. Part of this is because the actually start of a NH race, isn't easily definable.

[wearthefoxhat]

OP isn’t wrong though is he? Front runners affect pre off trades almost daily over the sticks when they line up prominently and steam on the ladders in the final 30 seconds. I’d be interested to know if Peter would actively take up a lay position if he saw this unfolding, if not I’d assume it’s not irrelevant.

Usually, 30 seconds before the off is when the experienced traders are exiting their trades.

The DOB or FR information, with practice, can be identified overnight using pace maps (free) on ATR as Peter said.

https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Wol ... -2025/2030



8.30 Wolv 5f.png


The pace forecast (arrowed) , in this race could be weak, so it's possible, the likely pace setter (Next Second @22/1) might lead, but something else may adopt different tactics before/during the race and become the front runner.

The unknown, is, what are connections intentions in the race? I've seen hold up types with no FR history, try new tactics from the front and jockeys given the nod to hold up a normal front runner in behind a wall of horses, maybe on purpose.

I'd say it's worthwhile producing your own list(s) based on what you've seen and use the pace maps for confirmation. Over time, you'll look at a race and be able to visualise how the race will develop. If in-play, something different starts to happen, you can trade accordingly.

Very useful that thanks.
when you said "Usually, 30 seconds before the off is when the experienced traders are exiting their trades." - i take it you mean pre off traders?

Yep, pre-off traders and some automated bots too.

If it's a busy day, where the start times are near to each other, then maybe earlier, so they can get set for the upcoming race.

[ShaunWhite]

Pre-off traders should be out well before the start, especially on NH racing. So where the position of the front runner is, is an irrelevance.

I don't think this can be any clearer.

[Blondie]

Very useful that thanks.
when you said "Usually, 30 seconds before the off is when the experienced traders are exiting their trades." - i take it you mean pre off traders?

Pre-off traders should be out well before the start, especially on NH racing. So where the position of the front runner is, is an irrelevance.

I've actually studied the start of races and while people like to nip a few quid on the front runner at the start of the race. On a NH race this is soon lost in the noise of the race itself. Part of this is because the actually start of a NH race, isn't easily definable.

thank you. Just to make sure I understand, by NH you mean any race with jumps, and probably actually mean any race with a starter tape rather than stalls?

"Pre-off traders should be out well before the start" - This is not completely news to me, but it is a little bit. I've seen BA videos which discuss the importance of not trading through the 2 minute mark. I am trying to practice some discipline (which is hard!) on closing any position I open earlier, by 2:20 or so. But sometimes the move is strong and i stay in, other times it whips back around on me and I wish I stuck to the rule!

I was under the impression that pro pre off traders traded right up to the off or near it anyway. I think I saw videos which talk about how the money dries up around 30 seconds after post time so i thought it was ok to trade up til then if have TV coverage to check they are not just about to run.

Sounds like I should stick to trading before 2 minutes from post time, or at least if i do trade after that make sure i am out by off TIME, rather than the actual OFF! It was actually that late period I was trading when i noticed some big moves on a couple of front runners lining up at front. I thought that was where many pre off traders made their money! Looks like i was wrong - thanks for helping me fix that! I will also cancel the idea of trying to grab some profit from those late moves. To be honest it didn't feel very 'safe' to be doing.

One thing I think i have learned recently due to me being so focussed on charts is that they are useful up until the tv coverage shows the horses. After that the charts seem to have ZERO use at all! And logically that makes sense of course.

[Dublin_Flyer]

Part of this is because the actually start of a NH race, isn't easily definable.

It can be even less definable depending on the starter or their mood. I remember watching one of the big 2, either Chelt or Aintree a couple of years ago and the starter on the day pulled them back a load of times for false starts/one trotting not walking/1 sideways etc.

Your frontrunner could be lined up for a great start with clear grass ahead, then have a false start and only end up in midfield when the "real" race starts.