Probability of 3 Matches Total 2 Goals

[Garethp123]

Let's say for example Chelsea win 2-0 and then draw 1-1. They have had two matches in a row finish with 2 goals. What is the probability that their next match will finish with 2 goals?

How can I get data that shows how often a team has had three matches in a row finish with exactly 2 goals?

[ODPaul82]

https://football-data.co.uk/

also check out Peters videos on poisson/probability distribution which will put things into a better light rather than looking at "team has won/draw/lost x amount over set period of time"

[FTAcademy]

Let's say for example Chelsea win 2-0 and then draw 1-1. They have had two matches in a row finish with 2 goals. What is the probability that their next match will finish with 2 goals?

How can I get data that shows how often a team has had three matches in a row finish with exactly 2 goals?

Past results mean nothing in my opinion, especially in the situation you mentioned.

Ok, maybe if Chelsea was scoring 2 goals every match (2-0, 0-2), we can say it's a pattern. But scoring 2, then receiving 2 or 1-1 correct score, this is usual.

Also, this is pure gambling, not trading.

[ShaunWhite]

Also, this is pure gambling, not trading.

Sorry to jump on this, but.....

Are you saying that betting on the direction a price might move isn't gambling? Or betting on the accuracy of your probability estimate? The only difference is timeframe, either 100ms, 100s or 100min.

'Gambling' 'trading' and 'betting' only differ in the way those words are perceived by the public, and the word you choose is down to how you want to be viewed. 'Gambling' sounds scuzzy, 'trading' sounds like it's clever and complicated. We've always had 'professional gamblers', 'professional traders' is just a marketing angle designed to distance itself from dirty 'gambling'. We're all gamblers, in the same way an insurance company is gambling, there's no need to be ashamed of using the word.

But if he wants the probability the answer is, very close to the market price.

[FTAcademy]

Also, this is pure gambling, not trading.

Sorry to jump on this, but.....

Are you saying that betting on the direction a price might move isn't gambling? Or betting on the accuracy of your probability estimate? The only difference is timeframe, either 100ms, 100s or 100min.

'Gambling' 'trading' and 'betting' only differ in the way those words are perceived by the public, and the word you choose is down to how you want to be viewed. 'Gambling' sounds scuzzy, 'trading' sounds like it's clever and complicated. We've always had 'professional gamblers', 'professional traders' is just a marketing angle designed to distance itself from dirty 'gambling'. We're all gamblers, in the same way an insurance company is gambling, there's no need to be ashamed of using the word.

But if he wants the probability the answer is, very close to the market price.

It's an endless discussion about that