Today's Horse Racing

[Emtaxx]

9 months into trading and I'm now winning 40% of the time. This game is fkn hard man lol. I'm running out of ideas!

[jamesedwards]

9 months into trading and I'm now winning 40% of the time. This game is fkn hard man lol. I'm running out of ideas!

If you are losing by less than [commission paid + the average spread] then you are beating the odds and therefore getting closer to profitability.

This may sound overly simplistic, but make sure you thoroughly investigate each of these separately;
> How can I increase the amount of times that I win?
> How can I increase the average value of each win?
> How can I decrease the amount of times that I lose?
> How can I decrease the average value of each loss?

[jamesedwards]

z222.jpg

Pre-off move

Down Royal 17:54.

[Emtaxx]

9 months into trading and I'm now winning 40% of the time. This game is fkn hard man lol. I'm running out of ideas!

If you are losing by less than [commission paid + the average spread] then you are beating the odds and therefore getting closer to profitability.

This may sound overly simplistic, but make sure you thoroughly investigate each of these separately;
> How can I increase the amount of times that I win?
> How can I increase the average value of each win?
> How can I decrease the amount of times that I lose?
> How can I decrease the average value of each loss?

Thanks James.
Im going to work through things for another week and then report back with some data. I’ve had my head down and made some tools but need to push it to the next level… my bank it’s currently
Going sideways really… doesn’t go up or down… which is annoying! But least were near À 50 percentile mark

[ForFolksSake]

9 months into trading and I'm now winning 40% of the time. This game is fkn hard man lol. I'm running out of ideas!

I'm running out of ideas!

... it's impossible to run out of ideas

... but it's not impossible to run out of patience

[jamesedwards]

Haydock 16:07. Someone left a grand up at 19.0 on Jer Batt when 10 lengths down in 3rd with a furlong to run.

[ShaunWhite]

9 months into trading and I'm now winning 40% of the time. This game is fkn hard man lol. I'm running out of ideas!

If you are losing by less than [commission paid + the average spread] then you are beating the odds and therefore getting closer to profitability.

This may sound overly simplistic, but make sure you thoroughly investigate each of these separately;
> How can I increase the amount of times that I win?
> How can I increase the average value of each win?
> How can I decrease the amount of times that I lose?
> How can I decrease the average value of each loss?

And look for how/when/where punters lose, and be the one they lose to. Ie problem inversion theory, don't look for how to be successful, eliminate the reasons that might stop you. Like you're never going to emulate Peter because got 25yrs of obsessive trading under his belt, but you can stop yourself doing what's caused others to fail.

But it comes down to one thing, understand the maths that explains why one pile of 10000 bets adds up to a profit and another pile of 10000 bets don't. That's it really.

[ForFolksSake]

Haydock 16:07. Someone left a grand up at 19.0 on Jer Batt when 10 lengths down in 3rd with a furlong to run.

06/09/2025 16:10:40: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 5.7.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 6.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 6.4.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 12.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 8.6.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 8.8.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 10.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 10.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 12.
06/09/2025 16:10:42: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 12.
06/09/2025 16:10:42: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:42: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 12.
06/09/2025 16:10:44: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:45: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:46: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:46: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:46: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19

[jamesedwards]

Navan 14:15 265B Irish Stallion Farms EBF Rated Race
The Raceday Stewards reviewed the riding of Freya Frain, rider of Cactus, trained by A.P.O'Brien, where she appeared to stop riding just before the line. Having viewed the recording of the race, the Raceday Stewards were satisfied that this had not affected her finishing position and were satisfied that no further action was warranted.

She's a lucky young lady - looked bad to me. Her first ever ride under rules, which might have helped sway the stewards decision?

[ANGELS15]

Navan 14:15 265B Irish Stallion Farms EBF Rated Race
The Raceday Stewards reviewed the riding of Freya Frain, rider of Cactus, trained by A.P.O'Brien, where she appeared to stop riding just before the line. Having viewed the recording of the race, the Raceday Stewards were satisfied that this had not affected her finishing position and were satisfied that no further action was warranted.

