why i stopped trading and went back to straight bet instead

[cyxstudio]

I used to buy into the idea of trading because it is heavily advertised by influencers. bla bla you can secure your profit by trading out bla bla.. and all that.

but i now have gone back to just doing straight bets.

The only thing that matters in this game is whether you think the prices offered are off its "true value". Everything else is just a gimmick.

If you think you can find good value, a straight bet is sufficient to be profitable long term. Trading out, ironically may work against you if you dont get good odds to exit.

And i really hate trading now, a fire and forget straight bet is so much more convenient and time saving. Early in the morning you scrap the web for fixtures, populate all the data, crunch your numbers and pull up your spread sheet, read the news and add a bit of qualitative analysis in there and place your bets and go off to do your own things for the rest of the day. Who can hate that?

In the past i have made rage bets when trading live in play. Entire season's good work destroyed just like that. Straight bets remove that risk altogether. In fact i dont even watch the games now.

I am not saying opportunities dont exists with trading, in fact i am inclined to believe there are even more opportunities to find good value in play, Its just that in order to do that you need to be able to tell what are the chances of :

Home team winning when they are 1 -0 down and there is only 45 minutes left to play.

vs just

Home team winning in 90 min.

Obviously the latter is easier to predict (but also more efficient ).

And as the game is ongoing, your predicted odds have to be updated in real time as well.

you need to have good knowledge in mathematics to be able to calculate that, i should probably focus on getting a phd in math first.

In play odds history are notoriously hard to find, without that i cant build a good model. Of course, the lack of information also means the in play market will be more inefficient, and present more opportunities, but like i said, i simply dont have the knowledge to capitalize on that right now.

I have started doing straight bets from last season and i am going to continue this season and its working for me.

[Kai]

There are different truths about the market, but the only one that really matters is the one that works for you

Some are universal, some are nuanced and personal etc... but whatever you pick up from others, sooner or later you have no choice but to think for yourself

There's just not much point being a random NPC using borrowed opinions in your own journey, surely that's the one story where you're supposed to be the main character?

[wearthefoxhat]

I used to buy into the idea of trading because it is heavily advertised by influencers. bla bla you can secure your profit by trading out bla bla.. and all that.

but i now have gone back to just doing straight bets.

The only thing that matters in this game is whether you think the prices offered are off its "true value". Everything else is just a gimmick.

If you think you can find good value, a straight bet is sufficient to be profitable long term. Trading out, ironically may work against you if you dont get good odds to exit.

And i really hate trading now, a fire and forget straight bet is so much more convenient and time saving. Early in the morning you scrap the web for fixtures, populate all the data, crunch your numbers and pull up your spread sheet, read the news and add a bit of qualitative analysis in there and place your bets and go off to do your own things for the rest of the day. Who can hate that?

In the past i have made rage bets when trading live in play. Entire season's good work destroyed just like that. Straight bets removed that risk altogether. In fact i dont even watch the games now.

I am not saying opportunities dont exists with trading, in fact i am inclined to believe there are even more opportunities to find good value in play, Its just that in order to do that you need to be able to tell what are the chances of :

Home team winning when they are 1 -0 down and there is only 45 minutes left to play.

vs just

Home team winning in 90 min.

Obviously the latter is easier to predict (but also more efficient ).

And as the game is ongoing, your predicted odds have to be updated in real time as well.

you need to have good knowledge in mathematics to be able to calculate that, i should probably focus on getting a phd in math first.

In play odds history are notoriously hard to find, without that i can build a good model. Of course, the lack of information also means the in play market will be more inefficient, and present more opportunities, but like i said, i simply dont have the knowledge to capitalize on that right now.

I have started doing straight bets from last season and i am going to continue this season and its working for me.

There's a guy called Chris Fawcett that got restricted finding "true value" and multiplying that edge in the form of football acca's and made £100.000+ doing so. Some of the markets were over/under, FHgoals, home/draw/aways...etc and there were many that he bet, wherever it supported his edge.

I agree, with the right application, especially with GPT or summat similar in your corner, the opportunities are endless. The acca's idea is a personal choice, I prefer to specialise in UK football using excel stuff on singles/doubles max.

Purely trading in the form of value entry/exit is not for everyone, my preference is to mix the two depending on how volatile the market is.

I also agree with Kai about finding your own way. If you rely on someone else's selections and they disappear into the ether never to return, your left holding your tadger with no idea on what to do next.

[ShaunWhite]

"trading" is straight betting. The only difference is that it's a straight bet on the direction and size of a price change, rather than on the eventual outcome.

[jamesedwards]

This is football I assume?

I'm coming to the conclusion that it's not possible to profit long term on large scale football automation using the market numbers only.

If you take offers then you're beaten by the spread. If you offer then you're always getting picked off for value by people with better info than you. I've created several automations that should, in theory, be marginally +EV but they fail every time.

Is there anyone out there who can confirm otherwise from their own experience?

[wearthefoxhat]

I'm coming to the conclusion that it's not possible to profit long term on large scale football automation using the market numbers only.

