why i stopped trading and went back to straight bet instead

[ForFolksSake]

Yea, can't just assume something happens every time.

Yep, and therein lies the difference between trading a market subjectively vs trading all markets algorithmically. Either shit happens and you just roll with it for the sake of the long term numbers, or you throw your chimp mind into the mix hoping it can to do better. And nere the twain shall meet.

Yep....and when the 'sh*t ' happens .... just make sure you have a genius plan to deal with the or risk 'wipeout'

[ShaunWhite]

Yep....and when the 'sh*t ' happens .... just make sure you have a genius plan

With automation then it's actually not that way, it's usually the case that conditions to mitigate losses also take money off the gains. You accept the varience in order to maximise the bottom line. But trading manually you can be much more surgical and control the individual returns much better.

[ShaunWhite]

Order flow is a timing trigger, not a reason.

You're kidding right? Markets are supply and demand, and seeing how that is currently vs recently vs normally is a damn good reason to bet.

But as you say, everyone sees things differently, and without that difference markets would be static and we'd all be making nothing. So you do you

(btw, what's a timing trigger?)

[Euler]

I've always struggled to understand why people don't get why I use the phrase, selling volatility.

At the end of the day, the sum of volatility exceeds the actual outcome, so any excess is up for grabs in profits. That's how I approach the markets.

[ForFolksSake]

[EDIT]

[jamesedwards]

Yep....and when the 'sh*t ' happens .... just make sure you have a genius plan

With automation then it's actually not that way, it's usually the case that conditions to mitigate losses also take money off the gains. You accept the varience in order to maximise the bottom line. But trading manually you can be much more surgical and control the individual returns much better.

... as long as the 'variance' ( sh*t ) doesn't wipe out the bottom line e.g horse get's disqualified / dead heats

Today's "Angle of the dangle" came with a big fat dose of disqualification!

[ForFolksSake]

[EDIT]

[Kai]

Order flow is a timing trigger, not a reason.

You're kidding right? Markets are supply and demand, and seeing how that is currently vs recently vs normally is a damn good reason to bet.

But as you say, everyone sees things differently, and without that difference markets would be static and we'd all be making nothing. So you do you

(btw, what's a timing trigger?)

I have to agree that order flow means more to me than just timing your entries/exits, a lot of the time it's the only reason I place my bets. But I get that people talk from different context and different markets.

Like, sometimes I expect a move but the order flow doesn't really support my opinion, so I'm more cautious with how much I stake and where I position. IF I stake at all.

Other times I have zero opinion but the order flow points the way or throws up an opportunity, this is the ideal scenario for any trader I think (biasless). It's probably more subtle than obvious but it gives me more confidence.

Then comes a time when you're sort of anticipating one thing, but the order flow is adamant that it's trying to do the opposite. Guess who you should listen to there, your ego or the market The stronger your opinion here the more likely you're not going to do anything, which is a massive shame and a huge waste of opportunity!

Inevitably you run into markets where your strong opinions are backed by order flow, and tbh if you only end up with an average result out of those scenarios you probably butchered the execution somewhere.

Obviously when you see/anticipate nothing or you have no idea wtf is going on, a genuine coin flip or a lifeless market, doing nothing is the only +EV play. And if that is 90% of the available markets, then so be it.

What I'm saying is (I suppose), is that with certain markets and trading styles your opinion can only get in your way, but near impossible not to form them. While on others like IP you really need them.

[Kai]

I've always struggled to understand why people don't get why I use the phrase, selling volatility.

I think it's just the terminology of it that's a bit of a brain scratcher, probably for most people without a financial trading background etc

[jamesedwards]

... as long as the 'variance' ( sh*t ) doesn't wipe out the bottom line e.g horse get's disqualified / dead heats

Today's "Angle of the dangle" came with a big fat dose of disqualification!

Ffos Las 16:40 - have you seen the 'head on' angle

https://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-po ... 31755/true

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p13yZAjhU0M

Yes I saw it at the time. I had already bet FPTP in the final few yards, but then the photo betting after the slo-mo was a big clue that it was going to look worse in the head-on. I thought about greening up at that point but didn't. At least I didn't pile in on the photo, that's a mistake I would have made in the past.

[ShaunWhite]

... as long as the 'variance' ( sh*t ) doesn't wipe out the bottom line e.g horse get's disqualified / dead heats

Why would you still be holding a position when they cross the line? That's punting not trading.

If a decent strategy is staked and executed right then nothing should wipe you out, not even 2 or 3 blue moon events.

[jamesedwards]

... as long as the 'variance' ( sh*t ) doesn't wipe out the bottom line e.g horse get's disqualified / dead heats

Why would you still be holding a position when they cross the line? That's punting not trading.

It's fine if you're holding a position on the winner.

No point wasting green late in a race on a load of -EV trades on horses without any chance.

[ForFolksSake]

[EDIT]

[ShaunWhite]

I've always struggled to understand why people don't get why I use the phrase, selling volatility.

At the end of the day, the sum of volatility exceeds the actual outcome, so any excess is up for grabs in profits. That's how I approach the markets.

Any confusion might come from perspective and what people see as being instrumental in their method. You see price movement, volatility, as key because you’re trading movement itself. But others see markets as effectively static when viewed in aggregate (the blind betting at scale is b/e view). Their yield comes from crossflow, because scale averages the price movement to the point where there's effectively no movement and all that's left is the spread, and that becomes selling liquidity.

Neither is the wrong, and both are required. You need people selling liquidity for the people selling volatility to operate. And without the volatility merchants the liquidity guys wouldn't get their fills. (simplistic obv)

Or another take, some people trade markets, and some people trade 'the market'. (a mathematical set containing all markets) and some just click the mouse and make money without ever needing to know what name things have

[ShaunWhite]

It's fine if you're holding a position on the winner.

No point wasting green late in a race on a load of -EV trades on horses without any chance.

Haha I thought about you when I typed that, the difference is you know what you're doing, and can still pay the mortgage when lady luck isn't playing fair. You never get 'wiped out' or even close to it.