Afternoon dogs are a graveyard for some reason

[rik]

for me also over last 15k markets 11-2pm much better results than 2-5pm not sure why, might be less manual betting and slightly less liqudity as most poeple focus on the horse racing from 2-5pm

[ilovepizza82]

Hey marketraisen

I have a rather successful lay strategy for the dogs...

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Green column is successful lays... red is a loss

And the middle column is PROFIT at ~£2 stakes...

Those 2 losing days you see were both as a result of afternoon races going tits up

Maybe if you had not layed dogs higher than @10.0 it wouldnt have gone "tits up".
Not sure if any strat that involoves laying dogs, horses, anything really @10.0 and higher could be called "successful" in long term. : )

[Fugazi]

Anyone noticed changes since 2020? I need to analyse my data but just from when I flick through markets seems the evenings are more profitable as theres a lot of punters vs daytime which is mostly bots

[ShaunWhite]

If you sort your bet history by time of day (exc date) and plot the cumulative pl then the slope should tell the story of when is best.

Biggest change since 2020 is that the volume has halved.

[Fugazi]

If you sort your bet history by time of day (exc date) and plot the cumulative pl then the slope should tell the story of when is best.

Biggest change since 2020 is that the volume has halved.

Thats much simpler than how I was going to do it

[ANGELS15]

Betfair seem to have suspended the 3.38 Monmore a few minutes after the race ended. I had the winner so don't know if I'll be paid out or they'll void it.

[ANGELS15]

They paid out so I'm guessing they voided any bets placed after the off as live odds continued to be shown after the race had finished.

[ShaunWhite]

Thats much simpler than how I was going to do it

Sort it by anything and everything you can think of, and supplement it with market info to sort by too. It's the best resource you have and some people don't even download it.

The eye opener is then they see the pl is the same even if you don't group bets by market, every bet is just a bet, so all the usual ev rules apply even if you're 'trading'.

[Fugazi]

Thats much simpler than how I was going to do it

Sort it by anything and everything you can think of, and supplement it with market info to sort by too. It's the best resource you have and some people don't even download it.

The eye opener is then they see the pl is the same even if you don't group bets by market, every bet is just a bet, so all the usual ev rules apply even if you're 'trading'.

Mindblown.

This explains so much to me now. Sample size 6000, fairly even spread of bets except 1000 and 2200 at around 100 bets each.

output (6).png

[LinusP]

Thats much simpler than how I was going to do it

Sort it by anything and everything you can think of, and supplement it with market info to sort by too. It's the best resource you have and some people don't even download it.

The eye opener is then they see the pl is the same even if you don't group bets by market, every bet is just a bet, so all the usual ev rules apply even if you're 'trading'.

Mindblown.

This explains so much to me now. Sample size 6000, fairly even spread of bets except 1000 and 2200 at around 100 bets each. output (6).png

Does it? That looks completely random.

[Fugazi]

Sort it by anything and everything you can think of, and supplement it with market info to sort by too. It's the best resource you have and some people don't even download it.

The eye opener is then they see the pl is the same even if you don't group bets by market, every bet is just a bet, so all the usual ev rules apply even if you're 'trading'.

Mindblown.

This explains so much to me now. Sample size 6000, fairly even spread of bets except 1000 and 2200 at around 100 bets each. output (6).png

Does it? That looks completely random.

Human behaviour.

1600-1700 people are leaving work, (yes people bet at work lol) picking up kids/taking them to hobbies. So bots take over. Then theyre back in the seat at 1700, and winding down/ doing other things later on.

Need a much bigger sample size to confirm my hypothesis.

Edit:

Alternatively, make 1600 positive. Pretty clear pattern then. Though my hypothesis wouldn't tie in with volumes I guess as late on volumes are good.

Guess I just come back when I have a sample of 60,000

[MemphisFlash]

i don't have a problem

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[Fugazi]

i don't have a problem


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I'm always in awe you stop for the day at round numbers and cap your huge profits

Should make the most of that money tree and maximise those profits

[Naffman]

i don't have a problem


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viewtopic.php?t=30329

[LinusP]

Mindblown.

This explains so much to me now. Sample size 6000, fairly even spread of bets except 1000 and 2200 at around 100 bets each. output (6).png

Does it? That looks completely random.

Human behaviour.

1600-1700 people are leaving work, (yes people bet at work lol) picking up kids/taking them to hobbies. So bots take over. Then theyre back in the seat at 1700, and winding down/ doing other things later on.

Need a much bigger sample size to confirm my hypothesis.

Edit:

Alternatively, make 1600 positive. Pretty clear pattern then. Though my hypothesis wouldn't tie in with volumes I guess as late on volumes are good.

Guess I just come back when I have a sample of 60,000

I strongly recommend not going down this route, instead take a step back and try and understand the market better.

You want to quantify this behaviour into a signal, for example are the markets different morning/afternoon/evening due to liquidity / volatility / matching / amounts available / back or lay matching etc. If you can build a signal around this you will begin to understand the markets and then your own signals better and is very likely to take you down more 'fruitful' routes. Blindly dismissing markets due to time of day is not how you should be approaching betting.