Predicted Goals and Over & Under Predictions - Guardian Market List Layout

[Dallas]

Actually sorted it - is there a way to set this up as the default guardian view, rather than applying rules every line and setting up the layout each time i load BA?

You can create a shortcut key in the keyboard shortcut editor that will apply specfic rules files to specfic market types
https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/betf ... one-click/

Once you have the guardian layout and custom column profiles selected just go back to the main screen and in the top left corner click
Settings > Save settings

[thepressure]

What exactly is the criterai for this actually working? Ive got several matches on the go this morning, Japan and Korea where nothing is firing, which i presume is liquidity, but one is pretty high?

What exactly are the thresholds for this to work so I know for the future?

Thankyou

EDIT - Is it because of inplay, any way to keep this whilst in play, so I can view a live game and see that its underperforming?

[thepressure]

Same issues again, good liquidity on this match in indonesia, but why cant I get anything yet the championship game with loads less is fine?

[Dallas]

On the stored value tab tick the 'Write stored value to log' for both the values it stores
That will show what values its storing at the time it triggers (or if the rule is not triggering)

The example in the OP was set to 'Always Armed' and has no conditions other than it needs to be a match odds market, so there is nothing to stop it triggering unless its outside your Guardian refresh (if you have one set)

[thepressure]

I guess where do I find the log now? I presume ive ticked the right bit, only place I could see log?

Just doesnt seem to work inplay, even tho i have always armed ticked

[Dallas]

I guess where do I find the log now? I presume ive ticked the right bit, only place I could see log?

Just doesnt seem to work inplay, even tho i have always armed ticked

You've ticked the signals to be written to the log - but no signals are used in this file
I can see from the log you've ticked one of the stored values but the other one which actually stores the predicted goals hasn't been ticked

Have you edited any other parts of the file?
I can see you've now set it to unlimited triggers (which isn't needed)

It will trigger on pre-off or during in-play

[paul161270]

Hi there, new to this thread, this works perfectly for games not started but once inplay it does not show any more example here below - tomorrow games at the top and the ones in play now - thanks in advance

[Dallas]

Hi there, new to this thread, this works perfectly for games not started but once inplay it does not show any more example here below - tomorrow games at the top and the ones in play now - thanks in advance

The predicted goals are derived from the pricing of the correct score market, this is best done before the start of the match (its not intended to be used dynamically during the match), especially as goals are scored and selections of the CS market no longer contain any prices

[paul161270]

thanks for the update.

I there anything like this for eg strong home or away teams?

[Dallas]

thanks for the update.

I there anything like this for eg strong home or away teams?

I'm not sure what you mean?

An automation file that looks for strong fav's or for the predicted scores to be derived from a strong fav?

[thepressure]

so this WONT work inplay?

anyway to get this working inplay, eg ive just loaded up a game 30 mins in and wouldnt mind knowing what the predictions are/were?

[zhujunrun]

hi

i am doene setting . so next what to do ,?
back or lay ?

[Dallas]

hi

i am doene setting . so next what to do ,?
back or lay ?

Which ever you want, its up to you

[rkuk]

Hi Dallas / All,

Firstly just wanted to say thank you for creating / helping everyone with the technical support! Some clever people out there!

I'm saying on every post I am new as I've only just started - but I think that helps people understand the help and guidance needed / stupidity of my questions!

During install I struggled to find the value based colour settings, but eventually seen the little spanner and I was able to carry on. Might help to amend the post to say (click the little spanner).

Having seen some of Peters videos on working out expected goals taking into consideration the performance of both teams in the league and if they are away / home I assumed this was a tool that worked on those maths, but reading the thread I see it is based on other market values (handy for me to know before I get started).

A couple of questions, is it possible to create some kind of predicting formula (other than using excel like Peter used in his videos) that we can use, or, is this version near enough the same thing? (I'm not asking you or anyone else to go off and make something Dallas - I wouldn't be so rude!). Just interested in what makes tick.

And (if I'm allowed to ask) what results have people been getting using this? Generally quite good / accurate?

Either way thank you for creating and helping!

[ODPaul82]

It will probably be based on a poisson / probability distribution model with the current pricing/form/league position taken into account, but the actual calc will be the secret sauce
I don't use it personally

I've got a heavily modified poisson for my own calculations which are then just triggered automatically in-play based on current time and scoreline running 24/7 applied on pretty much any game that has enough volume in-play. Better results could be achieved if taking a stochastic view of what was taking place, my viewpoint is purely numerical.

The values from the ruleset though is a great stepping stone but as Peter has said before, think of it as leaning on a lampost to get an initial lumination (or something along those lines).

fati.PNG