Dilemma - Predict a move, or wait for a move?

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I prefer to:

Open a position predicting a move
8
50%
Wait for move to happen before entering
2
13%
Both - It varies from market to market
6
38%
 
Total votes: 16
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 10529
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Blondie wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2025 1:37 pm
Apart from the technicals of trading profitable, half of my problem is psycho stuff. always has been and maybe always will be. chasing losses, angry revenge trading after a whuipsaw etc etc. i do feel slightlybetter with this stuff now, but slighgtly isnt enough!
Catch 22, you're only doing that because you don't know you're profitable, and you won't be profitable if you keep doing that. I'd suggest automation but you don't seem into the tech.

"watch an hour or two of a professional trading, ideally a recording so i could go back and see what i would have done"..... If you watched 10 people you'd see 10 different ways to do it. Any time or thing can make money if you focus on it and nothing else, for long enough. You just need to decide what your niche will be and then tailor the information you need around that.

What's the one thing you're focusing on ? Long swings, action at round numbers, range breakouts, volatile markets, stable markets, drifters, steamers, favs, outsiders, handicaps or the under card etc etc etc ?
User avatar
Blondie
Posts: 159
Joined: Mon Dec 23, 2024 2:34 pm

Euler wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2025 2:12 pm
You approach is too broad, you need to look at one specific tactic and practice on doing that well in the right market.

Trying to predict everything that is happening is difficult. So it's better to have some plug and play strategies and look for markets that fit the entry criteria.
Thank you. Yes I've heard this a lot. The problem is:

- Partly me being in a rush to make this work or confirm i can't do it - yes I know this sounds insane objectively but thats where i am unfortunately

- Partly me being glued to old habits that are really hard to break.

As example - In my head nothing moves without others moving, so i need to see what all the ladders are doing to know about my trade idea.

I am trying to slowly inch myself away from those and try to stick my eyes to the favourite's ladder. Its very very hard thoug
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Blondie
Posts: 159
Joined: Mon Dec 23, 2024 2:34 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2025 3:34 pm
Blondie wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2025 1:37 pm
Apart from the technicals of trading profitable, half of my problem is psycho stuff. always has been and maybe always will be. chasing losses, angry revenge trading after a whuipsaw etc etc. i do feel slightlybetter with this stuff now, but slighgtly isnt enough!
Catch 22, you're only doing that because you don't know you're profitable, and you won't be profitable if you keep doing that. I'd suggest automation but you don't seem into the tech.

"watch an hour or two of a professional trading, ideally a recording so i could go back and see what i would have done"..... If you watched 10 people you'd see 10 different ways to do it. Any time or thing can make money if you focus on it and nothing else, for long enough. You just need to decide what your niche will be and then tailor the information you need around that.

What's the one thing you're focusing on ? Long swings, action at round numbers, range breakouts, volatile markets, stable markets, drifters, steamers, favs, outsiders, handicaps or the under card etc etc etc ?
Thanks, some good stuff there.

" I'd suggest automation but you don't seem into the tech." - I am learning slowly, have made some servants, basic ones. I must admit i have often wondered about automation mainly because it removes ME from the equation! by that i mean my flaws/mistakes. The reason I like the idea of it is because i THINK more often than not when I take a broad longer position (meaning ten ticks in either direction, one to my last exit the other to my stop exit) i get it right more often than not.

The problems come when:

- I get it wrong, so I see that hapening and exit before my stop loss trying to cut losses when its clear its gone wrong. Then i jump in in a split second to either trade the other way or get back into the first idea. I know this is stupid but the time I realise i am doing it its already done! sometimes 3 or 4 times and a big scary red is the outcome.

- I try to add to position (greed) and get in a mess with stakes which obviously moves my original red/green balance. Again just stupid in cold light of day

- I try to scalp on the way up./down, scalping is something i did a lot in years gone by. kind of hooked on it!

All of these equal bad discipline. Doing everything I can to improve, and i do think I am improving. but not fast enuogh.

I am wondering if I can make some servants to basically do what I intend to do when i open a trade. Fixed exits, fixed stop loss, let it play out. When I do that manually it goes quite well most of the time. with servants it should remove me, so long as i keep my hands off!

one of the common problems I am having lately is that if i aim for a ten tick move and it looks like only going say 4-6 ticks (quite often), i hjave to manually exit so not sure how servants could deal with that.

"What's the one thing you're focusing on ?" - I hate to say it but i have to answer honestly - all of those! not all in one race obviously, I am not THAT stupid :D

Mostly I am looking at market. If its a handicap i am trying to focus on 5 tick moves instead of 10 and thats going a bit better. that might be inside a range, or it mighgt be a breakout. I will scalp a tick here and there on stable markets while watching for breakouts. I might catch a big move on a wild maiden - I probably get burned more often on those though.

I understand i really must simplify things and pick one. I just really struggle to not bloody click on every market. I am finding a reason to trade all the time instead of trying to find only the best. I know the theory and why what I am doing is so wrong but i seem unable to resist a click. its like my mind can always find a reason, i am not guessing, there is always a reason but they are usually not strong enough to trade. I need to wear some sort of auto shock device and connect that to the automation somehow so if my criteria are not present when i click,, i get 40,000 volts. that might work. :D
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 10529
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

It all sounds very familiar, especially the hopping around to try and find something easier when one approach hasn't worked reasonably quickly.

