Am I on the right way of doing football trading?

[stvlie]

I’m looking for input on my trading strategy, and any feedback is welcome.
This is my 4th month of actively trading football goals.
Current results: 198 total trades, balance: -29 pts.

What I’m doing:

FIRST HALF TRADE

Backing 1st-half Over 1.5 in the 15–20 min range (average entry price: 3.5–6) for 0.66 pt.
I green up when a goal is scored.
If no goal is scored, I LTD 1st half at 1.50 odds for 0.33 pt.
So, a 0-0 first half costs me 1 point.
Late goal = scratch
2 Late goal = double full win

SECOND HALF TRADE

Backing Over 1.5 goals from the current score in the 65–75 min range (only if max 1 goal was scored in the 1st half). Average entry price: 3.5–6 for 0.66 pt.
I green up when a goal is scored.
If no goal is scored, I LTD (or lay Under 0.5 if the score is 0-1 or 1-0) at 1.50 odds for 0.33 pt.
No goal in the second half costs me 1 point.
Late goal = scratch
2 Late goal = double full win

How I find matches:

I check average Over 0.5 goals % for both teams in their respective home/away settings.
Average Over 1.5 goals % from both teams also supports the decision.
In that specific half, average goals scored must be greater than goals conceded.
Matches are also shortlisted by the GoalProfits team.

Entry timing:

I enter a trade if in-play stats (shots and corners) are strong — at least 3 total shots + corners every 10 minutes.
If in-play stats during my entry window don’t look positive, I skip the trade.
If in-play stats improve later:
For 1st-half trades, I LTD around 35 mins.
For 2nd-half trades, I LTD around 82 mins or lay Under 1.5 goals from 0-1/1-0.

My question:
What’s more important: my entry/exit timing or my match selection?
What should I do next? I know I’m currently a losing trader on Betfair, but my “learning costs” are funded by profits from Pinnacle steam value betting on local books.
Any input is appreciated — I just want to improve and eventually become profitable.

PS: I use BetInAsia’s sharp exchange (2.8% commission) instead of Betfair’s Tier 3 commission.

[ShaunWhite]

Your strategy seems to have a lot of bets across various markets, what are you doing about getting value on them? Are you just accepting what people are offering, or trying to get a little better.

Start simple rather than all that complexity, if you can't make money with a simple open and close on one market you won't make money by combining multiple markets and 10 bets.

[jimibt]

i'd agree with shaun. if the filter on a single trade doesn't produce a good outcome, so called "insurance" bets will only amplify any issues (viz a viz extend losses). I've gone down this path about 10 years ago and it ended in pain due to commission per market, juggling with multiple markets and multiple games. In short, it quickly became unscalable as money was tied up simultaneously across the estate with no wiggle room. It also was way more stressful than the rewards on offer due to having to be hyper vigilant on automations and interventions.

Best to focus on looking either for value bets or looking to filter into games that offer an edge (that you'll need to discover) that can be traded.

Hopefully, not sounding negative, just my personal experiences passed on.

[stvlie]

what i think and be taught about value is when the match i select have high percentage of goal chance and those selection are separated each half
so there will be a match that qualify both FH and SH (because of those 2 teams have high goal rate based on historical data of last 5/ current season data)

from the last 5 / last 10 / current season timeframe data, i mostly use:
average FH over0.5 goal
average FH over1.5 goal
average SH over 0.5 goal
average Sh over 1.5 goal
FH late goal % (40min+)
SH late goal % (85min+)
average goal scored / goal conceded FT

I know that everybody including bookmakers will also have these kind of data.
My POV: odds 2.00 will produce 50% win chance, but the actual reality is some of the match will have 70% chance while some have 30% chance

value is when i can find those 70% chance, removing noise from all of that match that have 2.00 odds (example)


@shaun: if you think there is too much market involved ( OVER 1.5 and OVER 0.5 /LTD for cover bet),
do you have suggestion for me to think of?

@jim: do you have suggestion where do i can start finding those real values? I do value bet, but only following pinnacle's steam ( so i never work with a real model / my very own odds price

[jimibt]

usually, finding value bets involves comparing probability to your own models. However, copilot kindly came up with the following:

Core Tactics for Finding Value Bets on Betfair
1. Convert Odds to Implied Probability
Use the formula: Probability (%) = (1 / Decimal Odds) × 100

Compare this to your own analysis. If your estimated probability is higher than the market’s, you’ve found a potential value bet.

