Worth of it's own thread I think.
FTSE will likely open -3.6%
The 2025 Trump Tantrum Tariff sell-off
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sionascaig
- Posts: 1605
- Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am
My investment pal reckons another 20% fall possible if tariffs stick, however it looks more like Trump wants a stream of country leaders that he can parade in front of media after they have made some concessions for a lower level..
(as evidenced by Donnie Jnrs tweet that 1st to call gets best deal, last worst)
(as evidenced by Donnie Jnrs tweet that 1st to call gets best deal, last worst)
I've got quite a few individual positions off 20% already. So I'm pretty sure if the sell off continues you will see people capitulate.
HFT's in the US will probably exaggerate the sell off short term. Bit of a black swan event that's difficult to model.
HFT's in the US will probably exaggerate the sell off short term. Bit of a black swan event that's difficult to model.
The thing I don't understand is, I realise Trump thinks he is an ace negociator and this is his ace hand, but it could cause a massive fundamental shift against the US. From a world perspective, but also from a global reverse currency perspective.
Trump officials dismiss market rout in vow to press on with punishing tariffs
JAMES POLITI — WASHINGTON
Donald Trump’s top economic officials yesterday vowed to press ahead with bruising tariffs on imports from around the world, rejecting fears of a looming recession as investors braced for new turmoil in financial markets.
Scott Bessent, US treasury secretary, and Howard Lutnick, commerce secretary, defended the ultra-protectionist trade policies as a necessary overhaul of global commerce and dismissed last week’s brutal sell-off in equity prices.
They also suggested additional levies on imports from a wide range of countries that are set to take effect on Wednesday would not be delayed. These are on top of a 10 per cent “baseline” tariff implemented on Saturday that has hit most imported goods.
“He announced it, and he wasn’t kidding. The tariffs are coming,” Lutnick told CBS, adding that there was “no postponing” the levies. “The president needs to reset global trade.”
Top US officials said that since Trump announced his new tariff plan last Wednesday, more than 50 countries had been in touch to seek negotiations. But as they left the door open to talks, they were sceptical that a succession of deals could be reached quickly that would lead to a widespread rollback.
“It’s not the kind of thing you can negotiate away in days or weeks ... we’re going to have to see what the countries offer and whether it’s believable,” Bessent told NBC.
The political pressure on Trump and his team over the tariffs has mounted rapidly. The big drop in US equities last week has caused Democrats to sharpen attacks on the administration and some Republicans have recoiled. China’s move to retaliate with its own levies on Friday further raised concerns.
But Bessent denied the economic outlook would be hit in the long term. “There doesn’t have to be a recession,” he said, and Americans would not be too disturbed by market volatility.
Lawrence Summers, a US treasury secretary under Democratic president Bill Clinton, warned “more turbulence” was likely unless Trump changed course. “Until the president recognises this is a very serious error that is likely to have very adverse consequences, I think it’s likely to make things very difficult,” he told ABC.
JAMES POLITI — WASHINGTON
Donald Trump’s top economic officials yesterday vowed to press ahead with bruising tariffs on imports from around the world, rejecting fears of a looming recession as investors braced for new turmoil in financial markets.
Scott Bessent, US treasury secretary, and Howard Lutnick, commerce secretary, defended the ultra-protectionist trade policies as a necessary overhaul of global commerce and dismissed last week’s brutal sell-off in equity prices.
They also suggested additional levies on imports from a wide range of countries that are set to take effect on Wednesday would not be delayed. These are on top of a 10 per cent “baseline” tariff implemented on Saturday that has hit most imported goods.
“He announced it, and he wasn’t kidding. The tariffs are coming,” Lutnick told CBS, adding that there was “no postponing” the levies. “The president needs to reset global trade.”
Top US officials said that since Trump announced his new tariff plan last Wednesday, more than 50 countries had been in touch to seek negotiations. But as they left the door open to talks, they were sceptical that a succession of deals could be reached quickly that would lead to a widespread rollback.
“It’s not the kind of thing you can negotiate away in days or weeks ... we’re going to have to see what the countries offer and whether it’s believable,” Bessent told NBC.
The political pressure on Trump and his team over the tariffs has mounted rapidly. The big drop in US equities last week has caused Democrats to sharpen attacks on the administration and some Republicans have recoiled. China’s move to retaliate with its own levies on Friday further raised concerns.
But Bessent denied the economic outlook would be hit in the long term. “There doesn’t have to be a recession,” he said, and Americans would not be too disturbed by market volatility.
Lawrence Summers, a US treasury secretary under Democratic president Bill Clinton, warned “more turbulence” was likely unless Trump changed course. “Until the president recognises this is a very serious error that is likely to have very adverse consequences, I think it’s likely to make things very difficult,” he told ABC.
The thing I don't understand is, for example, Apple have to import nearly everything into the US. Tarriffs will skyrocket the cost of an iPhone, to Americans.
The US has been the driver of globalisation, but seemingly has slammed the gears into reverse without notice.
The US has been the driver of globalisation, but seemingly has slammed the gears into reverse without notice.
I can't see Trump yielding. His character is to never back down so he would rather see the US economy obliterated than admit he is wrong.
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sionascaig
- Posts: 1605
- Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am
And Germany considering repatriating 1,800 tonnes of gold from America...
That will be a massive story in itself if it happens. Last time it was threatened caused massive panic amongst American officials as there appears to be an issue that far more gold is on the "market" (in America) than officially exists, i.e. if the people that think they own gold actually ask for it to be delivered then will be a bit short changed.