If you take offers then you're beaten by the spread. If you offer then you're always getting picked off for value by people with better info than you. I've created several automations that should, in theory, be marginally +EV but they fail every time.

You're not alone, I've heard this from another source when trying to cover match data on a large scale. My preference is to dip my toe into the markets that are well established, with liquidity, specialise, and scale up the staking instead. Creating a measurable tissue price on chosen markets is one way to go.

It is important to accept that there are people out there with better info, but I also realised they can be beaten under certain conditions when they over/under value some data and offer the wrong price. Of course, it's a matter of opinion too.

[wearthefoxhat]

"trading" is straight betting. The only difference is that it's a straight bet on the direction and size of a price change, rather than on the eventual outcome.

Yes, you've said that before and well put.

[Euler]

As others have said, focus on what works for you.

But trading will always yeild more for the risk you take than betting, in the long term. There are many reasons for this.

The thing I like about trading is there are so many scenarios where it will work above straight betting. You can have a perfectly efficient betting market and still make money trading. The price can start here, go there and end up back where is started but you still make money.

Contrary to popular belief, I don't see trading as predicting a price movement, I see it as selling volatility. That's where I make my money.

I'd say footy is a hard trading product as there variability is so high and it's ultimately dependent on a few key moments. Not ideal.

[Kai]

But trading will always yeild more for the risk you take than betting, in the long term. There are many reasons for this.

The thing I like about trading is there are so many scenarios where it will work above straight betting. You can have a perfectly efficient betting market and still make money trading. The price can start here, go there and end up back where is started but you still make money.

Contrary to popular belief, I don't see trading as predicting a price movement, I see it as selling volatility. That's where I make my money.

I'd say footy is a hard trading product as there variability is so high and it's ultimately dependent on a few key moments. Not ideal.

I feel the same pretty much, but can never seem to find the right words, to have a real go at breaking down some of the misconceptions or help explain some of the unique benfits etc

I remember not understanding the "selling volatility" term the first time I saw you use it and had to look it up, only to realize that I was already doing that

It's a shame, because there are excellent examples played out almost on a daily basis... but at the same time I'm also quite content there are opposing views, the more the merrier as they say

[ruthlessimon]

I’m not a fan of the term “selling volatility”. A 3.5 → 1.9 steam isn’t automatically a lay - it’s just information. Blindly fading is gambling; trading is reading flow: is this favourite being laid, or is the move still being backed? Moves live on a spectrum between momentum and mean reversion, and trading edge is spotting when flow shifts, not assuming every move snaps back. A trader with a giant edge probably can "sell volatility" but for us mortals we need flow to show us the way

[Anbell]

I'm coming to the conclusion that it's not possible to profit long term on large scale football automation using the market numbers only.

I find it best to say/think something like: *I* havent *yet* found a way to profit from this market....

There's always profits right there every day

[jamesedwards]

I'm coming to the conclusion that it's not possible to profit long term on large scale football automation using the market numbers only.

I find it best to say/think something like: *I* havent *yet* found a way to profit from this market....

There's always profits right there every day

Intrigued to know if there is anyone here who profits from just Bet Angel info on football?

[Kai]

Intrigued to know if there is anyone here who profits from just Bet Angel info on football?

Never used it but it has more than enough in its toolkit imho, probably just depends on your angle

I’m not a fan of the term “selling volatility”. A 3.5 → 1.9 steam isn’t automatically a lay - it’s just information. Blindly fading is gambling; trading is reading flow: is this favourite being laid, or is the move still being backed? Moves live on a spectrum between momentum and mean reversion, and trading edge is spotting when flow shifts, not assuming every move snaps back. A trader with a giant edge probably can "sell volatility" but for us mortals we need flow to show us the way

Yea, can't just assume something happens every time. A lot of market info gets lumped under the umbrella term of order flow but it also comes down to basically making judgement calls based off past experience and whatever other factors impact that particular market.

If you've traded enough markets you should have a rough idea at least of how big the traded range can be for each market type and how far moves can realistically go, and more importantly you also know outlier activity when you see it.

Obviously it also helps not getting absolutely rinsed when you get things completely wrong

[ShaunWhite]

Yea, can't just assume something happens every time.

Yep, and therein lies the difference between trading a market subjectively vs trading all markets algorithmically. Either shit happens and you just roll with it for the sake of the long term numbers, or you throw your chimp mind into the mix hoping it can to do better. And nere the twain shall meet.

[ruthlessimon]

A lot of market info gets lumped under the umbrella term of order flow but it also comes down to basically making judgement calls based off past experience and whatever other factors impact that particular market.

Yes. Tbh, I’d put pure order flow in the same category as psychology - powerful, but almost useless/dangerous on its own. Order flow is a timing trigger, not a reason. Becuase there are always two valid reads on any move: one person’s trend is another’s overextension; one person’s pullback is another’s reversal confirmation. & spotting the structures where one side tends to dominate only comes from experience, data or mentors.