The Open Golf Championship 2025

[bobalski]

My stats say a 4 shot leader into the last day should be priced around 1.20

What about a 3 shot lead standing on the 18th tee?

Would have been an interesting amount lost at 1.01 on Jean van de Velde if Betfair was around for the 1999 Open

[TupleVision]

I have zero opportunities identified, nothing, nadda, niet. There's a bit of juice backing McIlroy and laying Scheffler but not enough to get me interested at this point. Right now, unless something extraordinary happens it's pretty barren out there.

[gstar1975]

I thought laying the fav was the play in Golf with a few backs. Thats the idea I got from Peters video on youtube. How the hell did he get over £1k at the cut?

[TupleVision]

I thought laying the fav was the play in Golf with a few backs. Thats the idea I got from Peters video on youtube. How the hell did he get over £1k at the cut?

You're only laying the favourite if there's value to lay the favourite same with all trading/betting. If there's no value you find value elsewhere. How you calculate if there's value or not is up to you.

[gstar1975]

My stats say a 4 shot leader into the last day should be priced around 1.20

I have it at 1.40

I'm looking at all Open's there is data on and seeing what the third round lead was and how many went on to win.

Are you looking at just "The Open" data or all Opens globally?

[Euler]

Just The Open, going back decades.

[gstar1975]

So how would you turn this data into odds to compare to Scheffler, Li positions after round 3?

[henbet22]

Not that relevant without how much they are leading by tbh

[gstar1975]

Not that relevant without how much they are leading by tbh

This is the data that Peter is looking at. So I think it might a a bit of relevance.

[henbet22]

No probs. Haven't watched the video so I wouldn't know. But I would think you need how many shots they are leading by to be able to price it up.

[TupleVision]

Not that relevant without how much they are leading by tbh

This is the data that Peter is looking at. So I think it might a a bit of relevance.

Your GPT table only shows what the leader's score was after 3 rounds. It doesn't show how many shots they led by.

[henbet22]

I used to back the 3rd round leader religiously. Biggest price I got was Phil Golding 7-1. Todd Hamilton was pretty juicy when he won the open as well. Maybe 11/4 something like that. Or was that the playoff with Els? Maybe.

Anyway you have 75% total info so it's a good solid area to look at.

[Euler]

Scotties approach on the first was remarkable. That’s a real blow for the cashing pack.

[Crazyskier]

Scottie is seemingly on auto-pilot. Incredible.

CS

[TupleVision]

It's remarkable just how composed he is, reminds me a lot of Djokovic sometimes.