Should I always look at the favorite horse?

[Oliveira05]

Good evening! I was watching some of Peter's videos and I had a big question. He almost always trades as a favorite! Would this be the easiest way to trade pre-live?

[Fugazi]

Good evening! I was watching some of Peter's videos and I had a big question. He almost always trades as a favorite! Would this be the easiest way to trade pre-live?

Favourite has more volume so generally more frequent opportunities.

However, that doesn't mean they are the biggest opportunity.

For an extreme example , Betfair has a ceiling of 1000-1.

You could be laying horses at 1000-1 that actually have a 5000-1 chance of winning .

[ShaunWhite]

Volume, liquidy and the best indicator of market sentiment.

With more eyes on the favourite than any other, the hive mind has a greater influence. So other horses lower down the card may well move on the option on the favourite rather than necessarily the handful of people actually interested in them. Ie that larger amount of money exchanged on the favourite acts as a lever to move weaker horses supported by less money, so understand what the favourite is doing and the rest falls into place, theoretically. If you only look at outsiders you're trying to interpret an echo rather than where the sound is coming from.

There's probably more correct traderly terms to explain it but that's the basic mechanics of it.

[stueytrader]

Volume, liquidy and the best indicator of market sentiment.

With more eyes on the favourite than any other, the hive mind has a greater influence. So other horses lower down the card may well move on the option on the favourite rather than necessarily the handful of people actually interested in them. Ie that larger amount of money exchanged on the favourite acts as a lever to move weaker horses supported by less money, so understand what the favourite is doing and the rest falls into place, theoretically. If you only look at outsiders you're trying to interpret an echo rather than where the sound is coming from.

There's probably more correct traderly terms to explain it but that's the basic mechanics of it.

You have just given some really great summing up of ideas for why the favourites always feel like a special case in trading/betting so much.

It's something I've been pondering a little myself recently - I am largely a layer rather than backer in either my trading or betting, but I often find myself a bit fixating on laying favourites as initial views in any race. I've also sometimes thought this is a weakness as a bias too.

The larger 'hive mind' as you say is an interesting concept here. There are essentially more views on the favourite than on other selections.

I still need to decide how to interpret that though, more clearly - as a layer I often find there are clear falsies to exploit and clear true favourites, but the 64 million dollar question is finding them of course, pre race.

Some odd cases - favourites backed extremely short, but having very little actual substance in the race, or other favourites drifting and still cantering home. This is of course the eternal question - how money links with the actual performance of the jollie. (and for other horses too). But the specific cases of 'favourites' are something of a special case, for reasons above - the intense analysis they portray.

A subject that could be explored in some depth as a specific area of our activities and choices in trading.

One of my own current projects is to explore if my performance as a layer changes if I automatically avoid laying any favourites - simply because the largest amount of views suggest they will win. I need a far larger sample to know if this is more effective in my selection process. I also sometimes cannot resist a favourite lay, when they scream 'false'!

[Anbell]

Volume, liquidy and the best indicator of market sentiment.

With more eyes on the favourite than any other, the hive mind has a greater influence. So other horses lower down the card may well move on the option on the favourite rather than necessarily the handful of people actually interested in them. Ie that larger amount of money exchanged on the favourite acts as a lever to move weaker horses supported by less money, so understand what the favourite is doing and the rest falls into place, theoretically. If you only look at outsiders you're trying to interpret an echo rather than where the sound is coming from.

There's probably more correct traderly terms to explain it but that's the basic mechanics of it.

That's about it.

[Euler]

You should always be looking at the favourite, but not necessarily trading it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1dLJR8_SlI

[stueytrader]

You should always be looking at the favourite, but not necessarily trading it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1dLJR8_SlI

That's a very good distinction to make, yes Peter.

[stueytrader]

One point I would add, from that excellent video you posted above, is that if you are mostly a layer (as I am) when entering the market, then laying the bigger prices away from the favourite could mean increasing staking - as obv laying a 7.0 shot for 100 risks 600, vs 150 if you enter laying a 2.5 shot.

That depends on whether using a fixed lay stake also of course, but still is a consideration as you mentioned level of staking needed and used, in relation to possible earnings.

[Euler]

Try to ignore the liability when trading, it shouldn't make up any of the reason for your trade. You are always going to close the liability, so focus on what happens between opening and closing.