UK General Election 2029 - Trading ONLY thread

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
sionascaig
Posts: 1517
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Michael5482 wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2024 2:54 pm
I think Reform are beyond a protest vote now they are big player no question about it.
Yes. I think, for now at least, they have genuine supporters and could continue to benefit from the protest votes come an election.

Local councils in England are next up in May, so hopefully some market movements in the runup to that.

One thing to mind is that the Conservatives had to deal with 3 black swan(ish) events: Brexit, Covid & a war in Europe. As well as inheriting power during a financial crisis. It's unlikely labour will have to deal with so much uncertainty so there is still a chance for them to better everyone's very low expectations!

Reform have just expelled a regional organiser in Scotland (he was the son of a UVF commander & his uncle had murdered a 15yo, because he was a Celtic supporter). Wouldn't be surprised to see more of this (chucking out the party that is)...
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

sionascaig wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2024 3:57 pm
Michael5482 wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2024 2:54 pm
I think Reform are beyond a protest vote now they are big player no question about it.
Yes. I think, for now at least, they have genuine supporters and could continue to benefit from the protest votes come an election.

Local councils in England are next up in May, so hopefully some market movements in the runup to that.

One thing to mind is that the Conservatives had to deal with 3 black swan(ish) events: Brexit, Covid & a war in Europe. As well as inheriting power during a financial crisis. It's unlikely labour will have to deal with so much uncertainty so there is still a chance for them to better everyone's very low expectations!

Reform have just expelled a regional organiser in Scotland (he was the son of a UVF commander & his uncle had murdered a 15yo, because he was a Celtic supporter). Wouldn't be surprised to see more of this (chucking out the party that is)...
Labour were hinting that many local elections next May might not take place due to changes they are bringing in for regional authorities. They could be delayed for 12 months.

Personally, I think Labour are shitting themselves because of internal analysis of Reform UK’s progress and the fact that Donald’s camp have said Mandelson is a moron. Like I said, Trump is going to punish Labour after January for comments many of them made against him. Plus Musk is now on the warpath against Labour etc.
Vaz0202
Posts: 184
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:53 pm

Is anyone else deeply concerned that a Farage government will have no experience whatsoever on the front benches? I don’t even think Lee Anderson had a role in the cabinet.

What will the calibre be of these 326+ MP’s?

Let’s be honest, when they were fielding candidates last time it was a shambles. It is understood they paid an outside firm to vet and they failed.
Vaz0202
Posts: 184
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:53 pm

Archery1969 wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2024 7:47 pm
sionascaig wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2024 3:57 pm
Michael5482 wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2024 2:54 pm
I think Reform are beyond a protest vote now they are big player no question about it.
Yes. I think, for now at least, they have genuine supporters and could continue to benefit from the protest votes come an election.

Local councils in England are next up in May, so hopefully some market movements in the runup to that.

One thing to mind is that the Conservatives had to deal with 3 black swan(ish) events: Brexit, Covid & a war in Europe. As well as inheriting power during a financial crisis. It's unlikely labour will have to deal with so much uncertainty so there is still a chance for them to better everyone's very low expectations!

Reform have just expelled a regional organiser in Scotland (he was the son of a UVF commander & his uncle had murdered a 15yo, because he was a Celtic supporter). Wouldn't be surprised to see more of this (chucking out the party that is)...


Personally, I think Labour are shitting themselves because of internal analysis of Reform UK’s progress and the fact that Donald’s camp have said Mandelson is a moron. Like I said, Trump is going to punish Labour after January for comments many of them made against him. Plus Musk is now on the warpath against Labour etc.

Trump forgiven both Musk and JD Vance for previous comments. He loves nothing more than a repented sinner..pending there is something that will benefit him 1) loyalty 2) connections 3) trade
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

Vaz0202 wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2024 8:34 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2024 7:47 pm
sionascaig wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2024 3:57 pm


Yes. I think, for now at least, they have genuine supporters and could continue to benefit from the protest votes come an election.

Local councils in England are next up in May, so hopefully some market movements in the runup to that.

One thing to mind is that the Conservatives had to deal with 3 black swan(ish) events: Brexit, Covid & a war in Europe. As well as inheriting power during a financial crisis. It's unlikely labour will have to deal with so much uncertainty so there is still a chance for them to better everyone's very low expectations!

Reform have just expelled a regional organiser in Scotland (he was the son of a UVF commander & his uncle had murdered a 15yo, because he was a Celtic supporter). Wouldn't be surprised to see more of this (chucking out the party that is)...


Personally, I think Labour are shitting themselves because of internal analysis of Reform UK’s progress and the fact that Donald’s camp have said Mandelson is a moron. Like I said, Trump is going to punish Labour after January for comments many of them made against him. Plus Musk is now on the warpath against Labour etc.

