I traded pre-off markets quite a few years ago. I did 'ok' after a lot of trail and error. Not great and not good enough to give up real job, but definitely made some progress before work/life got in the way and I stopped. Now trying again and this dilemma is bothering me. I tried both ways and some days one is better but other days the other is better.
Is it best to analyse market and charts and then get into a position before a move - predicting it
Or is it better to do the analysis but wait for the move to actually start happening before entering?
Dilemma - Predict a move, or wait for a move?
Stage 1 - When you are learning to trade you will see things after they happen.
Stage 2 - Then you will learn why they happened
Stage 3 - Then you see them just after they happened
Stage 4 - Then you see them as they happen
Stage 5 - You are waiting for them to happen and are positioning ahead of that.
Most people learning to trade, try and start at stage 5
It does vary a little by market as in a highly volatile market it's hard to get ahead of the market. So you may jump on it as it happens.
But in other markets you can put orders in ahead of the action.
Stage 2 - Then you will learn why they happened
Stage 3 - Then you see them just after they happened
Stage 4 - Then you see them as they happen
Stage 5 - You are waiting for them to happen and are positioning ahead of that.
Most people learning to trade, try and start at stage 5
It does vary a little by market as in a highly volatile market it's hard to get ahead of the market. So you may jump on it as it happens.
But in other markets you can put orders in ahead of the action.
Thank you for that. It must be so hard on your end, knowing nothing about someone and answering what must be painfully boring questions while having no clue if they even know what the word 'market' means!Euler wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2025 5:27 pmStage 1 - When you are learning to trade you will see things after they happen.
Stage 2 - Then you will learn why they happened
Stage 3 - Then you see them just after they happened
Stage 4 - Then you see them as they happen
Stage 5 - You are waiting for them to happen and are positioning ahead of that.
Most people learning to trade, try and start at stage 5
It does vary a little by market as in a highly volatile market it's hard to get ahead of the market. So you may jump on it as it happens.
But in other markets you can put orders in ahead of the action.
Thing is, I have been through Stages 1-5 several times over many years. I do (at least did) think i knew WHY stuff happens, pressure from other runners (or lack of), book percentages/imbalance, pictures, etc. but in purest form surely the only reason why a move happens is because more people are laying than backing or vice versa!
What I was trying to get from this question was whether most of the successful traders sit and watch order flow and only move when that tells them to, or whether people still do what I learned to do years ago and take a broad view of all runners and decide 'which one will attract the money' or maybe which one is hated and should fly up the ladder.
Sounds like people do still predict a move and get in a position beforehand which is good to know. not because i want to copy that but because knowing that helps me know how much chart and other analysis to do. Keep at it in other words. Basically I just got a suspicion i was wasting my time looking at all that stuff if everyone else is ONLY looking at queued up orders.
I have stopped reading form and tipsters though for every race. takes up the first 5 minutes of my 10 minutes and even though it 'feels' like I am 'working hard' - it seems to be a complete waste of time! Lost count of how many 'naps' drifted like a log on the river wild!
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10529
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Naps and tipping line horses move early in the morning when they're published, if at all. They're not going to move later as it's just mug money that gets lost amongst the serious money.
"In its purest form surely the only reason why a move happens is because more people are laying than backing or vice versa".....it takes two to tango so layers and backers are always balanced. What moves betting markets is what moves any market, supply and demand.
Have a deep think about what you are trying to do and why.
If you have a horse trading at 2's there is a natural limit to which it will steam. If it reaches 1.50 before the off, that would be rare, but it could happen if a jockey gamble or something is going on. Whereas trading at 1.90 is very likely. So, the market has a natural shape to it; therefore, it's possible to indicate where you should exit a trade or expect a bounce.
If you have a horse trading at 2's there is a natural limit to which it will steam. If it reaches 1.50 before the off, that would be rare, but it could happen if a jockey gamble or something is going on. Whereas trading at 1.90 is very likely. So, the market has a natural shape to it; therefore, it's possible to indicate where you should exit a trade or expect a bounce.
Yes thats a nail on the head job i think.
