why i stopped trading and went back to straight bet instead

[ForFolksSake]

[EDIT]

[ShaunWhite]

He's just keeping his fingers crossed he doesn't suffer three in a row

When you bet on thousands of situations a year then these things will inevitably happen. It's just odds, you'll get 3 in a row or you might get 6 in a row once a year . You have to expect it, and you might take 2 weeks to get back from it. So your staking, bank and risk need to be such that it's not a disaster because you know it's going to happen eventually. But equally you'll get runs of outrageous good luck too, so it's all just the fun of the game.

Changes your life perspective too, when you see 1000/1 shots winning roughly every 5 days on average then when you hear there's a 1000/1 change something will happen to you, it doesn't sound especially unlikely. . It still is, but doesn't feel like it is.

[ruthlessimon]

Order flow is a timing trigger, not a reason.

You're kidding right? Markets are supply and demand, and seeing how that is currently vs recently vs normally is a damn good reason to bet.

But as you say, everyone sees things differently, and without that difference markets would be static and we'd all be making nothing. So you do you

(btw, what's a timing trigger?)

sometimes I expect a move but the order flow doesn't really support my opinion, so I'm more cautious with how much I stake and where I position. IF I stake at all.

Other times I have zero opinion but the order flow points the way or throws up an opportunity, this is the ideal scenario for any trader I think (biasless). It's probably more subtle than obvious but it gives me more confidence.

Then comes a time when you're sort of anticipating one thing, but the order flow is adamant that it's trying to do the opposite. Guess who you should listen to there, your ego or the market The stronger your opinion here the more likely you're not going to do anything, which is a massive shame and a huge waste of opportunity!

Inevitably you run into markets where your strong opinions are backed by order flow, and tbh if you only end up with an average result out of those scenarios you probably butchered the execution somewhere.

It all depends on the quality of the trader. Most who are blind to structure/context (i.e. only using order flow as the reason to bet (especially if manual)) will get shredded because they’re always late. Every market wobble looks like a reversal if you don’t have the bigger picture.

Real edge (imo) comes from combining order flow with context. A £10000 back bet on Man Utd isn’t automatically a reason to back Utd. Some vital questions are: Did I expect that £10,000? When did it arrive? How are others reacting? Where are we in the traded range? Did team news just drop? etc. Context turns raw flow into useful information.

[jamesedwards]

Today's "Angle of the dangle" came with a big fat dose of disqualification!

Ffos Las 16:40 - have you seen the 'head on' angle

https://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-po ... 31755/true

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p13yZAjhU0M

Yes I saw it at the time. I had already bet FPTP in the final few yards, but then the photo betting after the slo-mo was a big clue that it was going to look worse in the head-on. I thought about greening up at that point but didn't. At least I didn't pile in on the photo, that's a mistake I would have made in the past.

Sals 18:43. Very close photo and now a Stewards. FPTP 1.50 to be chucked. This time I greened up.

[Kai]

A £10000 back bet on Man Utd isn’t automatically a reason to back Utd.

To be fair there's never a reason to back United these days

[jamesedwards]

Ffos Las 16:40 - have you seen the 'head on' angle

https://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-po ... 31755/true

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p13yZAjhU0M

Yes I saw it at the time. I had already bet FPTP in the final few yards, but then the photo betting after the slo-mo was a big clue that it was going to look worse in the head-on. I thought about greening up at that point but didn't. At least I didn't pile in on the photo, that's a mistake I would have made in the past.

Sals 18:43. Very close photo and now a Stewards. FPTP 1.50 to be chucked. This time I greened up.

DQ'd!

Saved me a few grand. Learning and getting better every day!

[ruthlessimon]

A £10000 back bet on Man Utd isn’t automatically a reason to back Utd.

To be fair there's never a reason to back United these days

Goldie blowing another bank chasing orders

[ruthlessimon]

I've always struggled to understand why people don't get why I use the phrase, selling volatility.

At the end of the day, the sum of volatility exceeds the actual outcome, so any excess is up for grabs in profits. That's how I approach the markets.

I always thought your edge came from deploying hundreds of small-stake (logical) strategies and testing them scientifically - which I think is brilliant, the closest thing to pure market research.

But this... ‘the sum of volatility exceeds the actual outcome, so any excess is up for grabs in profits’ ummmm.....

Imo your line explains why an edge exists, but it isn’t how the edge was discovered. The real edge comes from your disciplined testing, not from the principle - which is why saying “I sell volatility” imo is misleading

[ShaunWhite]

Some vital questions are: Did I expect that £10,000? When did it arrive? How are others reacting? Where are we in the traded range? Did team news just drop? etc. Context turns raw flow into useful information.

If you look up Analysis Paralysis in the encyclopedia...

I always thought manual traders just practiced until they could catch a fly with chopsticks. By the time your enquiry has made a determination it'll be dark.

[ruthlessimon]

Some vital questions are: Did I expect that £10,000? When did it arrive? How are others reacting? Where are we in the traded range? Did team news just drop? etc. Context turns raw flow into useful information.

If you look up Analysis Paralysis in the encyclopedia...

I always thought manual traders just practiced until they could catch a fly with chopsticks. By the time your enquiry has made a determination it'll be dark.

Life is all about balance imo. Try & read every tick manually = extinct by instinct. Look for too much context = analysis paralysis.

If the manual trader expects the £10000 they can dive in headfirst on the next tick (i.e. the £10000 is their river card).

If they are unsure they wait.

A manual trader trying to read every tick of order flow will do their brain in & lose to the hft's. They need to play a different game. A contextual game over seconds, minutes and longer