Guidlines for market liquidity?

[DrJAT]

Hi all,

I'm just wondering if there are any guidelines or rules of thumb that people use for assessing liquidity and how tradeable a market is?

I'm particularly interested in over/under 0.5 goals for football. I've noticed in particular that there is usually less money and bigger gaps on the ladder for the "under" outcome compared to the "over" (pre-match). It often seems like the "over" side would be much more tradeable, so would you apply different criteria for backing "over" compared to laying "under"? I know some people look at book percentage, but how much does that matter if most of the volume is going through only one of the ladders? I've always wondered why there isn't some kind of cross-matching or market-making bot that equalises the money between both ladders for binary outcomes - since backing "over" is essentially the same as laying "under".

Anyway, please let me know if you have any rules (or BAF files) for when you do or don't enter these kinds of markets. Also any guidlines on volume-based staking would be appreciated too.
Many thanks,
JT

[jamesedwards]

Hi all,

I'm just wondering if there are any guidelines or rules of thumb that people use for assessing liquidity and how tradeable a market is?

I'm particularly interested in over/under 0.5 goals for football. I've noticed in particular that there is usually less money and bigger gaps on the ladder for the "under" outcome compared to the "over" (pre-match). It often seems like the "over" side would be much more tradeable, so would you apply different criteria for backing "over" compared to laying "under"? I know some people look at book percentage, but how much does that matter if most of the volume is going through only one of the ladders? I've always wondered why there isn't some kind of cross-matching or market-making bot that equalises the money between both ladders for binary outcomes - since backing "over" is essentially the same as laying "under".

Anyway, please let me know if you have any rules (or BAF files) for when you do or don't enter these kinds of markets. Also any guidlines on volume-based staking would be appreciated too.
Many thanks,
JT

Betfair have their own cross-matching algorithm that automatically puts up corresponding offers on the other side so it's unlikely that such a market would have better liquidity on one side compared to the other.

eg, a £100 lay offer on unders @ 3.0 will automatically appear as a £200 back offer on overs @ 1.5.

z198.jpg

[jamesedwards]

Hi all,

I'm just wondering if there are any guidelines or rules of thumb that people use for assessing liquidity and how tradeable a market is?

I'm particularly interested in over/under 0.5 goals for football. I've noticed in particular that there is usually less money and bigger gaps on the ladder for the "under" outcome compared to the "over" (pre-match). It often seems like the "over" side would be much more tradeable, so would you apply different criteria for backing "over" compared to laying "under"? I know some people look at book percentage, but how much does that matter if most of the volume is going through only one of the ladders? I've always wondered why there isn't some kind of cross-matching or market-making bot that equalises the money between both ladders for binary outcomes - since backing "over" is essentially the same as laying "under".

Anyway, please let me know if you have any rules (or BAF files) for when you do or don't enter these kinds of markets. Also any guidlines on volume-based staking would be appreciated too.
Many thanks,
JT

The tool that I would use would depend on what I'm doing. If I was just putting an offer into the market at around market pricing then I would only be interested in the current book %s. But if I was putting up an offer that may be some distance away from current price then I would be also interested in the volume of money available towards the front of the queue.

[DrJAT]

Betfair have their own cross-matching algorithm that automatically puts up corresponding offers on the other side so it's unlikely that such a market would have better liquidity on one side compared to the other.

eg, a £100 lay offer on unders @ 3.0 will automatically appear as a £200 back offer on overs @ 1.5.
z198.jpg

That's interesting, when does it kick in? I'm looking at a match that kicks off at 6pm and it has thousands on the overs side and barely anything on the unders, with a gap at 19.0 (which slightly closed by the time I wrote it all down below, as not sure how to attach images but it's OB vs Randers).

Under 0.5: 17 (51), 17.5 (45), 18.5 (4) | 19 (3), 19.5 (170), 20 (25)
Over 0.5: 1.03 (5.8k), 1.04 (17.8k), 1.05 (14.8k) | 1.06 (587), 1.07 (5.7k), 1.08 (3.5k)

Surely a tonne of money to back Over 0.5 at 1.05 should show up as a lay of roughly 20 on the other side?