The frustration comes partly from trying so many times in so many ways. As much as its not what I wanted to do, i find the only time i feel some sense of success is when i take a very broad view with long stops and ignore all the noise/bouncing around. I feel i can guess better than 50% of the time which way it will go. After that its a case of what you also mentioned about how far it will go/when it will bounce.
thing is i thought that approach was old school and didnt work any more, everyone goes on about order flow now and shaun said to try just playing around with that and take a few ticks here and there. I tried that and found i got it wrong everytime with some nasty losses when huge money got dumped into ladders (4 mins ish). I tried to go back to old way of broad view yesterday and did even worse. I think the problem is I am stuck between two approaches which just makes more room for 'luck' to have a role in things.
I have to say, yesterday i watched nearly every market and what i thought would happen was wrong a lot of the time. Yet over past few weeks most days i found my guesses were right more often than not. just very confusing. i think i will go back to taking longer view because i reckon the 'noise' is whats hurting me. i am jumping in and out and youve said on many videos how thats bad news. talk about being bulled in/out of market - yesterday i had my head stamped on, over and over!
Ignore the first market of the day as that's the hardest. But group the rest around race type and favourite odds and it will start to make more sense.
Most days nothing interesting happens, it just the same style. But alway be on the lookout for something developing over the day as that could change a lot of things.
Most days nothing interesting happens, it just the same style. But alway be on the lookout for something developing over the day as that could change a lot of things.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10529
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
How long did you practice for? Any radical change of approach will probably take at least a month or two to bed in and there shouldn't be too many nasty losses on practice stakes. On the bright side getting it wrong every time is better than it being random.
But you said you'd been doing this on and off for years so nothing I've said there will be news.
Some things you've said are definitely news. But yes generally i have heard most of the things people say. the thing is i think much of what i have learned is probvably not relevant any more and may actually be hurting me.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2025 1:12 pmHow long did you practice for? Any radical change of approach will probably take at least a month or two to bed in and there shouldn't be too many nasty losses on practice stakes.
But you said you'd been doing this on and off for years so nothing I've said there will be news.
For example my approach to markets is ingrained from years ago. look at charts, decided what the whole market is doing and which one will move. usually focussed on favourite of course but not always.
I am not sure thats the right approach any more.
lots of other confusions like PW recent videos which interestingly say to get out at 2 mins if already in a trade. this makes sense in some ways but most of the older videos show trades open before and taken right to the off. not sure if this is for experience people only, or just old stuff that shouldnt be done any more. Its not PWs fault the markets have changed so much so totally understandable that much of the old videos are not necessarily relevant today. but on other hand i like watching them as they just give off a professional tone that seems to help my mental approach even if the market dynamics stuff isnt relevant now.
Apart from the technicals of trading profitable, half of my problem is psycho stuff. always has been and maybe always will be. chasing losses, angry revenge trading after a whuipsaw etc etc. i do feel slightlybetter with this stuff now, but slighgtly isnt enough!
I wish I could just sit and watch an hour or two of a professional trading, ideally a recording so i could go back and see what i would have done and how it was probably the opposite and i might spot where i am going wrong!
hardest part is i had a few days a little while ago, by that i mean weeks, where i felt confident and picked moves well. maybe 7 out of ten correctly. last few days it seems every decision i make is wrong and markets have kicked me extra hard for those mistakes with some big swings that i wonder if anyone couldve seen coming!
"On the bright side getting it wrong every time is better than it being random." - that is funny but useful thx!
forgot to say - i do wonder if one of the things i might be doing wrong is focussing so heavily on all the runners. my mind wants to see loads of evidence for any movement of favourite - charts based mostly. so i will look and if i see 2nd and 3rd favourites look strong, i will lay or think about laying favourite predicting a reaction. this used to work much better than it seems to be working now. either that or my reading just isn't as good
You approach is too broad, you need to look at one specific tactic and practice on doing that well in the right market.
Trying to predict everything that is happening is difficult. So it's better to have some plug and play strategies and look for markets that fit the entry criteria.
Trying to predict everything that is happening is difficult. So it's better to have some plug and play strategies and look for markets that fit the entry criteria.