Trump forgiven both Musk and JD Vance for previous comments. He loves nothing more than a repented sinner..pending there is something that will benefit him 1) loyalty 2) connections 3) trade
i disagree, Trump is going to screw Starmer and the Labour party. Especially on your last point being Trade. The UK/US trade deal is currently worth £305 billion jointly, even a full open trade deal would only be worth an extra £5 Billion between the two. Starmer and Labour will need to suck up or turn to the EU.

Trump will go after the EU, they will impose counter import tariff's, the UK will be stuck in the middle. If it doesn't impose tariff's on the US then the EU could well impose tariff's on the UK as further punishment after brexit and for siding with the US.
sionascaig
Posts: 1517
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Trying to reconcile this:

Screenshot 2024-12-28 174806.png

with this:

Screenshot 2024-12-28 175004.png


If Farage is fav, then surely Reform must have won more seats than the Cons at next election which contradicts the Most Seats Won market which has Reform in 3rd place.

Or

Stammer continues for another term (but may be replaced by another labour MP before next again election), however Labour will be toast come that election and Farage (if still there) will beat the Cons?

Which implies Cons are a lay as currently joint favs for next election..

What am I missing?

edit - ah, I'm not thinking about labour coalitions - maybe that is it...
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henbet22
Posts: 388
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:28 pm

He should be shorter as he could jump ship and hollow out the Tory party with his MUKGA cap on. Farage could be leading either if it suits him at the time.
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jamesedwards
Posts: 3467
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

sionascaig wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2024 6:03 pm
Trying to reconcile this:


Screenshot 2024-12-28 174806.png


with this:


Screenshot 2024-12-28 175004.png



If Farage is fav, then surely Reform must have won more seats than the Cons at next election which contradicts the Most Seats Won market which has Reform in 3rd place.

Or

Stammer continues for another term (but may be replaced by another labour MP before next again election), however Labour will be toast come that election and Farage (if still there) will beat the Cons?

Which implies Cons are a lay as currently joint favs for next election..

What am I missing?

edit - ah, I'm not thinking about labour coalitions - maybe that is it...
Farage is more likely than Badenoch to still be leader of their party come the election. Also Farage could end up leading the Tory party, or there could be a coalition.
sionascaig
Posts: 1517
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Screenshot 2025-01-03 103107.png

Labour still appear to be in freefall. And unclear where they will bottom out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election
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Vaz0202
Posts: 184
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:53 pm

Musk going after Trump’s pal Farage. Maybe he won’t get that Musk Money after all… This is very very odd
Michael5482
Posts: 1681
Joined: Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:11 pm

Looks like the economy is on a knife edge, I'm going to look to top up my positions.

Some might think it's a little perverse trading on a potential recession but it's the survival of the fittest and emotion should play no part in any trading decision.
sionascaig
Posts: 1517
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Screenshot 2025-02-03 194957.png
Screenshot 2025-02-03 195237.png
Long way to go but above would seem to indicate that Reform could have largest share of vote and still end up with relatively few MP's.

Can't see how 1st past the post can survive that scenario, i.e. a partly that wins popular vote ends up with 3rd or 4th most MP's.

(note: other threads for political point scoring - just posting this here for trading implications chat)
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jamesedwards
Posts: 3467
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

Reform are now ahead of Conservatives in the 'most seats' market. Farage under 4 to be next PM. Boris Johnson trading as low as 10 last week.

Hung parliament is almost a certainty IMO unless there is some party alliance or major Conservative shift to the right. Most likely we'll end up with some form of right wing Conservative/Reform coalition government.

z78.JPG
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greenmark
Posts: 6250
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

jamesedwards wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2025 12:42 pm
Reform are now ahead of Conservatives in the 'most seats' market. Farage under 4 to be next PM. Boris Johnson trading as low as 10 last week.

Hung parliament is almost a certainty IMO unless there is some party alliance or major Conservative shift to the right. Most likely we'll end up with some form of right wing Conservative/Reform coalition government.


z78.JPG
But Reform have no policies. Farage may seduce some but I think the electorate will back away from him.
ForFolksSake
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat May 11, 2024 2:51 pm

greenmark wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2025 5:41 pm
jamesedwards wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2025 12:42 pm
Reform are now ahead of Conservatives in the 'most seats' market. Farage under 4 to be next PM. Boris Johnson trading as low as 10 last week.

Hung parliament is almost a certainty IMO unless there is some party alliance or major Conservative shift to the right. Most likely we'll end up with some form of right wing Conservative/Reform coalition government.


z78.JPG
Farage may seduce some
Reform are just three per cent away from getting 169 seats in the Commons
Labour are panicking 😨
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