Record keeping is key to progress, no matter where your RoI starts if you can measure a 0.1% improvement each week then one day it'll tip over, it can't not. And with a precious weekly stat to protect the inclination to go on tilt about one bad result diminishes, a little.

Automation is just as hard, I think perhaps a bit harder (I've been 100% automated for about 6 years). You need to like the tech, not just the basic BA stuff but all the data too.

Niche-wise I used to find the time between scheduled start and actual start was fun, moves rarely had the time to retrace and plenty of traders desperate to bin a position after they'd hung on too long waiting for it to comeback. Sure you can't trade 4 figure stakes or you struggle to get out but that's not a big deal unless you're a big shot.

Imo if you just do what everyone else does or suggests you're in really yellow snow. I just tried to pick anything I hadn't seen mentioned because you're not competing with a nebulous 'market' it's vs people. I didn't fancy being head to head with the gurus 5 mins out because any situation can only yield so much, and my chances of a slice of that was slim to none. There's no lower league in trading so it's hard to get a foothold, hence cracking your own little niche first.
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Blondie
Posts: 159
Joined: Mon Dec 23, 2024 2:34 pm

That post oozes 'experience'! Thanks a lot.

record keeping - how is best to go about that? I saw you can buy a spreadsheet from a blog somewhere that shows results broken down in detail which looks very useful.

Automation - bit embarassed to say i didn't really think anyone used that at all, not horse racing anyway! I thought it was a clever part of BA that was maybe added to satisfy football betters or something. Quite fascinated by the idea of automating stuff. to hear someone experienced say 'i am 100% automated' is mind blowing for me!

Finding something that nobody else is doing sounds interesting but beyond me. I haven't a clue what they are doing never mind not! :D but i do sort of get your point, competition in something already bloody hard isnt exactly a good thing!

I may just need many more hundreds/thousands of hours of practice. And as for that period between post time and the off - you wont catch me DEAD in there after recent attempts! Its like a yoyo!
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Blondie
Posts: 159
Joined: Mon Dec 23, 2024 2:34 pm

Ok time for an official TANTRUM!
Just at my wits end, glad there were no razor blades on my desk!
I just have no clue how people do this. Everything seems so completely bloody random!
The SECOND I enter it instantly shoots the other way, over and over and over again. Its as if someone is watching me, I need to check there are no naughty trojan files downloaded from this forum :D
Just beyond belief how random it seems. I have to believe its in my head, because some days I seem to feel comfortable with taking positions and waiting for them to work out, or exiting. but when i have 5-10 in a row where the seconid i click they dive the other way, i just have to stop before i break something. The 2 min mark explains SOME of them, but not all.
Despair! Not sure how many times i can go back to the drawing board, there must be a limit. there damn well should be! its like a sneaky bear trap, occasionally you have days where you feel you've made progress, then one day smashes it all to pieces and you feel like a total loser wondering if you were deluding yourself all along.
GRRRR!

PS - I am still stuck between the two ways of looking at any chart.
If favourite has come in all day gradually, that means 'strong' to me so in old days I would expect that support to continue when themoney arrives. And of course, SOMETIMES it f****g does! but not always, which makes it seem random and i either can't touch anything or i just have to try on every race and see where i end up.
So favourite starts bouncing off 2 after looking supported all day. I think 'its strong, they like this horse', but then my split personality says 'or maybe its found its bottom and will turn the other way when money turns up'. If i go with 'strong', it does that. but if i lay it off that 'support', it just crashes through leaving me wondering how anyone chooses between these two ideas!
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 10529
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Blondie wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2025 3:59 pm
I just have no clue how people do this.!
Sounds like learning to play the guitar.

Is there any special reason you want to do pre-race horseracing?
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 10529
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Blondie wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2025 2:02 pm

record keeping - how is best to go about that?

Automation - bit embarassed to say i didn't really think anyone used that at all, not horse racing anyway! I thought it was a clever part of BA that was maybe added to satisfy football betters or something. Quite fascinated by the idea of automating stuff. to hear someone experienced say 'i am 100% automated' is mind blowing for me!
Record keeping, you can download your bet history but you'll need some Excel to analyse it, the problem with most results spreadsheets you see is that it's just market totals not the bets that gave rise to it. A basic PL/stake turned turnover (RoI) will give you a personal guide although comparisons between people won't work as its very dependant on your method.

Auto, yes nearly 7yrs now but lots of people have done it for nearly two decades. I mostly do UK and Aus, dogs and horses, 247,365. Although lots of people use Guardian profitably, I don't, if you specialise then bespoke software is the usual route. Then you can record the Betfair data stream and run simulations, machine learning etc.

It's more than just a novelty thing, the top guys make 7 figures although that's exceptional. And then there's the premier league with syndicates like Castella Research alleged to make 12m+ (wiki Daniel Lightwing) or Starlizard led by Tony Bloom (billionaire Brighton fc owner).
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Euler
Posts: 26458
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

Blondie wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2025 3:59 pm
Ok time for an official TANTRUM!
Just at my wits end, glad there were no razor blades on my desk!
I just have no clue how people do this. Everything seems so completely bloody random!
The SECOND I enter it instantly shoots the other way, over and over and over again. Its as if someone is watching me, I need to check there are no naughty trojan files downloaded from this forum :D

https://youtu.be/ZlmMKrqFz8g
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Blondie
Posts: 159
Joined: Mon Dec 23, 2024 2:34 pm

I got a notification of a reply from 'Fugazi' but can't see one?
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