Hi all,
Do any of you use track data/ horse statistics Data?
Did you find it helped elevate your automation to the next level? or does it infact help at all?
Data
Quite a vague question. I use TPD a lot now to understand the nature of a race. But, of course, this has little impact on the pre-off market.
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ShaunWhite
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I don't use fundamental data, ie details about the horse form, jockey etc etc, but I do use saved price data. Personally I wouldn't/couldn't trade without it, but designing a system to analyse the data (and optionally run backtests) is a big challenge. But it's 2025, data is valuable and you can got as deep as you want. There's a lot of tools out there to help, that might be something you do in Excel right through to deep-learning temporal forecasting models. Google "What is a tft model".
Data can be a blessing or a curse, there's a lot statistical traps to fall into than would produce terrible results but if you understand the subject it's gold.
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ShaunWhite
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Just worked hard. First two years I didn't have a day off and was doing 10 hrs a day. And had a project plan with reviews and milestones rather than just drifting. I'd been an IT project manager so just wore that hat and gave myself a really hand time. Even had a sit down progress meeting each Fri with my missus to justify what I'd been doing, scratching your arse and watching YouTube don't seem like great progress when you say it out loud. Sounds daft but I needed the discipline.
To paraphrase the Chinese phylosophy, a journey of 1000 miles is done one step at a time. You just have to make the steps small enough.
But its a meritocracy, if you work harder and smarter than 90% of everyone else then you'll make money. Start every day thinking that. Sorry for yet more long and boring autobiographical stuff, but nobody is born knowing this shit, what you know or don't know is personal choice.
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ShaunWhite
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... FYI Emtaxx this was ever a hobby, just business. Invested £xxxx to give it a try for a couple of years. Hence the dull rigid approach rather than just pissing around watching sport on the telly all day and guessing.
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ShaunWhite
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If you're automating than learn about EV, and how to measure when and where you're getting it, and where you're not. Almost any strategy contains good and bad bets so you need to know which is which, and you can't make money without it.
And learn about sample size.
Then try to forget about 'trading'. 'Trading' is just having a lot of bets that all run, so don't give away EV just because you want a certain market total. Your bet history doesn't even have market totals, Betfair only throw subtotals across your day so they can charge you some commission. When it comes to your weekly total it doesn't matter if a good bet was the last bet in one race, or the first bet on the next race. If you have to close regardless of the cost (a negative EV bet) then maybe you're staking too big, but some small loss of EV might be a price worth paying to reduce varience.
Well that's the first month or two sorted. Nail the basics and then start looking for strategy.
But it's brutal out there though, it's an established industry with career pros, talented amateurs, bookies and syndicates....all fighting for a slice of a small pie. A 100k market probably only yields about £1000 after the winners have been paid and everyone wants some. And there's no easy 1st rounds games, every market is a cup final with all the major players on the pitch, it might take a while before you get a kick of the ball.
It's doable, but expect blood sweat and tears along the way.
(All just my view and others will have their own advice, trading isn't prescriptive and everyone does it their own way )
Yeah bit of an interesting one really. I can't say I've done much on EV.
The way I look at it is simply, I see a pattern(s) all of the time. How can I create a code which can extract money from this.
and then tune it further.
EV is a bit over my head, probably elite side of automation
The way I look at it is simply, I see a pattern(s) all of the time. How can I create a code which can extract money from this.
and then tune it further.
EV is a bit over my head, probably elite side of automation
EV just means 'if I do this many times should I come out with a profit?' - so you're already thinking about it.Emtaxx wrote: ↑Thu Jun 19, 2025 10:47 amYeah bit of an interesting one really. I can't say I've done much on EV.
The way I look at it is simply, I see a pattern(s) all of the time. How can I create a code which can extract money from this.
and then tune it further.
EV is a bit over my head, probably elite side of automation
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ShaunWhite
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It's not 'elite' it's betting 101.
Manual traders graft hard for a year learning their craft, learning to auto isn't just a case of setting stuff up and doing nothing for 2 weeks, it's graft too.
Maybe you didn't get my comments about how hard it is to beat the competition. Iro 5% of people who try trading make money long term, what are you going to do different to the 95%.
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ShaunWhite
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Finding patterns is the easy bit, getting a value price and knowing if you have one is a whole other story.
It's the coin toss situation, get 2.1 on 50% chances and you'll get rich, but if you only get 1.9 you'll end up in the poor house.
Im going to petty you guys, and beg for help every singleShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Jun 19, 2025 3:19 pmIt's not 'elite' it's betting 101.
Manual traders graft hard for a year learning their craft, learning to auto isn't just a case of setting stuff up and doing nothing for 2 weeks, it's graft too.
Maybe you didn't get my comments about how hard it is to beat the competition. Iro 5% of people who try trading make money long term, what are you going to do different to the 95%.
Day. That should just about scrape me into the 5% haha
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ShaunWhite
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- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
