Today's Horse Racing

[ForFolksSake]

Hexham 16:40
Marty McFly

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_WSXXPQYeY

[ForFolksSake]

Chepstow 20:00
Anticipating

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qu-j1T3fza4

[foxwood]

Chepstow 20:00
Anticipating

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qu-j1T3fza4

viewtopic.php?p=372847&hilit=posting+p%26l#p372847

[sniffer66]

So, I've been playing around with the 10 years worth of horse data I've been able to accumulate. Running 2 experimental models looking for value bets, entering on runners where my model probability is less than the BF implied by x%

Last 2 days have been a bit interesting. Not bad given my tiny test stakes

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Japers... That is high odds indeed )

To be fair, its not a full representation of the price spread, they were just the big ones that stood out. I've seen it go in on up to 5 runners a race. For value, if it qualifies, it bets. Given it made £115 yesterday to stakes between 22p and 50p (I'm % staking) its an outlier day. It's hard to quantify points given the variable staking but I'm £260 up to 10p starting stakes (0.1% of £10 starting bank), and results align with backtesting, so I'm starting to build some confidence. Just going to let it run and see if it carries on snowballing.

My Value ML model continues to do well, after hitting some expected variance. I know it's not big numbers but given I'm running it as a test starting with 10p stakes compounding on a £10 bank, profit of £246 so far is very decent growth. Now up to 48p stakes. Just going to let it keep going as is. £84 for an average 40p stake isn't too shabby

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[ForFolksSake]

Chepstow 20:00
Anticipating

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qu-j1T3fza4

viewtopic.php?p=372847&hilit=posting+p%26l#p372847

What context would you like to see

[jamesedwards]

Sunday is a big day for retail, entertainment, socialising, and sport.

Across the world, Sunday is the second-biggest day for racing. Numerous tracks running, plenty of decent racing to choose from.

In the UK, Sunday racing is a damp squib. Just 3 crappy meetings today, of which only one is on the flat despite being the middle of June.

I always find this perplexing.

[ShaunWhite]

Sunday is a big day for retail, entertainment, socialising, and sport.

In the US, Sunday is the second-biggest day for racing. Numerous tracks running, plenty of decent racing to choose from.

In the UK, Sunday racing is a damp squib. Just 3 crappy meetings today, of which only one is on the flat despite being the middle of June.

I always find this perplexing.

We'd need a new tradition of a day off midweek otherwise it's hard to find the staff to cover 7 days a week. The shops in our town have always (before I was born at least) had half-day closing on Wednesdays to compensate for retail having to work Saturdays. Might be a good thing for the quality of racing tbh if they didn't bother running on Monday or Tuesday.

When do you take your days off James?

[Safeway]

Sunday is a big day for retail, entertainment, socialising, and sport.

Across the world, Sunday is the second-biggest day for racing. Numerous tracks running, plenty of decent racing to choose from.

In the UK, Sunday racing is a damp squib. Just 3 crappy meetings today, of which only one is on the flat despite being the middle of June.

I always find this perplexing.

When I started trading horse racing I thought National Hunt was the easiest to trade but I have learned that I have to let the race run for literally ages before anything becomes clear. What happens in the first three quarters of the race just doesn’t seem to matter to the result (bar fallers / pu etc.)

[jamesedwards]

Sunday is a big day for retail, entertainment, socialising, and sport.

In the US, Sunday is the second-biggest day for racing. Numerous tracks running, plenty of decent racing to choose from.

In the UK, Sunday racing is a damp squib. Just 3 crappy meetings today, of which only one is on the flat despite being the middle of June.

I always find this perplexing.

We'd need a new tradition of a day off midweek otherwise it's hard to find the staff to cover 7 days a week. The shops in our town have always (before I was born at least) had half-day closing on Wednesdays to compensate for retail having to work Saturdays. Might be a good thing for the quality of racing tbh if they didn't bother running on Monday or Tuesday.

When do you take your days off James?

I don't.

I would be all in favour of a mid-week day off though. Would make much more sense to the punter, racecourses, bookmakers, shops etc to run a full programme on Sunday in return for a Tues or Weds day off.

[ForFolksSake]

Punch 16:20
LondonCallin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfK-WX2pa8c

[EDIT}
08/06/2025 16:26:05: Market has been suspended
08/06/2025 16:26:05: [G_Auto 1] : Lay bet placed on Stay Gold at 17. Entirely unmatched when it initially reached the market. Ref: 10342
08/06/2025 16:26:10: Market has been unsuspended
08/06/2025 16:26:10: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Stay Gold: TotNumMatchLay = 12
08/06/2025 16:27:35: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Stay Gold at 3.15. The market is suspended or closed.
08/06/2025 16:27:35: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Stay Gold: TotNumMatchLay = 253

[ShaunWhite]

I don't.

We're lucky to have a job we actually want to do, but you make your own luck to a large extent. I try not to do anything serious at the weekends but usually end up doing something related like stats or learning.

The suppose problem with midweek days off for bookies, media companies etc is there's always something else to bet on, football, tennis, 2 flys crawling up a wall. And shareholders.

[ForFolksSake]

Brighton 14:57
London Boy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsKoOH6DVys

[Euler]

I don't.

We're lucky to have a job we actually want to do, but you make your own luck to a large extent. I try not to do anything serious at the weekends but usually end up doing something related like stats or learning.

The suppose problem with midweek days off for bookies, media companies etc is there's always something else to bet on, football, tennis, 2 flys crawling up a wall. And shareholders.

I tend not to trade on Sundays unless there is something special on. I'm fairly relaxed about Monday's in the summer as there are only two cards.

When I started, I did everything, but as time has passed, I've tended to automate stuff where I'm not present and have become more confident in that. I've also tried to strike a bit more balance in my personal life.

[jamesedwards]

I don't.

We're lucky to have a job we actually want to do, but you make your own luck to a large extent. I try not to do anything serious at the weekends but usually end up doing something related like stats or learning.

The suppose problem with midweek days off for bookies, media companies etc is there's always something else to bet on, football, tennis, 2 flys crawling up a wall. And shareholders.

I tend not to trade on Sundays unless there is something special on. I'm fairly relaxed about Monday's in the summer as there are only two cards.

When I started, I did everything, but as time has passed, I've tended to automate stuff where I'm not present and have become more confident in that. I've also tried to strike a bit more balance in my personal life.

Sun definitely the right day to take off.

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The idea of dropping Sun/Mon/Tue completely and targeting 20% EF is tempting. Perhaps next year...

[ForFolksSake]

[EDIT} - delete