Today's Cycling

[Lynskey888]

I think you’re being a bit hard on yourself there, henbet! You knocked the cobwebs off this thread and got it going again.

I see Pogacar got going again yesterday, too.

Looks like most of the money traded on Pod was in the 1.6ish range so far.. This seems crazy low for a three week race where a whole pile of events outside his control could take him out.

No idea what the right price is but anything less then evens seems low to me for the favourite in a grand tour. Last week I could understand but first week?

Out to 1.8 after the Dauphiné TT, now in to 1.5-ish. I’ve got no idea why anyone would want to have back money in this market so far out from the off when they know that BF will settle as a loser any rider who doesn’t start the race. Maybe people see Pogacar as the ultimate sure thing.

The first mountain stage of this year’s Tour isn’t until the second week. Even if Pogacar’s nowhere near the maillot jaune for the first eleven stages I don’t expect his price will move out as a result.

And he does have an exceptional record of not crashing. I can’t think of a serious spill since he was brought down during Liege-Bastogne-Liege in 2023.

Like I say, I wouldn’t fancy having back bets in this market at all, but if you forced me to pick an ante-post Tour winner, I think Pogacar’s more likely to avoid injury, stupid crashes and schedule changes than any other rider.

[henbet22]

Ned Boulting did give it the "Game on" in the highlights commentary which made me smirk.

It's good to chat cycling, its a bit niche but its always been a gratifying sport to participate in and to watch.

Just watched the highlights from yesterday. Well the modern day cannibal is back with a bang. Must have be the bike/set up on the TT blip.....

He has it all. He really is one of the best I have ever seen live. To cruise away from Vingegaard like that..... its just phenomenal.

I really wasn't sure about Pogi after the TT. Now I am sure with the TdF looming that 1.56 is very short!! For reasons Lynskey stated above. But if someone gave me £10k and said you have to have one bet on the TdF right now it would be going on the Fav but I am a degenerate backer.

[sionascaig]

Japers, that was quite a move over the day.

Think I just found my lay entry.

[henbet22]

Yes the sensible thing to do and look for volatility.....

[sionascaig]

The first mountain stage of this year’s Tour isn’t until the second week. Even if Pogacar’s nowhere near the maillot jaune for the first eleven stages I don’t expect his price will move out as a result.

Yes, but at the same time I can't see it coming in much further so hopefully any significant move will be up rather than down..

Looking forward to it any which way and one thing is for sure - he won't be gifted it - those riders are as hard as nails...

[Lynskey888]

Ned Boulting did give it the "Game on" in the highlights commentary which made me smirk.

Channeling his inner Alan Partridge... I don't mind Ned's commentary on the cycling; can't stand him on the darts.

I hope you and Sionascraig get your drift on Pogacar. There's alway the possibility of illness, a substantial crash or a catastrophically bad day, like the implosion on the Col du Granon in 2022 (in theory at least). There's been some speculation that the Dauphine TT was a deliberately controlled effort rather than a poor ride:

https://x.com/tomdanielson/status/1932989894974190037

I thought Pogacar looked awfully pale after the time trial, but Danielson's argument is quite convincing. In the immediate future, I can't see the Slovenian succumbing to a repeat of the Granon performance or losing a chunk of time that would threaten his GC prospects in the Tour. I don't think there's anyone who can lay a glove on him over a three-week stage race.

The market took a while to recognise Pogacar's dominance last year. There was a wobble on Wednesday post-time trial, but I think the market is convinced of his prospects again. Look at the Dauphine overall winner on the exchange. With a 43-second lead, Pogacar traded as low as 1.06!

Cheers, gents! Best of luck to you both.

[henbet22]

Lynskey I was being serious I am a big fan of backing not a layer of Pogi and I am by now pretty much hard wired to back and look for winners. Made 3 ticks already on my imaginary 10k!!
I was laughing at winking at myself.... I might have to spend a year Martingale (averaging in) sensibly laying and looking for volatility to cure myself. I am not a natural trader. Good gambler though

The TT result is still really strange.... it's odd. Maybe sandbagging yes.

Jonas was happier today. Pogi looked like he kept a lot in the tank though. In the TdF....It could be the accumulated fatigue of the long hot days that give Jonas a chance. Maybe also the difference in strength in teams. Has a few more weeks to ride into form Jonas. Does look like another duel between the two though.

But there must be doubts in the Visma team that Jonas can return to his pre crash output. It's a Pogi back for me.

[Lynskey888]

Sorry, henbet, I thought you were considering a lay on Pogacar, too.

It could be the accumulated fatigue of the long hot days that give Jonas a chance.

^ This is an interesting point, I think. There's also the potential efects of a packed race schedule which started in the UAE in February and took in lots of the spring classics. It could catch up with him eventually. Maybe we got a glimpse of that in Amstel when Skjelmose and Evenepoel were able to pull him back. That wouldn't have happened last year.

Jonas definitely looked better on Saturday. He doesn't have that Pogacar explosive kick, but he fought hard to limit his losses. I do think Pogacar was very deliberately doing enough to maintain the gap and no more. In fact, I don't really think Pogacar planned to go up the road with 12km left. The move was prompted by his isolation. It was either attack or be attacked.

[henbet22]

No worries. I think it's my stream of consciousness way of thinking/writing. 5 Ticks now!!

Yes agree. Pogi has burnt some matches as ever. Been busy for a while. Definitely under clubbed with his team and this makes him attack even more. It was quite amusing watching Jonas slightly peeved with Lipowitz sitting on his wheel since we can expect Jonas sitting on Pogi's wheel for 2 weeks at least!!

[Lynskey888]

No worries. I think it's my stream of consciousness way of thinking/writing. 5 Ticks now!

Ha-ha!