Tracking a Simple Automation Strategy on Correct Scores

[FTAcademy]

Hey everyone,

I’ve decided to start tracking a simple automation strategy on the Correct Score market and would love to share my progress while also getting your insights along the way.

Strategy Overview
Approach: Straight backing the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 10th favorite scores (back 1 tick above best market price) in most football matches with sufficient liquidity, one hour before.
Liquidity Filter: Minimum €1,000 matched on the Correct Score market, one hour before kick-off
Liability: Fixed stake €1 per back bet, meaning a total liability of €5 per match
Reasoning: The Correct Score market on Betfair has 19 possible outcomes, but many of these are just filler. The majority of matches revolve around common, repeatable scorelines.

Why This Strategy?
Instead of spreading bets across all scorelines, this basic method focuses on backing only the most realistic outcomes while keeping things simple and one score that might be a surprise. The market is efficient and know best what are the most probable results. The idea is to test whether targeting these specific scorelines provides an edge over time. Backtesting this, profit should come on all 5 selections the least being on 1st favorite score

What to Expect
Regular updates with results and insights
Tweaks and optimizations based on performance
Open discussion for suggestions and improvements

List with things to consider soon for improvements
Back at SP if first back bet was not completed
Store values
Stake for same profit, considering that big difference in odds
Establish and exit point (e.g., if only 10 minutes left and another goal will bring us outside our CS selections, then lay bet on current CS)

Rules file attached.

Would love to hear your thoughts! Feel free to follow along, share suggestions, or even test it out yourself. Let’s see how this evolves.

[FTAcademy]

These are the qualifying selections by now. Others should come later, as volumes increase. Australian match already triggered and bets are matched.

[wearthefoxhat]

Good luck with your strategy, very thorough and well planned.

IMO, the market becomes efficient, eventually, after getting knocked into shape by the combination of good and bad bets. Defining the good/value bets/trades, we can certainly exploit the market in different ways, in different markets.

[ForFolksSake]

Excellent idea

[ShaunWhite]

I can't quite see how you've address your observation that "The market is efficient".

The part about.....
"Reasoning: The Correct Score market on Betfair has 19 possible outcomes, but many of these are just filler. The majority of matches revolve around common, repeatable scorelines." sounds like the classic mistake of thinking "favs win the most so you'll win if back them"

If you can put a number on 'majority of matches' then you might stand a chance but not without it.

And the "Back at SP if first back bet was not completed", SP is just about the most efficient price point there is!

[ForFolksSake]

del

[ShaunWhite]

. Defining the good/value bets/trades

That's the only way to make money, just thinking 3-2 doesn't happen much isn't really doing that.

The 'backtest' sounds backfitted. No mention of the correlation between the data used to do the analysis and the data used to test the stragegy? If you look at a set of data it's not hard to find an edge, but it's hard to find one that then works on on unseen data, such as going live.

[ShaunWhite]

I can't quite see how you've address your observation that "The market is efficient".

If you can put a number on 'majority of matches' then you might stand a chance but not without it.

You are being very -ve.

It's a basic strategy the OP is laying out

Give it a chance, it's going to be an interesting journey I'm sure

He wanted feedback. I'm not being negative I'm suggesting what he needs to do, ie define 'majority'.

[ForFolksSake]

I can't quite see how you've address your observation that "The market is efficient".

If you can put a number on 'majority of matches' then you might stand a chance but not without it.

And the "Back at SP if first back bet was not completed", SP is just about the most efficient price point there is!

You are being very -ve.

It's a basic strategy the OP is laying out starting with five rules

Add some rules/ideas if you want to contribute

Give it a chance, it could be an interesting journey

[Atho55]

Here are the score %`s by season and the odds the %`s relate to which probably differ to 1 tick above best. Have highlighted the top 5. Premier League only

Correct Score % by Season.png

[jimibt]

Here are the score %`s by season and the odds the %`s relate to which probably differ to 1 tick above best. Have highlighted the top 5. Premier League only


Correct Score % by Season.png

so basically, the WINNERS are low score home win or 1-1 draw. no real surprises then, but good to see it confirmed/supported. the issue is of course that to play out on the day and not be one of the outlier scores, you need to be meticulous in your game selection, be that news, form or stats based...

[ForFolksSake]

Here are the score %`s by season and the odds the %`s relate to which probably differ to 1 tick above best. Have highlighted the top 5. Premier League only


Correct Score % by Season.png

Would be good if that data could be imported into SV's
Have you or anybody done anything like that.
I see that as advanced, something for later maybe.
Still very early stages yet

[ShaunWhite]

you need to be meticulous in your game selection, be that news, form or stats based...

But as soon as you're selective the stats for 'all' matches go out of the window.

[ForFolksSake]

you need to be meticulous in your game selection, be that news, form or stats based...

But as soon as you're selective the stats for 'all' matches go out of the window.

Ok, let's agree to park Atho's spreadsheet till later

Doesn't seem to be any consensus at the mo on whether it's of any use or not

Let's see what other help/suggestions come along

[ShaunWhite]

Excellent idea