2. Track Historical Odds Movements
Betfair stores historical odds data. By analyzing how odds have moved over time, you can:

Spot sharp shifts that may signal insider info or market overreaction

Compare opening vs. closing odds to detect late value

3. Monitor Undervalued & Overvalued Selections
Undervalued odds: Longer than they should be — potential for profit

Overvalued odds: Shorter than justified — ideal for laying bets

4. React to Market News & Sentiment
Stay alert to:

Team news, injuries, weather, or lineup changes

Sudden odds drops or spikes — often driven by large bets or new info

These can create temporary inefficiencies before the market corrects itself

5. Use Quantitative Models (if you're math-savvy)
Build or use models that compare real-world probabilities to market odds

Some traders use regression analysis or machine learning to spot patterns

6. Compare Across Bookmakers
If Betfair’s odds are significantly different from traditional bookies, it may signal a value opportunity — especially if Betfair lags behind in adjusting.

[jamesedwards]

The difficulty with this approach is you need to have something that makes you better than the 'hive mind' of thousands of Betfair customers. They will be watching the game too and prices on offer will normally be pretty accurate.

Also, not only do you need to beat commission, but every entry and exit costs you the spread. You're entering and greening up multiple markets so compounding the spread impact. Do you need to be entering multiple markets or can you just focus on one? If you have a big enough bank, do you need to green up at all? If so then can you make your exit +EV?

[ShaunWhite]

@shaun: if you think there is too much market involved ( OVER 1.5 and OVER 0.5 /LTD for cover bet),
do you have suggestion for me to think of?

Yes, don't bet into markets where it's a case of one goal and your bet is worth nothing, like OU0.5. Eg the MO will always give you a chance of exiting without a full loss, or trade CS 2-2 while it's 0-0.

Ev isn't just just the odds of the individual bet propositions, it's also in the likelihood/return on the price moving from price 1 to price 2 depending on A or B happening.

Purest will argue that every bet should be EV and they're not wrong, but that's only knowable at scale and if you're trading a handful of games, considering the ev on moves is probably more realistic.

[stvlie]

Also, not only do you need to beat commission, but every entry and exit costs you the spread. You're entering and greening up multiple markets so compounding the spread impact. Do you need to be entering multiple markets or can you just focus on one? If you have a big enough bank, do you need to green up at all? If so then can you make your exit +EV?

Really love how you explain this. Its similar to my first journey when do value betting and decided NOT to ARB my value bets
thank you James
just something to clarify, if I only trade 1 market, does greening up really bad and it is still better to not green up and just do 1 straight value bet?

EV isn’t just about the odds of individual bet propositions. It’s also about the likelihood/return on the price moving from price 1 to price 2 depending on whether A or B happens.

Purists will argue that every bet should be +EV, and they’re not wrong. But EV is only really knowable at scale. If you’re trading just a handful of games, then considering the EV of price moves is probably more realistic.

Can you explain this a bit more? I have my own interpretation, but I’m afraid I may have misunderstood your point.

(From my conclusion: trading the OU2.5 market at 0-0 better for me than trading the OU1.5 market, because the profit potential seems greater from price move POV.)

[jamesedwards]

Also, not only do you need to beat commission, but every entry and exit costs you the spread. You're entering and greening up multiple markets so compounding the spread impact. Do you need to be entering multiple markets or can you just focus on one? If you have a big enough bank, do you need to green up at all? If so then can you make your exit +EV?

Really love how you explain this. Its similar to my first journey when do value betting and decided NOT to ARB my value bets
thank you James
just something to clarify, if I only trade 1 market, does greening up really bad and it is still better to not green up and just do 1 straight value bet?

Assuming your only goal is to maximise profit (or minimise loss) then you should treat every trade on it's own merit, including any exit trade. You're just throwing half your long term profit away if you're entering at +2% EV (expected value) and then blindly greening up with a -1% EV.

Some people deliberately choose to sacrifice some of their profit in return for a smoother profit curve. This might be especially useful if you have other pressures like a limited bank to manage.

In an ideal world both your entry and exit trades are +EV so you get the best of both.

[ShaunWhite]

Can you explain this a bit more? I have my own interpretation, but I’m afraid I may have misunderstood your point.

(From my conclusion: trading the OU2.5 market at 0-0 better for me than trading the OU1.5 market, because the profit potential seems greater from price move POV.)

Not so much the profit potential, more that the swings (variance) isn't so great. If you stake £100 on ou0.5 at 0-0 then you might be looking at say +105 or -100 if there's a goal or not, but put the same £100 on the MO market that might be +15 or +10. Same profit potential, far less drama.

Those numbers were probably not esp realistic, but in principal trading is about staking pretty big, but wins and losses are relatively small and manageable/acceptable. Where the profits start to accumulate vs straight betting, is that you can get in and out of a market multiple times per match.