Back Testing Bots

[Emtaxx]

First week of data, stakes have been upped and a few extra polishes. Nice

[Mike Oxlong]

Have been enjoying this thread. I am struggling with the logic for value on lay bets - assuming you would just use 1-proba of the selection winning in the value calculation?

Edit - would need to also calculate liability in money lost also…

[Fugazi]

Have been enjoying this thread. I am struggling with the logic for value on lay bets - assuming you would just use 1-proba of the selection winning in the value calculation?

Edit - would need to also calculate liability in money lost also…

Gpt constantly messes the calculations up

Spose I will have to do some work myself

[ShaunWhite]

Gpt constantly messes the calculations up

Spose I will have to do some work myself

With code or calcs it's far better to get it roughed out first rather than giving it a blank page. Keep code fragments small and have a clear idea about the statistical methods you want it to apply. It's like employing an intern rather than a pro.

[Emtaxx]

Hi all,

Following from last weeks post, it has been another week... Since then I've doubled up on the stake size and added a few more counts too it also. Further optimising and code rework and we're now flying... Theres some things I'd still like to retune and some further structure will be required, however things are looking really good and I'd just like to say thanks to all who have helped me in such short time here. I probably wont be posting something like this again really as it seems a bit braggy and doesnt provide any constuctive advice etc, but its all still possible to do.

Next phase for me will be adding another 0 to my stakes and waiting for my 5% commison to go to 2% as I dont need to use Pin Ball in casino to build my bank lol

[jamesedwards]

Hi all,

Following from last weeks post, it has been another week... Since then I've doubled up on the stake size and added a few more counts too it also. Further optimising and code rework and we're now flying... Theres some things I'd still like to retune and some further structure will be required, however things are looking really good and I'd just like to say thanks to all who have helped me in such short time here. I probably wont be posting something like this again really as it seems a bit braggy and doesnt provide any constuctive advice etc, but its all still possible to do.

Next phase for me will be adding another 0 to my stakes and waiting for my 5% commison to go to 2% as I dont need to use Pin Ball in casino to build my bank lol

Be very careful increasing stake. It can have a dramatic effect on ev.

[ShaunWhite]

waiting for my 5% commison to go to 2%

? You just select 2% from your Rewards page anytime?

I agree with James as per usual, this time about stake size. Aside from affecting the market more than you'd think it's piles on the adverse selection factor. With £1 you either get it or you don't, but with 10 you'll always get filled on the bad ones but might only get £5 matched even when they're good offers.

[jamesedwards]

Managed to dig out this old beauty...

Impact of stake.PNG

[Emtaxx]

Thanks for your concerns guys and that's another insightful post there James. I realise its not infinitely scalable, but I'm taking such low rates atm, expect it would actually benefit me with increasing them.

It'll all be around finding the balance, I'll be gauging things daily by the metrics and see how we go. F*** around and find out as they say!

And no Shaun, unfortunately I have to wait til next month 1st... gana be losing a few 10£s... Ah well..

[jamesedwards]

Keep us informed how it's going.

[Emtaxx]

Bots revised, took me 3 hours to do. I've added in a further condition to them which limits the total amount able to be matched, as going up in stakes, I feared I'd get half matched and then be over exposed as I only had a counter before and Id dont want to lose the ratio of balance.

I'm nervous! cost of success, no one ever talks about this lol. Its a new head space for me. I need mentoring

[ShaunWhite]

Some useful crib notes I refer to.

How much of the variance in the data is explained by the model

R² Value Interpretation
≥ 0.90 Very strong relationship —the model explains almost all variance
0.75 – 0.90 Strong relationship —good explanatory power
0.50 – 0.75 Moderate relationship —some noise, but still useful
0.25 – 0.50 Weak relationship —model only explains part of the variance
≤ 0.25 Very weak or no relationship —mostly random noise

How far the observed mean is from zero, scaled by variance and sample size.

t-Statistic Interpretation
≥ 10 Extremely strong evidence —almost certain the effect is real
6 – 10 Very strong evidence —high confidence that this isn’t noise
3 – 6 Strong evidence —significant, but not bulletproof
2 – 3 Moderate evidence —likely real, but worth further validation
1 – 2 Weak evidence —could be noise or require more data
≤ 1 No real evidence —likely just random fluctuations

The probability of seeing this result if the true effect was zero.

p-value Interpretation
≤ 0.001 Extremely strong evidence against randomness —highly significant
0.001 – 0.01 Very strong evidence —unlikely due to chance
0.01 – 0.05 Strong evidence —statistically significant
0.05 – 0.10 Some evidence, but weaker —possibly real, but less convincing
0.10 – 0.20 Weak evidence —could be noise, needs more data
≥ 0.20 No real evidence of a meaningful effect —likely random