That will be a massive story in itself if it happens. Last time it was threatened caused massive panic amongst American officials as there appears to be an issue that far more gold is on the "market" (in America) than officially exists, i.e. if the people that think they own gold actually ask for it to be delivered then will be a bit short changed.
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ForFolksSake
- Posts: 862
- Joined: Sat May 11, 2024 2:51 pm
Oh my god, never even thought of thatsionascaig wrote: ↑Mon Apr 07, 2025 8:47 amAnd Germany considering repatriating 1,800 tonnes of gold from America...
That will be a massive story in itself if it happens. Last time it was threatened caused massive panic amongst American officials as there appears to be an issue that far more gold is on the "market" (in America) than officially exists, i.e. if the people that think they own gold actually ask for it to be delivered then will be a bit short changed.
The tariff plan to "correct" global trade imbalances seems really dumb, but could there be something more sinister at work here?
Trump has a history of using leverage, and then bankruptcy as a way out should the business struggle (as a lot of his businesses have). The US has huge government debt which needs financing, right now a large proportion of the US government debt is held by foreign entities as a natural consequence of the trade deficit. For example Japan holds around $1 Trillion of US debt.
The tariff plan is an economic attack on the foreign holders of US debt, this seems utterly bizarre, most governments will fall over backwards to be nice to the people funding their debt. So why risk alienating the people funding the government? Could this be the preparation for a US government default on debt owned by foreign holders? This would be the closest thing to a US bankruptcy that Trump could engineer. We know he loves a bankruptcy.
By targeting foreign holders of US debt he will be able to fall back on the arguments put for the tariff plans, he will not be defaulting on US holders of debt, he would be undertaking the ultimate reset of the global financial order.
The long term implications would be difficult to predict but the US would be isolated forever more, it would be an horrific market moment resulting in a global depression. It may also lead to an increase in wars and a complete breakdown in international financial law.
The alternative seems to me that individual states start to challenge the federal government, seeking to develop their own trading relationships with foreign governments and possibly leave the union. It always seemed inevitable to me that such a polarised society would eventually split apart, I did not expect the conditions for it happening would develop so quickly.
Trump has a history of using leverage, and then bankruptcy as a way out should the business struggle (as a lot of his businesses have). The US has huge government debt which needs financing, right now a large proportion of the US government debt is held by foreign entities as a natural consequence of the trade deficit. For example Japan holds around $1 Trillion of US debt.
The tariff plan is an economic attack on the foreign holders of US debt, this seems utterly bizarre, most governments will fall over backwards to be nice to the people funding their debt. So why risk alienating the people funding the government? Could this be the preparation for a US government default on debt owned by foreign holders? This would be the closest thing to a US bankruptcy that Trump could engineer. We know he loves a bankruptcy.
By targeting foreign holders of US debt he will be able to fall back on the arguments put for the tariff plans, he will not be defaulting on US holders of debt, he would be undertaking the ultimate reset of the global financial order.
The long term implications would be difficult to predict but the US would be isolated forever more, it would be an horrific market moment resulting in a global depression. It may also lead to an increase in wars and a complete breakdown in international financial law.
The alternative seems to me that individual states start to challenge the federal government, seeking to develop their own trading relationships with foreign governments and possibly leave the union. It always seemed inevitable to me that such a polarised society would eventually split apart, I did not expect the conditions for it happening would develop so quickly.
... sounding evermore like the handmaids tale and Gilead tbh...tumby wrote: ↑Mon Apr 07, 2025 10:06 amThe tariff plan to "correct" global trade imbalances seems really dumb, but could there be something more sinister at work here?
Trump has a history of using leverage, and then bankruptcy as a way out should the business struggle (as a lot of his businesses have). The US has huge government debt which needs financing, right now a large proportion of the US government debt is held by foreign entities as a natural consequence of the trade deficit. For example Japan holds around $1 Trillion of US debt.
The tariff plan is an economic attack on the foreign holders of US debt, this seems utterly bizarre, most governments will fall over backwards to be nice to the people funding their debt. So why risk alienating the people funding the government? Could this be the preparation for a US government default on debt owned by foreign holders? This would be the closest thing to a US bankruptcy that Trump could engineer. We know he loves a bankruptcy.
By targeting foreign holders of US debt he will be able to fall back on the arguments put for the tariff plans, he will not be defaulting on US holders of debt, he would be undertaking the ultimate reset of the global financial order.
The long term implications would be difficult to predict but the US would be isolated forever more, it would be an horrific market moment resulting in a global depression. It may also lead to an increase in wars and a complete breakdown in international financial law.
The alternative seems to me that individual states start to challenge the federal government, seeking to develop their own trading relationships with foreign governments and possibly leave the union. It always seemed inevitable to me that such a polarised society would eventually split apart, I did not expect the conditions for it happening would develop so quickly.
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wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3550
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Sounds a bit like a ponzi scheme..of sorts...sionascaig wrote: ↑Mon Apr 07, 2025 8:47 amAnd Germany considering repatriating 1,800 tonnes of gold from America...
That will be a massive story in itself if it happens. Last time it was threatened caused massive panic amongst American officials as there appears to be an issue that far more gold is on the "market" (in America) than officially exists, i.e. if the people that think they own gold actually ask for it to be delivered then will be a bit short changed.
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ForFolksSake
- Posts: 862
- Joined: Sat May 11, 2024 2:51 pm
Sounds like the whole lot is a 'ponzi' scheme heading for a big 'reset'