Am I on the right way of doing football trading?

[sionascaig]

I see so many Discord servers of traders doing that and roughly breaking even, because they just can't resist the FOMO or they ignore the prices on offer

see some suggestion too about price but i really cant figure it out if the price has value on it or not
both team performance, league habbit, etc is calculated in the price. so even if i enter trade exactly at 70th minutes, price offered to me will be vary according to those factor
and i dont know if the price is good or bad, all i can track right know is my profit and goal rate / win rate

And that - "i dont know if the price is good or bad" - is actually a great start..

For the main markets (in general) in football & cricket say, it is reasonable to assume the price will be "accurate" at any given point and set by those with good models & money to back it up.

Of course a model is just that, a model. The true price is unknown but is expected to be within some factor of the variance of the models mean.

If that is true then the main opportunities could come from factors that will impact these models, e.g. team news, weather whatever... Or just demand (or lack thereof) pushing the price into a value range.

I find it very helpful looking at some of the lesser traded markets (specifically gappy ones).

If you look at where the big money is sitting that often give you an idea where the main players think value is.

And as you wont have all the overheads of a syndicate, should be able to undercut them )

[wearthefoxhat]

I’m looking for input on my trading strategy, and any feedback is welcome.
This is my 4th month of actively trading football goals.
Current results: 198 total trades, balance: -29 pts.

My question:
What’s more important: my entry/exit timing or my match selection?
What should I do next? I know I’m currently a losing trader on Betfair, but my “learning costs” are funded by profits from Pinnacle steam value betting on local books.
Any input is appreciated — I just want to improve and eventually become profitable.

FWIW, I reckon the choice of match, along with your total goals estimation for the game, pre-off, is the most important. If you predict a low scoring match, ie: TG predicted <2 and assuming more goals are scored in the second half, then the plan should be set up for that. If TG predicted > 2.50, and making the same assumption, your plan should reflect that too.

How you go about estimating total goals in a game could be done by various means. Suggest using GPT (free version) or something similar to give you ideas. I've developed a poisson distribution sheet, with help from a thread on this forum. If you're interested in that approach, then here's the link for the original sheet from Derek. (it has goal timings on it too)

viewtopic.php?t=23700&hilit=poisson


BTW, your trading plan looks good and well thought through.

[TupleVision]

For the main markets (in general) in football & cricket say, it is reasonable to assume the price will be "accurate" at any given point and set by those with good models & money to back it up.

Of course a model is just that, a model. The true price is unknown but is expected to be within some factor of the variance of the models mean.

If that is true then the main opportunities could come from factors that will impact these models, e.g. team news, weather whatever... Or just demand (or lack thereof) pushing the price into a value range.

I find it very helpful looking at some of the lesser traded markets (specifically gappy ones).

If you look at where the big money is sitting that often give you an idea where the main players think value is.

And as you wont have all the overheads of a syndicate, should be able to undercut them )

It's posts like this that are worth their weight in gold.

[Kai]

I see so many Discord servers of traders doing that and roughly breaking even, because they just can't resist the FOMO or they ignore the prices on offer

see some suggestion too about price but i really cant figure it out if the price has value on it or not
both team performance, league habbit, etc is calculated in the price. so even if i enter trade exactly at 70th minutes, price offered to me will be vary according to those factor
and i dont know if the price is good or bad, all i can track right know is my profit and goal rate / win rate

This is normal, nobody knows what are good/fair/poor prices until they learn from experience.

A simple analogy would be going grocery shopping and seeing basically the same products next to each other at vastly different prices. You can already tell which prices are silly are which ones look value. Or take your favourite beer, you know the normal price at your local supermarket so when you see it being sold for much more elsewhere you instantly recognize it's overpriced etc. Same with football, you can pick a corner of the market and learn its prices.

You mentioned 70mins here for example, that's a very good time period to place your entries. If you're on the goals markets one thing you could track is the decay rate on prices, but your PnL has all the relevant data anyway. Say you backed Overs on a match where Chelsea are big favourites but 5mins later the Unders price has already come crashing down, this can give you a hint whether it was a good bet or not. In another more even match the price may have stalled in those 5 minutes with increased lay activity if a goal really feels imminent.

This is the general problem with rigid timing strategies, they force your own timing onto markets where timing itself is often the key. A huge fail on a conceptual level if you ask me.

Overall I've won from trades and bets that I have to admit afterwards had no value, those roughly even out over the long term. I have also won from those that had good value, this is where the expected profit comes from. But what I ACTIVELY try to avoid is taking on trades with poor value as it's a no-brainer, as tempting as it feels in the moment even when you know what's coming you need to stay disciplined because you're only going to lose long term, or undo the good work you've already done.

That's where I see most people struggle, with FOMO or boredom etc, they bet on the expected outcome in matches where top teams are always expected to score loads of goals. You have to have a real think about that concept. It may be the case of, if it's too obvious it's obviously wrong. Worst thing is, in the moment they think they got it spot on and start high-fiving each other, but at what price?

Looking at your strategy in the opening post, these are all different bets and trades for different situations but you're trying to squeeze them into your selections, when it should be the other way around really. So I'd say that -29 points is about the right expected result there.

That being said, a lot of football traders are just waiting for goals from different shortlist services. Meanwhile, some pros scalp those same markets and end up winning either way.

Hopefully some food for thought there.

[stvlie]

Thank you to everyone for all the expert input.
To be honest, I may not be able to fully digest everything suggested in this thread right now. Maybe next year, if I’m still trading and have gained more experience and screen time, I’ll be able to see things from a different angle or “click” with something new.

According to the service I use (and I think FootyStats also provides this), the average percentage of over 0.5 SH goals after the 70th minute over the past few years is around 50%. Meanwhile, the average percentage for over 0.5 FH goals after the 20th minute is about 51%.

For now, I believe my focus should be on finding the right balance between:

Match selection -- ( still depend on the shortlist + last5/10 prematch stats )
In-play stats (entry timing) -- ( looking for action as entry confirmation, starting from 15th minute for FH, and 65th minute for SH)
Price offered
Risk and reward ratio

Beyond that, I admit I might not be fully capable of understanding the deeper points just yet.

thanks

[Kai]

To be honest, I may not be able to fully digest everything suggested in this thread right now.

No worries, from personal experience the concepts that feel the hardest to digest are usually the ones we need the most.

In the past I would have loved an ELI5 summary of things I didn't understand, but today you can literally ask AI to break anything down step by step, if you give it the right context.

Bit more on that in this thread, just saying you can't possibly know all the blind spots until they manifest as losses : viewtopic.php?p=342469#p342469