Nearly all the O/U 0.5 markets look like this btw.

[jamesedwards]

Betfair have their own cross-matching algorithm that automatically puts up corresponding offers on the other side so it's unlikely that such a market would have better liquidity on one side compared to the other.

eg, a £100 lay offer on unders @ 3.0 will automatically appear as a £200 back offer on overs @ 1.5.
z198.jpg

That's interesting, when does it kick in? I'm looking at a match that kicks off at 6pm and it has thousands on the overs side and barely anything on the unders, with a gap at 19.0 (which slightly closed by the time I wrote it all down below, as not sure how to attach images but it's OB vs Randers).

Under 0.5: 17 (51), 17.5 (45), 18.5 (4) | 19 (3), 19.5 (170), 20 (25)
Over 0.5: 1.03 (5.8k), 1.04 (17.8k), 1.05 (14.8k) | 1.06 (587), 1.07 (5.7k), 1.08 (3.5k)

Surely a tonne of money to back Over 0.5 at 1.05 should show up as a lay of roughly 20 on the other side?

What tool are you using to view those volumes? On some tools such as Bet Angel you can choose to display volumes with or without the betfair cross-matching. The cross-matched offers exist, they're just not always visible based on your settings.

z200.jpg

[DrJAT]

What tool are you using to view those volumes? On some tools such as Bet Angel you can choose to display volumes with or without the betfair cross-matching. The money still exists, it's just not always visible based on your settings.

I'm just in Bet Angel Guardian. How do I change that setting to view the cross-matched money?
And surely if that cross-matching was active there wouldn't be gaps on one side. Looking at Amiens vs. Reims that's coming up at 19:45, it's got 44k of volume total, with thoursands available at 1.04 to 1.09 on the overs side, but a gap at 15.5 on the unders. Is that gap there artifically because it would represent 1.069 on the other side of the book, which is in between the best back and lay prices currently available?

Thanks for your help with this btw. It really helps to understand what's going on.

Edit: Just saw you've added a screenshot for the settings. I've just found that it was already enabled, so the numbers I'm seeing already have that adjustment! I guess maybe the cross-matching just doesn't operate in all markets?

[ShaunWhite]

The cross-matched offers exist, they're just not always visible based on your settings.

Might be intersting to toggle that setting to see if XM is On for that market..... And the other complication is XMXM

[jamesedwards]

What tool are you using to view those volumes? On some tools such as Bet Angel you can choose to display volumes with or without the betfair cross-matching. The money still exists, it's just not always visible based on your settings.

I'm just in Bet Angel Guardian. How do I change that setting to view the cross-matched money?
And surely if that cross-matching was active there wouldn't be gaps on one side. Looking at Amiens vs. Reims that's coming up at 19:45, it's got 44k of volume total, with thoursands available at 1.04 to 1.09 on the overs side, but a gap at 15.5 on the unders. Is that gap there artifically because it would represent 1.069 on the other side of the book, which is in between the best back and lay prices currently available?

Thanks for your help with this btw. It really helps to understand what's going on.

Edit: Just saw you've added a screenshot for the settings. I've just found that it was already enabled, so the numbers I'm seeing already have that adjustment! I guess maybe the cross-matching just doesn't operate in all markets?

As far as I know cross-matching is switched on for all applicable markets unless there is an error, or abnormal event such as a non-runner not yet removed from a horse race market.

If they don't match up exactly then they round to the next price and if it gets matched then Betfair pockets the difference (I assume).


What happens if you put up a back request for £100 on unders at 1.78 here? https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/f ... .246290411

The exact cross matched price would be 2.282, so Betfair round this down to the next applicable price and a cross-matched £78 at 2.28 appears on overs.

This is what I get:

z201.jpg

to

z202.jpg