lay fav at BSP and green up inplay

[Rexnkat2.]

I’ve been struggling with this for a week. I want to lay the favourite just before the race starts and green up in play for 15 ticks. I read one post where it said set the trigger three or more times. But I don’t know what I’m doing do I set this up In General, parameters or Conditions. any help would be appreciated.

[Rexnkat2.]

I’ve been struggling with this for a week. I want to lay the favourite just before the race starts and green up in play for 15 ticks. I read one post where it said set the trigger three or more times. But I don’t know what I’m doing do I set this up In General, parameters or Conditions. any help would be appreciated.

[Dallas]

Are you taking the best price with your lay bet so its matched straight away
Or offering it at a price currently away from the best price with the intention of matching it in-play?

[Rexnkat2.]

Hi Dallas
My idea was to lay a favourite with a slow pace Just before the start of the race and put a back bet inplay for 15 ticks and green up. If possible also to The put a stop loss of 15 ticks if it goes against me.

[Rexnkat2.]

Sorry, reread your post whatrever odds are on offer just before the start of the race.

[ShaunWhite]

Seems like time to post a response from GPT I had when I was shooting the breeze about the futility of stop losses.....

A stop loss isn't a magic fix—it’s just another bet, and if it’s not placed at an EV-positive level, it’s just locking in losses. The idea that you can turn a negative expectation strategy into a winning one just by adding a stop loss is a classic gambler’s fallacy.

[Rexnkat2.]

Hi Shaun Thanks for your reply, I know it’s a Losing bet I thought It would stop me losing all of my stake if applied.

[Dallas]

Sorry, reread your post whatrever odds are on offer just before the start of the race.

There's a number of ways you can actually do this, maybe post up your file as it is so I or someone can advise the easiest way to make the changes required

[ShaunWhite]

Hi Shaun Thanks for your reply, I know it’s a Losing bet I thought It would stop me losing all of my stake if applied.

It will, but if you need to spend money to get out of a hole then reconsider your staking. The 'trading' mindset encourages over-staking and people not being able to afford to make the sensible decision.

It's easy to lose more on the stop than you're earning with the open..... And if your opening bet is value, question the need to have a second bet that probably isn't. A tenner that makes money is obv better than 100 that doesn't.

[jamesedwards]

Hi Shaun Thanks for your reply, I know it’s a Losing bet I thought It would stop me losing all of my stake if applied.

It will, but if you need to spend money to get out of a hole then reconsider your staking. The 'trading' mindset encourages over-staking and people not being able to afford to make the sensible decision.

It's easy to lose more on the stop than you're earning with the open..... And if your opening bet is value, question the need to have a second bet that probably isn't. A tenner that makes money is obv better than 100 that doesn't.

wisdom ↑↑↑

Every time you exit without an edge you're giving away expected value due to the spread. Much better long term to reduce initial stake and let it ride, rather than trade out.

[Rexnkat2.]

Sorry, reread your post whatrever odds are on offer just before the start of the race.

There's a number of ways you can actually do this, maybe post up your file as it is so I or someone can advise the easiest way to make the changes required

I hope these photo's show, my set up sometimes it lays (not all the time) but as never placed the back bet or green up I obviously don't know what I'm doing. https://imgur.com/a/HgU0IiF https://imgur.com/a/GzFkpvn
I apologise for the Imgur photos They are full of advertisements. They do show what I’ve done in my set up. I tried using the snippet tool, but couldn’t get to work.

[Rexnkat2.]

Hi Shaun Thanks for your reply, I know it’s a Losing bet I thought It would stop me losing all of my stake if applied.

It will, but if you need to spend money to get out of a hole then reconsider your staking. The 'trading' mindset encourages over-staking and people not being able to afford to make the sensible decision.

It's easy to lose more on the stop than you're earning with the open..... And if your opening bet is value, question the need to have a second bet that probably isn't. A tenner that makes money is obv better than 100 that doesn't.

wisdom ↑↑↑

Every time you exit without an edge you're giving away expected value due to the spread. Much better long term to reduce initial stake and let it ride, rather than trade out.

As a newbie, I appreciate All of you taking the time out To answer my Question. And like most newbies I’ve watched loads of videos by Peter Webb and Cann I’ve seen them using hundred pound stakes When trading losing £6to£8 plus they just move onto the next race. I know losing is inevitable they are taking a lost to save £100 stake. Is this not a form of stop loss? No way I am questioning Your knowledge and expertise I know you’ve all been Trading years I’m just confused with the stop loss.

[Dallas]

Sorry, reread your post whatrever odds are on offer just before the start of the race.

There's a number of ways you can actually do this, maybe post up your file as it is so I or someone can advise the easiest way to make the changes required

I hope these photo's show, my set up sometimes it lays (not all the time) but as never placed the back bet or green up I obviously don't know what I'm doing. https://imgur.com/a/HgU0IiF https://imgur.com/a/GzFkpvn
I apologise for the Imgur photos They are full of advertisements. They do show what I’ve done in my set up. I tried using the snippet tool, but couldn’t get to work.

Try this, I've named the rules so they are self explanatory what they do
I've not tested it so run it in practice mode first just to be 100% sure it does what you want or while you make any minor changes you require

Lay and Green Up.baf

[Rexnkat2.]

Thanks Dallas Much appreciated I will give it a go today.

[ShaunWhite]

Is this not a form of stop loss?

It’s not just about having a stop-loss, it’s about the price you’re accepting when it gets triggered.

Every bet you place settles independently. So if you set a lay stop at, say, 2.5, it’s important that the horse is close to a 2.5 shot at that moment. If the true price is closer to 2.0, you’ve just taken an awful value bet. Since your profit and loss is the sum of all your individual bets, you can’t afford to keep taking poor value. It might not seem like a big deal over a few races, but across thousands of bets in a year, that slippage adds up.

Watching guys like Peter, it’s worth remembering that he’s well aware of this. He wouldn’t cut his losses unless it was still a fair bet, even if that part isn’t explicitly mentioned. And being good at reading a race, he instinctively knows a fair price from a bad one.

In simple terms, to trade sucessfully you need (Bet 1 EV + Bet 2 EV) >0
If you can place Bet 2 at a value no worse than that gained in Bet 1, the sum is still >0 and the cost might be worth the reduction in varience.
The risk is that Bet 2 is a bigger negative and the sum becomes <0 because long term you'll lose.