She's a lucky young lady - looked bad to me. Her first ever ride under rules, which might have helped sway the stewards decision?

Hm? I'm a little confused by this as we've all seen plenty of races where a jockey stopped riding too soon but I didn't think that was the case here. The commentator didn't seem to notice anything untoward and even Timeform who do pick up on these things didn't mention it in the horse's post analysis comment.

However maybe the stewards had a better clearer vantage point (the race picture was zoomed out). It seemed to me that Freya Fain was aware of Slaudeen challenging and didn't give up riding just beaten by a good horse with a very strong top jockey.

[jamesedwards]

Navan 14:15 265B Irish Stallion Farms EBF Rated Race
The Raceday Stewards reviewed the riding of Freya Frain, rider of Cactus, trained by A.P.O'Brien, where she appeared to stop riding just before the line. Having viewed the recording of the race, the Raceday Stewards were satisfied that this had not affected her finishing position and were satisfied that no further action was warranted.

She's a lucky young lady - looked bad to me. Her first ever ride under rules, which might have helped sway the stewards decision?

Hm? I'm a little confused by this as we've all seen plenty of races where a jockey stopped riding too soon but I didn't think that was the case here. The commentator didn't seem to notice anything untoward and even Timeform who do pick up on these things didn't mention it in the horse's post analysis comment.

However maybe the stewards had a better clearer vantage point (the race picture was zoomed out). It seemed to me that Freya Fain was aware of Slaudeen challenging and didn't give up riding just beaten by a good horse with a very strong top jockey.

Interesting how we can all have different takes on things like this. I usually find I'm concentrating so much on the relative speed and positions of the horses that I miss the jockeys easing up early, yet in this race it stood out to me like a sore thumb.


<EDIT>
Just revisited the replay. You can't do that!

z225.jpg

[ForFolksSake]

Haydock 16:07. Someone left a grand up at 19.0 on Jer Batt when 10 lengths down in 3rd with a furlong to run.

06/09/2025 16:10:40: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 5.7.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 6.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 6.4.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 12.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 8.6.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 8.8.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 10.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 10.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 12.
06/09/2025 16:10:42: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 12.
06/09/2025 16:10:42: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:42: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 12.
06/09/2025 16:10:44: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:45: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:46: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:46: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:46: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19

Very interesting - I'm surprised nobody commented on this

[jamesedwards]

Haydock 16:07. Someone left a grand up at 19.0 on Jer Batt when 10 lengths down in 3rd with a furlong to run.

06/09/2025 16:10:40: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 5.7.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 6.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 6.4.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 12.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 8.6.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 8.8.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 10.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 10.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 12.
06/09/2025 16:10:42: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 12.
06/09/2025 16:10:42: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:42: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 12.
06/09/2025 16:10:44: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:45: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:46: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:46: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:46: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19

Very interesting - I'm surprised nobody commented on this

I didn't understand it to be honest. Why were you unable to place a lay bet at 19 but lay bets were going in at lower prices?

[ForFolksSake]

06/09/2025 16:10:40: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 5.7.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 6.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 6.4.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 12.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 8.6.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 8.8.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 10.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 10.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:41: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 12.
06/09/2025 16:10:42: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 12.
06/09/2025 16:10:42: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:42: [G_Auto 1] : £ Lay bet placed on Jer Batt at 12.
06/09/2025 16:10:44: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:45: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:46: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:46: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19.
06/09/2025 16:10:46: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19

Very interesting - I'm surprised nobody commented on this

I didn't understand it to be honest.

Someone left a grand up at 19.0 on Jer Batt

I can't reconcile that with

06/09/2025 16:10:46: [G_Auto 1] : Unable to place lay bet on Jer Batt at 19

[Sonny]

Hm, if they've made an announcement I have missed it.

Anybody got any info on what's happening / timeline at Fontwell Park?
No info on the BHS twitter so far.
I guess they are waiting for the ambulance to return (?)