Football Musings

[andy28]

Been messing with my models and just added the ZIP poisson, most struggle but they have their day but still overall they are break even, so I applied the wisdom of the crowd and averaged them all and it appears to be working, only 46 games however. Also not sure if this is a scientific way to do this, also maybe it is down to a lack of draws in the EPL, this could make any system profitable

[TupleVision]

Been messing with my models and just added the ZIP poisson, most struggle but they have their day but still overall they are break even, so I applied the wisdom of the crowd and averaged them all...

Sorry, what does this bit mean?

[andy28]

The concept here is similar to the classic example of estimating jelly beans in a jar, if you ask 20,000 people and take the average of their guesses, you'll likely be very close to the actual number. By averaging the predictions from various models, I capture a broader perspective and minimize individual biases or errors. Whether or not it works long term I have no idea, but worth a look

[wearthefoxhat]

Been messing with my models and just added the ZIP poisson, most struggle but they have their day but still overall they are break even, so I applied the wisdom of the crowd and averaged them all and it appears to be working, only 46 games however. Also not sure if this is a scientific way to do this, also maybe it is down to a lack of draws in the EPL, this could make any system profitable

The English Premier is slightly below average for the draws when comparing other leagues, this season, but above average over the last few years.

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[wearthefoxhat]

Good day on the outright value-betting approach. Stake pts: 80.30 Profit: + 45.50

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Close effort on the Super 6 scores, using the correct score rankings within the excel sheet!

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[Kai]

[andy28]

I have been following this thread with interest and I looked at your value bets for the EPL and I only had 5 and they were the same as yours. So I am happy with that, the only one I have left is Newcastle currently for me is value. There is no value in City v Liverpool match but City will be if they get to 3.25

[wearthefoxhat]

I have been following this thread with interest and I looked at your value bets for the EPL and I only had 5 and they were the same as yours. So I am happy with that, the only one I have left is Newcastle currently for me is value. There is no value in City v Liverpool match but City will be if they get to 3.25

Well done. Encouraging to hear that both our Zip models are about right.

I only posted the results where the qualifying teams finished their games. Aston Villa - Home Win @ 2.66 for 1.30 pts staked, was another one.

With the value-driven approach, it does throw up predictions that appear not to be in-line with public thinking, but that's where the edge will be in the long-term.

Here's a SWOT analysis that I've been working through. With the assistance of GPT, I've covered most of the areas listed and can see where it might end up. The bigger leagues have more up to-date information about transfers and players, fortunately, there's plenty of news sources out there.

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[andy28]

With the threat looming of Betfair being illegal here part of my model runs against the only Bookmaker we have and to be fair it is showing a profit there as well. Much fewer matches to choose from but to make a profit against 108% is encouraging.

[walshy]

With the threat looming of Betfair being illegal here part of my model runs against the only Bookmaker we have and to be fair it is showing a profit there as well. Much fewer matches to choose from but to make a profit against 108% is encouraging.

Hi Andy28,

Is there a threat of Betfair being made illegal in Rep of Ireland? I haven't seen anything about that and I could well be moving there in the not too distant. If so how likely do you think it is?

[wearthefoxhat]

With the threat looming of Betfair being illegal here part of my model runs against the only Bookmaker we have and to be fair it is showing a profit there as well. Much fewer matches to choose from but to make a profit against 108% is encouraging.

Hi Andy28,

Is there a threat of Betfair being made illegal in Rep of Ireland? I haven't seen anything about that and I could well be moving there in the not too distant. If so how likely do you think it is?

Andy's over in New Zealand. Wexford, Canterbury.


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[walshy]

Ahh Ok Thanks for that, I did do a brief google to see if there was another Wexford, obviously didnt look hard enough!

Hope it doesnt come to that in NZ for him though, sounds pretty tough!

[Kai]

With the threat looming of Betfair being illegal here part of my model runs against the only Bookmaker we have and to be fair it is showing a profit there as well. Much fewer matches to choose from but to make a profit against 108% is encouraging.

Hi Andy28,

Is there a threat of Betfair being made illegal in Rep of Ireland?

Isn't that the one country where that's basically impossible, even more so than England?

[walshy]

I dont know about impossible but I would be extremely surprised if it was even being suggested, it was just the Andy28's location being Wexford that got me confused. Unfortunatley due to my own ignorance, I wasnt aware of a Wexford in NZ

[wearthefoxhat]

the only one I have left is Newcastle currently for me is value.

Another one in the bag, well done. (Wasn't on my sheet, as the tissue odds were similar to the market pre-off)